Asia Plus Securities warns of three headwinds pressuring Asian equities, fears Thailand's current account deficit will worsen

MacroDigital FinanceCommodity Impact 4
โดย InfoQuest·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Asia Plus Securities has warned that three risk factors are pressuring risky assets worldwide, dragging Asian equities sharply lower, and expressed concern over the Thai economy after the second-quarter current account deficit reached as high as 17.7 billion US dollars, or about 12 percent of GDP, the most severe compared with past crises. The brokerage recommends investors adjust portfolios defensively, focusing on commodities, energy, retail, and high-dividend stocks, while highlighting PTT, CPF, and KLINIQ as safe-haven picks. The three risk factors are tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed Brent crude to 91.3 US dollars per barrel, the highest in 25 days; the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to 4.71 percent and the 30-year yield touching 5.29 percent, pressuring technology stock valuations; and institutional investors increasing short positions in NASDAQ100 futures by more than 41 percent over two weeks to 109,700 contracts. That sent the NASDAQ index to its lowest in two weeks and dragged the KOSPI down 5.46 percent, the Nikkei down 2.37 percent, Taiwan down 1.20 percent, and Singapore down 1.16 percent. For the Thai economy, the current account in the second quarter of 2026 swung to a deficit for the first time in eight quarters, due to surging imported fuel costs and freight rates. The trade balance recorded a deficit of 12.1 billion US dollars, while the services balance deficit also widened, pressuring the baht. Foreign investors opened net short positions in TFEX as high as 23,212 contracts in a single day and have sold a net total of more than 6.2 billion baht in Thai equities since the start of the month. Asia Plus Securities recommends a selective buy strategy in three main groups: beneficiaries of higher oil prices and freight rates such as PTTEP, PSL, RCL, and PRM; companies with recovering third-quarter 2026 earnings and benefits from a weaker baht such as CPF, ITC, DELTA, HANA, KCE, BH, BDMS, and PR9; and domestic consumption, tourism, and advertising media names such as CPALL, CENTEL, ERW, and VGI. The top picks of the day are PTT, which benefits from oil prices and offers high dividends; CPF, which gains from the weaker baht and recovering meat prices and is set to trade ex-dividend on 31 August 2026 with an interim dividend of 0.45 baht per share; and KLINIQ, whose second-half outlook is strong with a chance of raising its sales target from the current expected growth of 20 percent year on year.

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