Bualuang Selects 8 Strong Dividend Stocks to Weather Market Volatility

Analyst
โดย thunhoon.com·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Bualuang Securities stated that amid the still volatile market, its research team believes dividend yield will regain its role as a downside buffer. However, looking at yield based solely on base-case estimates may not be sufficient, so it conducted a Dividend Stress Test for 2027, setting worst-case scenarios according to each industry's risks, such as banks assuming a 5-10 basis point increase in credit costs and payout ratios returning to normal levels, retail with SSSG of -2% YoY, shopping malls with tenant sales of -2% YoY, hospitals with no revenue growth, ICT facing price competition and slowing cost savings, energy using Brent at $60 per barrel compared to the base case of $70 per barrel, and WHA/WHAUP assuming the transfer of 900 rai of data center land is postponed from 2027. The stress test found that even with DPS declining by an average of 7% from the base case, there are still 8 companies whose 2027 dividend yield is higher than the +1 standard deviation level of the 10-year historical average, namely CPALL, BDMS, CPN, TLI, WHA, COM7, OSP, and TU. This reflects that yields still have a buffer even if earnings come in below expectations. Among these, CPALL offers a yield of 4.1% in the worst case compared to the +1SD of 2.6%, BDMS 3.9% versus 2.7%, CPN 3.9% versus 2.9%, TLI 5.4% versus 4.8%, WHA 4.9% versus 4.5%, and COM7 4.0% versus 3.7%. Meanwhile, OSP and TU still offer high yields of 5.3% and 5.6%, respectively, compared to the +1SD level of 5.2% for both. In a situation where earnings and the market remain uncertain, the strategy should focus on quality yield rather than merely selecting stocks with high dividend yields. All 8 stocks above maintain yields above their historical ranges even after passing through negative assumptions.

Impact on stocks 8

Consumer Staples▲ · 2 stocks
Thai Union Group PCL
TU
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

TU is one of the 8 stocks with high dividend yield in stress test, showing buffer.

Aging Population▲ · 1 stocks
Consumer Discretionary▲ · 1 stocks
Com7 PCL
COM7
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

COM7's dividend yield remains above historical +1SD under stress test

Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 1 stocks
Real Estate▲ · 1 stocks
Financials▲ · 1 stocks
Thai Life Insurance PCL
TLI
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

TLI is one of the 8 stocks with dividend yield above +1SD in stress test, indicating resilience.

Artificial Intelligence▲ · 1 stocks
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