Bernstein cuts BMW price target to €85 on weaker China outlook

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Bernstein cut its price target on BMW to €85 from €108 while maintaining an Outperform rating, citing a weaker outlook for China, lower earnings expectations, and reduced profitability forecasts. The analysts revised their estimates after BMW lowered its 2026 guidance earlier this month, reducing its expected automotive EBIT margin to 1%-3% from 4%-6% and cutting its automotive free cash flow forecast to more than €2.5 billion from more than €4.5 billion. China remains the biggest concern, with the report now forecasting BMW's sales in the country will decline 13% this year, followed by another 10% drop in 2027, leading to a 2.5% fall in global vehicle deliveries in 2026. The weaker demand outlook prompted a roughly 30% reduction in the 2026 group EBIT forecast, with automotive EBIT margins now expected to recover gradually from 3.0% in 2026 to 4.0% in 2027 and 6.1% in 2028. Attention is now shifting to BMW's capital markets day in late September, where investors will seek details on restoring margins to the 8%-10% target range, while the report maintains a positive long-term view based on the Neue Klasse vehicle platform's expected cost savings and improved profitability under new Chief Executive Milan Nedeljković.

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