Miner-Treasury Hybrids

This week, Bitcoin strengthened its downward trend following the US FOMC rate hike, military tensions between the United States and Iran, and the rejection of the US CLARITY Act's move to deliberation, with the price falling to around $75,000, or roughly 11.7 million yen. Next week, a stock market correction triggered by the US rate hike shift and the US-Iran situation are expected to remain a drag, with the market likely probing lower levels. On the other hand, expectations for large AI-related IPOs and practical progress in crypto asset regulation could help support the market. For the near-term price range, the upside is seen at $80,000, or about 12.48 million yen, while the downside is seen at $70,000, or about 10.92 million yen.

Goldman Sachs reversed its Federal Reserve rate forecast twice in four days, telling clients on the morning of September 15, 2026 that it expected a hike the next day but not another one as its baseline, then shifting within hours of the September 16 decision to call for another 25-basis-point increase in October. The second change followed the Fed's updated rate projections, higher inflation forecasts, and Chair Kevin Warsh's comments on financial conditions. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to raise its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since 2023, and the dot plot showed 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more hike this year while four projected two additional increases. The Fed also raised its 2026 headline Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation forecast to 3.7% and lifted its core inflation forecast. Bitcoin is trading near $76,300, up roughly 18% over the past month but about 34% below its level a year ago, while XRP is near $1.29 after gaining roughly 28% over the past month and remains about 56% lower year over year. An October hike would reach markets with less time to adjust than after September's fully priced move, and the 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% this week for the first time since 2007.

Tom Lee said on September 15 that the fourth quarter could bring one of the biggest rallies of our lifetime, forecasting the S&P 500 to clear 8,200 by year-end, but the Federal Reserve raised rates less than 24 hours later and left the door open to another hike. Ed Yardeni cut his year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400 the next day, moved the old target to mid-2027, and raised his bearish-scenario odds to 30% from 20%, citing higher energy prices and a 10-year Treasury yield that hit 5.00% on September 15. Bitcoin trades at $76,600, down 34% from $116,484 a year ago and needing roughly a 53% gain to return to that level, while XRP at $1.30 is down 56% from $3.09 and would need more than a 130% gain to top $3, and Ethereum at $2,470 needs a 100% gain. Bitcoin's three-month correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has fallen sharply while its relationship with gold has climbed to its highest level in years, weakening the old assumption that crypto simply follows tech stocks. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, holds 846,000 BTC and reported an $8.32 billion unrealized loss in its Q2 results in the July 30, 2026 8-K.

The SEC rejected a nineteenth XRP short ETF while $1.11 billion flowed out of regulated spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs over just 48 hours. The two-day institutional outflow followed a synchronized shock: an unexpected Federal Reserve rate hike and the Senate's blocking of the CLARITY Act, which together triggered panic selling. The crypto market is now attempting a fragile relief bounce this morning as it tries to stabilize after the large-scale exit of institutional capital.

Canaan Inc. reported second quarter FY26 total revenue of $31.9 million, down from $100.2 million in Q2 FY25 and $62.7 million in the first quarter of 2026, alongside a net loss of $97.6 million that was far wider than the $11.1 million loss a year earlier. Product revenue fell to $13.6 million from $71.9 million, and mining revenue dropped to $17.7 million from $28.1 million, as weaker bitcoin prices cut both computing power sold and average selling prices; Canaan sold 2.5 EH/s of computing power in the quarter and its mining segment generated 243 bitcoins while staying cash-positive before depreciation. The company's quarter-end digital asset treasury reached a record 1,915.5 BTC and roughly 3,952 ETH as of June 30, but fair value changes on financial derivatives and cryptocurrency holdings swung to losses of $8.9 million and $9.3 million from year-earlier gains of $23.4 million and $10.6 million, and net foreign exchange losses totaled $3.0 million. Canaan guided third-quarter revenue to $11 million to $15 million, well below the $31.9 million just reported, citing continued weakness in market conditions and customer demand. Institutional sentiment remains weak, with only 6 hedge funds holding positions at the end of Q2 2026, unchanged from the prior quarter, and short interest at 8.90 percent; Invesco is the largest institutional stakeholder with 40.4 million shares, or 5.39 percent of outstanding shares, followed by Weiss Asset Management at 5.19 percent and Galaxy Digital at 1.56 percent.

Bitcoin fell to $74,913, a daily drop of about 4.3%, after the Senate voted 49 to 50 against cloture on a motion to proceed with debate on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, known as the CLARITY Act. Cloture required 60 votes, but four Republican senators joined Democrats in opposition, leaving the measure 11 votes short. The vote effectively stalls the bill after months of negotiations over a U.S. digital asset regulatory framework, and the odds of approval in 2026 on Polymarket plunged to 5% by early Wednesday. Across the crypto market, liquidations reached about $660 million, of which long positions accounted for $571.7 million, the largest long liquidation event since August 22. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $450.4 million, the largest single-day withdrawal since late June.

IREN has signed a roughly US$5.50 billion, five-year partnership with Nvidia tied to its fast-growing AI cloud services platform, prompting JPMorgan analyst Richard Choe to issue a rare double-upgrade on the company. The Nvidia deal sits alongside a US$3.65 billion GPU financing facility, and together the two agreements underpin IREN's goal of scaling to 480MW of AI Cloud capacity by the end of 2026. The company is also winding down Bitcoin mining and expanding vertically integrated AI infrastructure, a material redefinition of its core business model. IREN's narrative projects $8.7 billion in revenue and $504.8 million in earnings by 2029, while the most optimistic analysts had already assumed about US$14.7 billion in revenue and around US$1.3 billion in earnings by that year. The company still faces near-term pressure from sizeable capex, financing needs, and execution risk around large contracted projects.

Ethiopia announced a 77% reduction in electricity supply to Bitcoin mining operations in order to allocate power to households as a priority, after the country suffered drought problems from the El Niño phenomenon that affected its hydropower generation. This measure reverses the situation from when Ethiopia once had cheap surplus electricity to now facing power shortages, and reflects growing pressure on the country's Bitcoin mining industry after the Bitcoin halving event reduced mining revenues. Meanwhile, Bitcoin miners and operators such as Phoenix Group must contend with rising costs and tighter energy constraints.

The U.S. Federal Reserve decided at its September 16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting to raise the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75–4.00%. The hike is the first in about three years, since July 2023, and the vote was unanimous at 12-0. Fed Chair Warsh said at a press conference that 'the plain fact is that inflation is too high, and it has stayed that way for too long,' explaining that the rate increase is a step to return inflation to the 2% target more quickly. In the latest economic projections, the median forecast for real GDP growth is 2.3% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1% from 2026 through 2029. In the dot plot, 16 of the 18 FOMC participants expect at least one more rate hike during 2026, and the median policy rate came to 4.1% at the end of 2026, 4.1% at the end of 2027, and 3.9% at the end of 2028. Bitcoin swung sharply between 75,000 and 76,500 dollars during the press conference, and going forward the focus will be not only on further rate hikes but also on U.S. long-term yields, physical demand, and the profit-and-loss positions of short-term holders.

The Federal Reserve unanimously voted to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the new target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. The unanimous vote marks the central bank's first rate hike in years, and Bitcoin reacted to the decision. The new target range of 3.75% to 4.00% represents a quarter-point increase from the prior level.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $450.4 million in combined net outflows on Sep. 15, erasing the prior session's $159.9 million inflow, after the Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. Fidelity's FBTC led the withdrawals at $214.8 million, followed by BlackRock's IBIT at $161.7 million and Grayscale's GBTC at $44.1 million, with IBIT and FBTC together accounting for roughly $376.5 million of the redemptions. The CLARITY Act fell short of the 60 votes needed to proceed, drawing only 50 in favor, with four Republican senators joining Democrats in opposition; Senator Thom Tillis changed his vote as a procedural step that preserves the possibility of reconsideration. The bill was intended to create a federal market structure for digital assets and clarify responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Despite the outflow, net flows for September remained marginally positive at about $16.8 million, and markets were also bracing for a Federal Reserve decision, with a rate increase widely expected.

Bitcoin fell to around $75,800 on September 16, losing roughly 1.5%, after the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, a market structure bill that would divide U.S. crypto oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The decline was far smaller than the losses suffered by other crypto assets, with XRP down nearly 8%, Ethereum down about 3% and Solana down 3.5%, while Coinbase dropped 8.65% as the regulatory disappointment landed hardest on crypto intermediaries rather than on Bitcoin itself. Rachael Lucas of BTC Markets said the legislation was never the binding constraint for Bitcoin, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold about 6.35% of Bitcoin's circulating supply, faced no immediate rule change because they already operate under existing SEC rules. Macro pressure was already building before the vote, with Brent crude closing at $108.75 and WTI at $105.83 after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline, the 10-year Treasury yield touching its highest intraday level since 2007, and CME FedWatch putting the odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 meeting between 88% and 94%. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $462.7 million of outflows over the four days through the week ending September 11, followed by a $160 million net inflow on September 14 and roughly $450 million of outflows on September 15, leaving traders watching $78,189 as the level that would signal the market is pricing out the regulatory discount, with $75,000, $74,000 and $72,000 as the key levels below.

Bitcoin is trading near $76,000, down 1% over the past 24 hours and roughly 13% year-to-date, with 15 days left before the fourth quarter begins and the Federal Reserve set to deliver its first rate hike in three years. The Fed's decision, due at 2:00 p.m. ET alongside a new dot plot, is expected to lift the upper end of the federal funds rate from 3.75% to 4.00%, while Bank of America expects further hikes in October and December that would take rates to a 4.25% to 4.50% range by year-end, a more aggressive path than current futures pricing reflects. Bitcoin's market cap sits at $1.52 trillion, its 24-hour volume has risen roughly 28% to $37.63 billion, and its realized price is $53,600, leaving the average holder well above cost. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $462.7 million in net outflows over the four days ending September 11, interrupting a $3.8 billion three-week inflow streak, though flows turned positive again on September 14. Prediction markets put Bitcoin's year-end price near its 50-week moving average of about $81,000, with Kalshi's September 15 market pricing the December 31 close near $81,000 and Polymarket giving Bitcoin a 51% chance of touching $90,000 before year-end and a 26% chance of touching $100,000.

The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision at 2 PM ET on September 16, 2026, with the CME FedWatch tool putting the probability of a 25 basis point increase at 92%, which would lift the target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00% and mark the first rate increase since 2023. The decision comes a day after the Senate blocked the CLARITY Act, and ahead of it Bitcoin is trading near $75,903, down 1.44% over 24 hours, XRP is at approximately $1.29, down 7.98%, and Ethereum is at about $2,404, down 3.18%. The Fed has held its target range for five consecutive meetings, with three members dissenting in favor of a hike in July, while August inflation rose 3.4% year over year and core inflation stood at 2.4%. Standard Chartered analysts John Davies and Steve Englander have urged waiting, arguing market expectations have inflated on limited incoming data, a caution echoed by Kevin Warsh, who has expressed skepticism about the dot plot and excluded his own forecast from the June release. Analysts including BMO and Franklin Templeton's Jeff Schulze expect multiple increases ahead, and traders are watching Bitcoin's $74,000 to $78,189 range, with a close below $74,000 confirming a hawkish reading and a close above $78,189 signaling an unexpected hold.

Bitcoin's slide below $76,000 sparked the largest short-term holder capitulation event since September, as traders reacted to the U.S. Senate's failure to advance the CLARITY Act. The CLARITY Act has not been advanced by the Senate. The decline marked the most significant shakeout among short-term holders in months.

The Clarity Act, which would regulate cryptocurrencies broadly, stalled in the US Senate on the 15th. A motion to advance the bill failed to secure enough votes, and crypto exchange Coinbase Global ended trading down 10%, while stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group fell more than 11%, and Bitcoin briefly dropped 5.3% to fall below $75,000. The odds of the bill becoming law had already fallen sharply in recent months as prominent Democratic lawmakers came out against it one after another. Had it passed, market participants would have gained a clearer grasp of the legal framework, but much of that work will now be left to the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, whose rules are easily changed by future administrations. Robbie Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, said the bill's failure has no impact on current plans or strategy, while others point to greater uncertainty for investments not yet executed, such as acquisitions and new business ventures.

Bitcoin rebounded above $77,800 after earlier weakening to near $75,700, trading in a range of $76,636 to $79,600 amid a revival in crypto market activity and trading volume. The price remains capped by key resistance at $80,000. Investors are watching progress on the stalled CLARITY Act draft, as well as the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for tonight.

On September 15, CoinShares published its second-quarter 2026 Bitcoin mining report, expressing the view that even if the Bitcoin price recovers, the shift of listed miners toward AI infrastructure will not reverse. According to the report, in the second quarter the listed mining sector as a whole fell below its cash-based break-even point, with the average cash production cost per BTC at about 75,500 dollars, while BTC had fallen to 58,400 dollars by the end of the quarter. By the firm's estimates, AI brings these companies about 1.5 million dollars in annual profit per megawatt, while mining yields only about 500,000 dollars. Author Luke Nolan cited examples including Core Scientific paying 41.9 million dollars to cancel contracts for next-generation mining rigs. New data center construction itself has also become more difficult, with at least 225 construction halts or regulatory interventions seen across 30 U.S. states. Although BTC has recovered to around 77,000 dollars and many miners are once again above break-even, the firm believes it is unlikely that miners who have committed power and infrastructure to AI through long-term leases and the like will return to mining.

The Senate blocked a landmark digital asset market structure bill in a procedural vote Tuesday, sending crypto-related stocks sharply lower. The legislation failed to reach the 60 votes needed to advance. Coinbase declined more than 9%, while Circle Internet Group dropped over 9.6%; Strategy fell roughly 5%, and Bitmine Immersion Technologies lost more than 7%. The bill would have given the Commodity Futures Trading Commission primary authority to regulate the digital assets industry, and Democrats blocked the measure citing concerns over ethics provisions designed to address President Donald Trump's crypto business interests. Senate Republican leaders released an updated version of the Clarity Act late Sunday night that added measures to expand state attorneys general's ability to enforce ethics provisions and further limit crypto companies from offering rewards or interest to stablecoin users, including a circuit-breaker for the Treasury Department to prohibit such rewards, interest or yield. Democrats said the ethical guardrails for the president and other elected officials holding cryptocurrencies did not go far enough, particularly in light of Trump's $1.4 billion crypto windfall, and the defeat comes less than two months before the midterm elections in November.

Bitcoin fell as much as 4.9% on Tuesday from Monday's high of nearly $80K after the Clarity Act failed to advance out of committee, with the largest cryptocurrency by market cap sliding to $76.1K Tuesday afternoon, down 2.7% over the past 24 hours, and a low of the day of $75.7K against Monday's high of $79.6K. Ethereum, the second-largest digital token by market cap, dropped 4.5% to $2.40K at about 3:05 PM ET. The odds of the Clarity Act becoming law before Jan. 1, 2027, slid to 7.7% at about 3:45 PM ET from as high as 39% at 7:27 AM ET, after a procedural vote to advance the bill to the Senate floor for a full vote failed Tuesday afternoon, with major sticking points including ethics over legislators and the president profiting from stablecoins and other digital assets and whether platforms should be allowed to pay interest on stablecoin holdings. Vladimir Tikhomirov, founder of Theorem and co-founder of Algebra, said the development was a setback but "doesn't change the direction of the crypto market either, as prices are still too heavily dependent on rates, dollar liquidity, and macro conditions," adding that the RWA market remains in an uncertain position with no regulatory blueprint for how these assets can be traded, how liquidity is formed around them, and how investors can actually exit their positions. Crypto stocks slumping the most in Tuesday trading included Circle Internet at -10%, Coinbase Global at -9.5%, Gemini Space Station at -7.3%, and Bakkt at -6.9%, while crypto mining stocks also dipped, with Riot Platforms at -5.5%, CleanSpark at -4.6%, Core Scientific at -4.0%, Hut 8 at -4.2%, and IREN at -3.6%.

Bitcoin's rally stalled as the odds of the Clarity Act passing this year dropped back to 18% early Tuesday in Asia, after rising above 30% on Polymarket during US trading hours. Bitcoin, which accounts for around 60% of the market value of all cryptocurrencies, retreated from as high as $79,586 to below $78,000 and was last trading at $77,578.33. US Senator Mark Warner told reporters at the US Capitol that a group of Democratic negotiators would send a counteroffer to Republicans ahead of the pivotal procedural vote on the Clarity Act, the comprehensive crypto regulation bill that has been stuck in partisan wrangling for a year, Bloomberg News reported. The bill will need a number of Democrats to cross party lines to advance and move later to final passage because of the Senate's 60-vote rule for most legislation. Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, said prediction-market odds of a 2026 signing sat above 70% in May, collapsed to the low teens through August and rebounded toward 30% on Monday, adding that a counteroffer is consistent with a negotiation that is still live, not one that has broken down.

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $462.7 million in net outflows last week, ending a three-week run of strong inflows. According to SoSoValue data, the funds lost $46.7 million on Tuesday, $120.2 million on Wednesday and $282.7 million on Thursday, with outflows easing to $13.2 million on Friday, marking the first weekly reversal since mid-August. The shift followed roughly $3.8 billion of inflows over the prior three weeks that helped support Bitcoin's move above $80,000, and spot Bitcoin ETFs still held about $307.3 million in net inflows for September through Friday. Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, told Cryptoprowl the withdrawals come at a difficult time for markets, citing stickier inflation, a 10-year Treasury yield near 5%, shifting Federal Reserve expectations and higher oil prices tied to the Iran conflict and energy-route disruption risks. Ether ETFs attracted $196.9 million in net inflows over the same four-day period, led by strong Friday buying.

Coinbase Global shares rose 6% to $185.34 Monday morning after Compass Point analyst Ed Engel upgraded the exchange operator to Neutral from Sell ahead of a scheduled Senate floor vote on crypto market-structure legislation. Engel also lifted his price target on Coinbase to $177, citing a Bitcoin rebound and the upcoming Senate vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May before stalling and is expected to be the last vote on the legislation before the November midterm elections. Strategy stock rose 3% to $135.20 on sympathy with the Bitcoin it holds on its balance sheet, while MARA slid 2% to $11.69 after JPMorgan cut the miner to Underweight from Neutral and lowered its price target to $11, citing MARA's capital-light joint venture with Starwood Digital Ventures that leaves MARA with half the value the venture creates. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF rose 1% while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust fell 0.8%, a split showing crypto-linked equities are trading on regulatory and analyst signals rather than the AI-led selling weighing on the broader index. Engel expects the Senate vote to fail, and President Donald Trump has publicly called on the Senate to pass the bill.

Three central banks are set to tighten monetary policy simultaneously for the first time since 2006, a combination that historically hits the most leveraged risk assets first. The European Central Bank has already raised its deposit rate to 2.50%, the Federal Reserve decides Wednesday with futures pricing near 90% odds of a hike, and the Bank of Japan decides Friday. In the 2006 template, the squeeze landed on May 10, and over the following month the S&P 500 fell 7.7%, Europe's Euro Stoxx fell 13.3%, Japan's TOPIX fell 16.5%, and emerging markets fell more than 20%, though the S&P 500 still finished 2006 up 15.79%. Bitcoin did not exist in 2006, but in August 2024 a Bank of Japan rate hike sent Japan's TOPIX down 12% in a single day and Bitcoin fell as much as 20%, placing Bitcoin on the emerging-market rung of that ladder, with Japanese stocks already down 8.4% in a month. This month the yen climbed 3.7% in three sessions while Bitcoin held above $79,000, breaking the 2024 pattern, after already falling 33% over the past year to trade at $77,871 as of this writing. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $3.52 billion in August, more than reversing the $5.30 billion that left over the previous seven months, and because that money is not borrowed in yen, a funding squeeze does not automatically force it out.

Bitcoin fell 3.8% last week, and US spot bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $462.7 million over four trading days. This week brings a string of policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, which could create a tough macro environment for risk assets. The market broadly expects a 0.25-point rate hike at the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 16, with CME's FedWatch putting the probability of a hike at 87.5%. The Bank of England is expected to hold its policy rate at 3.75% on September 17, while the Monetary Policy Committee is seen splitting 6 to 3 in the vote. Expectations are growing that the Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate by 0.25 point to 1.25% on Friday, which if realized would be the highest level since April 1995. The market capitalization of stablecoins rose about 0.6% from $307 billion at the start of the month to $309 billion as of September 13, while bitcoin's market share has fallen about 2% since September 4. BTC was trading at around $77,200 as of September 13, and $76,000, the midpoint of the bullish candle formed with volume on August 21, will be a key support line this week.

Bitcoin traded near $77,250 on Monday, three days before the Federal Reserve's September 16 rate decision, with futures markets pricing an 86.5% chance of a quarter-point hike. Friday's inflation report showed consumer prices rose 0.4% in August after a 0.1% gain in July, lifting the annual rate to 3.4%, and the committee already looked split after holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in July, when three officials dissented in favor of an increase. Fed hike odds sat at 50/50 on September 4, when BeInCrypto reported BTC climbing toward $82,000, and have risen steadily since, leaving the token several thousand dollars lower and roughly flat over the past 24 hours. Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long argues the bigger shift sits with the Treasury Department rather than the Fed, pointing to the August 19 decision to double longer-dated buybacks to $4 billion per operation after ten-year and thirty-year yields hit twenty-year highs, a program now running between September 9 and November 4 and fundable from a Treasury General Account holding close to $1 trillion. Long also noted that Treasury and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency have published proposed rules for the GENIUS Act, the 2025 stablecoin law taking effect on January 18, 2027, while the Fed has not, saying there is no question Treasury is taking a lot more power from the Fed.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs faced four consecutive days of outflows, with a total of more than 462 million dollars withdrawn in the week of September 8 to 11. Overall outflows from Bitcoin ETFs stood at 449 million dollars. Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin rebounded to near 80,000 dollars after CPI inflation figures were released, with markets watching the US central bank's stance on interest rates. At the same time, Thailand's SEC is pushing ahead with token funds and Travel Rule measures. There is also news to follow on blockchain developments, artificial intelligence, and crypto regulation around the world.