Bernstein Says Clarity Act Likely to Fail, but SEC and CFTC Will Accelerate Crypto Oversight

RegulationAnalyst
โดย The Block·Read original
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Analysts at Bernstein say the Clarity Act, the most significant crypto market structure bill in U.S. history, is likely to fail, as the Senate has only next week left before recess to pass the legislation. This comes after Galaxy Research cut the odds of passage in 2026 to just 30%. While the failure may trigger a negative reaction in digital asset markets, Bernstein expects policy support from the SEC and CFTC to accelerate under Project Crypto, with strong interpretive guidance on token taxonomy, DeFi rules, and self-custody, as well as fast-tracked innovation waivers for token issuances exempt from securities rules for a limited time. CFTC Chair Michael Selig has warned that regulators will have to write all the rules if Congress fails to act, calling for federal standards for certainty and consumer protection. Bernstein also expects regulatory support for asset tokenization, including tokenized real-world assets, perpetual futures, and prediction markets, to continue even if the bill stalls. While the bill's failure would be disappointing, the brokerage says, because it would provide lasting regulatory clarity and encourage banks, broker-dealers, and exchanges to invest in the digital asset industry, negotiations are ongoing, with bipartisan senators submitting an ethics compromise proposal to the White House before the Senate recesses on August 7.

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