Bitcoin's Late Summer Rally Faces Fed Rate Decision and Senate Crypto Vote

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โดย Reuters·USGLOBAL·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Bitcoin has rebounded past $70,000 after months at two-year lows of around $60,000, but a Federal Reserve rate decision this week will test that optimism even as a key Senate vote on crypto legislation could provide a surprise tailwind. The world's largest cryptocurrency had slumped roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak of above $126,000 before staging its late-August rally as surging Treasury yields briefly retreated and broader sentiment improved. According to options platform Derive.xyz, the bitcoin options market has flipped bullish for the first time in 12 months, with the 25-delta skew turning positive on August 20 and many traders betting bitcoin could hit $80,000 or higher by December; open interest for the December 25 expiry is clustered at the $80,000 strike with about $710 million in notional value and at $100,000 with roughly $530 million. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have also shown renewed demand, with inflows reaching nearly $2 billion the week of August 17 after eight straight weeks of outflows in May and June. Traders are assigning an 85% likelihood of a rate hike on Wednesday following hot inflation data, and with long-end bond yields nearing 5%, analysts say the question now is whether bitcoin can sustain momentum. The U.S. Senate is set to take a procedural vote Tuesday on the Clarity Act, a key crypto bill that would define which tokens qualify as securities versus commodities, which Sygnum investment strategist Can-Luca Köymen said the market has likely priced as failing to pass.

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Traders assign an 85% likelihood of a Fed rate hike Wednesday following hot inflation data, pushing the policy rate/yield up.

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