BMW Group cuts 2026 outlook on China slump and Middle East pressures

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BMW Group has lowered its full-year 2026 guidance, citing a deteriorating Chinese car market and economic fallout from the Middle East conflict. The German automaker now expects its automotive segment EBIT margin to come in at 1 to 3 percent, down from prior guidance of 4 to 6 percent, while return on capital employed for the same segment has been revised to 1 to 5 percent from an earlier outlook of 6 to 10 percent. Group profit before tax is now projected to decline significantly year-on-year, a steeper deterioration than the moderate decrease previously anticipated, and automotive segment deliveries are forecast to record a slight decrease versus the prior year, having previously been guided at the prior year's level. The company said conditions in the Chinese passenger car market worsened in the second quarter, particularly for non-electric vehicles, intensifying competitive pressure across China and the broader Asia-Pacific region, while elevated energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict have added to cost pressures and weighed on consumer sentiment globally. In response, BMW Group said it would intensify and accelerate its ongoing cost reduction initiatives through further structural and efficiency measures, though these steps will carry a one-time negative impact on earnings in the second half of 2026, with financial benefits expected to materialise in subsequent years. Automotive free cashflow guidance was maintained at above 2.5 billion euros, and the company confirmed its dividend payout ratio of 30 to 40 percent of net income attributable to BMW shareholders and its ongoing share buyback programme remain unchanged.

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