Summary · why it matters
Two brokers assess that the Thailand Travel Thailand Plus scheme is likely to be pushed back from October 1, 2026 to around April 2027, because private-sector surveys, especially among hotel businesses, found that running the scheme during high season yields no added benefit since rooms are already full and tourists have already planned their trips in advance. The research team at DAOL Securities (Thailand) sees this as negative sentiment for the tourism group, because it prompts tourists to postpone their travel, but the delay to April 2027 should help the hotel group more since it begins to enter the low season. The scheme still keeps its budget framework of 4 billion baht, with 1 million entitlements, government support of 1,500 baht per night for accommodation, up to 5 nights, plus digital co-payment coupons on a 50-50 basis, split into 1,500 baht per day for main cities and 2,000 baht per day for secondary cities. The stocks receiving the most negative sentiment, in descending order of their domestic hotel exposure, are ERW, CENTEL, MINT and SHR. DAOL gives the tourism group an overweight rating versus the market, and likes CENTEL with a target price of 48.00 baht, from July to August 2026 RevPAR excluding Dubai rising 8% year on year and third-quarter 2026 on-the-book up 8% year on year, with Thailand up 13% year on year, the Maldives up 35% year on year, but Japan down 12% year on year and Dubai down 25% year on year. Meanwhile, fourth-quarter 2026 on-the-book RevPAR rises by double-digit growth year on year, from Thailand at 13% year on year, the Maldives at 40% year on year and Japan at 18% year on year. Fourth-quarter 2026 profit is expected to recover strongly, with the stock trading at an EV/EBITDA of only 13 times, equivalent to minus 0.50 standard deviations over the past 8 years. It also likes ERW with a target price of 4.20 baht, from third-quarter 2026 on-the-book RevPAR growing another roughly 5% year on year off a low base, while the fourth quarter of 2026 has events such as the World Bank and IMF meetings in October 2026 and Tomorrowland in December 2026, which have seen bookings continue to rise, with occupancy already as high as 80%. It currently trades at a PER of 20 times, against an average of about 25 times. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities sees the scheme's delay pushing back the positive catalyst for the hotel group, but it does not affect 2026 profit forecasts because the research team had not yet included it in estimates, and the stronger-than-expected recovery in RevPAR and on-the-book in the second half of 2026, at 25-30% year on year, offsets it. Moreover, the delay of the scheme to the low season of 2027 could create upside for 2027 profit, so it maintains a bullish stance on hotel stocks and picks AWC with a target price of 3.90 baht and ERW with a target price of 4.20 baht as top picks, as they benefit most from the recovery in the domestic hotel business.
Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited
The Erawan Group Public Company Limited
Minor International Public Company Limited
S Hotels and Resorts Public Company Limited
Bank of Ayudhya PCL