Bitcoin Slips to $77,250 as Fed Hike Odds Hit 86.5% Before Wednesday Decision

Digital FinanceMacroDigital Finance
โดย BeInCrypto·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Bitcoin traded near $77,250 on Monday, three days before the Federal Reserve's September 16 rate decision, with futures markets pricing an 86.5% chance of a quarter-point hike. Friday's inflation report showed consumer prices rose 0.4% in August after a 0.1% gain in July, lifting the annual rate to 3.4%, and the committee already looked split after holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in July, when three officials dissented in favor of an increase. Fed hike odds sat at 50/50 on September 4, when BeInCrypto reported BTC climbing toward $82,000, and have risen steadily since, leaving the token several thousand dollars lower and roughly flat over the past 24 hours. Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long argues the bigger shift sits with the Treasury Department rather than the Fed, pointing to the August 19 decision to double longer-dated buybacks to $4 billion per operation after ten-year and thirty-year yields hit twenty-year highs, a program now running between September 9 and November 4 and fundable from a Treasury General Account holding close to $1 trillion. Long also noted that Treasury and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency have published proposed rules for the GENIUS Act, the 2025 stablecoin law taking effect on January 18, 2027, while the Fed has not, saying there is no question Treasury is taking a lot more power from the Fed.

Impact on stocks 2

Others · 2 stocks
United States Government Bond 10Y
US-10Y
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Hawkish Fed hike odds and elevated inflation push the 10Y yield up (bond price down); Treasury's doubled buybacks are noted as a counterweight.

Theme Impact 4

Off-coverage companies 1

Custodia BankPrivate± Mixed
Regulationrelevance

CEO Caitlin Long is quoted on Treasury vs Fed power and GENIUS Act stablecoin rules, but no direct impact on Custodia Bank is stated.

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