Chevron CEO Wirth Warns Oil Prices Likely to Rise as Supply Buffers Run Out

TD Cowen upgraded Targa Resources from Hold to Buy on September 18 and raised its price target from $275 to $350, implying nearly 20% upside and exceeding the stock's record high of just under $308. The firm cited expected Permian Basin wet gas growth and peer-leading EBITDA growth, and expects Targa's free cash flow yield to rise from 6% in 2026 to more than 10% in 2028, versus an estimated 8.5% FCF yield for peers in 2030. A key driver is the 20-year fee-based agreement Targa signed with ExxonMobil last month, which includes three planned natural gas processing plants in the Permian Delaware with aggregate capacity of roughly 825 MMcf/day. Targa reported record second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.60 billion, up 38% from a year earlier, and now expects full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA at the top end of its previous $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion guidance range. The company raised its FY2026 growth capital estimate to $5 billion for the new Delaware plants, associated field capital and the Bull Run II pipeline, while execution risk remains across its projects under construction.

GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik said on September 16 that the company's backlog could reach the $200 billion mark "very early" in 2027, sooner than Wall Street had expected. The company's backlog of $176 billion at the end of Q2 grew $13 billion from the previous quarter and was up 37% YoY, providing visibility into earnings well into the 2030s. Revenue grew 22% YoY to $11.1 billion in the second quarter, while free cash flow reached $5.1 billion, already exceeding its full-year 2025 level, and GEV raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $45.5 billion-$46.5 billion from a previous range of $44.5 billion-$45.5 billion. Data center-related orders exceeded $5 billion in the first half of this year, more than double 2025's total, though the Wind business remains a drag with orders down about 40% from a year earlier and segment EBITDA losses widening by over 66% YoY to $275 million. The stock came under pressure on September 14 when GLJ Research issued a 'Sell' rating and a Street-low price target of $470.

The U.S. national average price of gasoline stood at about $4.47 a gallon on Sept. 18, up 4% in a week and roughly 57% year to date, as the war between the United States and Israel and Iran disrupted global energy markets more violently than anyone expected. Diesel hit a record $6.4776 on Sept. 18, up 6.5% in a week and 79% this year, breaking its old 2022 peak of $5.815 on Sept. 4 and setting 13 new highs since. Jeff Currie, former head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, said retail gas prices may reach $5 a gallon just in time for the midterm elections on Nov. 3, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts retail gasoline will average $3.95 a gallon in the fourth quarter. U.S. Energy Administration data show gasoline demand in July and August of 2026 was off about 1% from a year ago, and the seasonal price decline from September to year-end has averaged about 10% in recent years, a break holiday travelers should not expect this time. The war, which erupted on Feb. 27 after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convinced President Trump and members of his administration that Iran's government was fragile, has cut crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the route for about 20% of the world's crude oil before the conflict, while Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries have forced Russia to cut diesel exports to western Europe and elsewhere.