Bualuang flags 6 factors supporting fund flows into Thailand over next 3 months, recommends KCE, PTT, PTTGC

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โดย ทันหุ้น·TH·Read original
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Bualuang Securities says the current picture still supports continued foreign capital inflows into the Thai stock market over the next 3 months, driven by the accelerating global technology and manufacturing cycle, along with upward revisions to Thai market earnings. Historical data from 2016 to 2026 shows that when the 6 main factors are simultaneously above their averages, foreign capital inflows over the following 3 months were positive in 89% of cases, with a median inflow of about 34 billion baht. Currently all 6 factors are above their averages, and 4 of the 6 are more than +0.5SD. The main impetus comes from South Korean exports, which stand at +2.00SD after export figures for May to July 2026 grew 52.9%, 70.4% and 63.0% year on year respectively. Meanwhile, the US manufacturing index rose from 52.6 in January to 55.6 in July. The revision to SET earnings estimates over the past 3 months swung from -7.3% at the start of the year to +12.7% now, or +1.43SD, consistent with foreign investors' net buying of Thai stocks of about 58 billion baht year to date and 38 billion baht over the past 3 months. The base case estimates inflows of about 24.6 billion baht over the next 3 months, while the soft patch case still yields positive foreign inflows of about 10.3 billion baht. On strategy, it recommends accumulating KCE on expected third-quarter 2026 PCB delivery volumes rising quarter on quarter and price increases from 1 July, which support average selling prices by about 9-10% and give PCB revenue a chance to rise 17-19% quarter on quarter. It also picks PTT and PTTGC to benefit from commodity prices that remain at high levels.

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