Bundesbank expects inflation to stay elevated on energy costs and healthcare reform

Global crude oil prices fell for a fourth consecutive trading day, with West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery dropping $5.25, or 5.23%, to $95.05 a barrel, slipping below the $96 a barrel level, while Brent crude for November delivery fell $4.60, or 4.43%, to $99.27 a barrel, slipping below the $100 a barrel level. The decline followed reports that President Donald Trump is ready to negotiate with Iran and that the United States will not strike the Houthis, an Iranian ally, even though Saudi Arabia has urged the United States to act. The New York Times reported that President Trump said on September 20 that he was open to meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week, and stated that options for dealing with Iran include destroying Iran entirely, letting Iran decline economically, or making a deal with Iran. Meanwhile, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, head of Iran's negotiating team, said Iran has submitted its conditions to the United States through intermediary countries to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Meteorologists have upgraded El Nino to "Super" status, a shift expected to bring milder-than-average winter temperatures across the northern United States and Canada and suppress the heating demand that drives natural gas consumption. Vaisala Xweather recently projected that winter 2026-27 would rank as the sixth-hottest since 1950 in the Lower 48 states, with December-February gas-weighted heating degree days 5% below the 10-year average, as cited in a Natural Gas Intelligence Report. With underground storage inventories already well above five-year historical averages, continued inflows and limited withdrawals could pressure natural gas futures, reduce producers' gas sales and compress operating margins. Among the funds highlighted for investors already exposed to the sector, the United States 12 Month Natural Gas ETF UNL holds $16.15 billion in net assets and charges 165 basis points in fees, while the Amplify Samsung U.S. Natural Gas Infrastructure ETF USNG holds $10.7 million, provides exposure to 25 U.S.-listed natural gas equities and charges 59 basis points, with Solaris Energy Infrastructure SEI at an 8.44% weight. The Corgi Natural Gas Power & Turbines ETF GASZ holds $9.2 million, spans the natural gas power generation and turbine ecosystem and charges 35 basis points, with Caterpillar Inc. CAT at a 13.86% weight.

Shell shares fell about 0.9% to $95.005 Friday morning as six European governments pressed the European Commission to examine ways to tax unusually strong energy-company profits, reviving a windfall-tax fight while crude pushed above $100 a barrel. The push remains a political discussion rather than a finished tax regime: the Commission has no bloc-wide proposal on the table, individual countries remain free to introduce their own measures, and there is no common tax rate, agreed profit threshold or implementation timetable yet. Shell's global footprint can soften the impact of any single-country levy, but a collection of national taxes could still chip away at the cash-flow boost coming from higher commodity prices. The stock now trades 14.51% above its GF Value estimate of $82.97, leaving less valuation room for an unfavorable tax surprise.