US Gasoline Prices Surge 57% in 2026 as War Disrupts Energy Markets

Chevron chairman and chief executive Mike Wirth said publicly that he does not see how oil prices come down quickly, warning that the mechanisms that absorbed the earlier oil supply shock have largely been used up and that risks remain to the upside over the next few months. Speaking at a University of Texas at Austin energy conference on September 11, Wirth said strategic reserve releases, commercial inventory drawdowns and eased restrictions on sanctioned crude stored at sea had all played out, and the loss of flexibility became more acute after attacks knocked out a major Saudi crude pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, putting an estimated 2.5 million barrels of oil per day in limbo. The average U.S. diesel price crossed $6 per gallon for the first time on September 10 and had hit a record $6.23 a gallon by the time Wirth spoke, while gasoline was back up to about $4.32 a gallon after slipping below $4 during the summer. Brent crude for November 2026 delivery traded near $105 a barrel around the conference and West Texas Intermediate was just above $100, up about 50% from roughly $70 before the Iran war started in late February, with China's return to the international market adding demand pressure. President Trump said on September 9 that oil prices would come down right after the election, tying the timeline to the November midterms, while Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has called the latest supply disruption temporary and pointed to expanded Venezuelan output and U.S. refining capacity as near-term offsets.

TD Cowen upgraded Targa Resources from Hold to Buy on September 18 and raised its price target from $275 to $350, implying nearly 20% upside and exceeding the stock's record high of just under $308. The firm cited expected Permian Basin wet gas growth and peer-leading EBITDA growth, and expects Targa's free cash flow yield to rise from 6% in 2026 to more than 10% in 2028, versus an estimated 8.5% FCF yield for peers in 2030. A key driver is the 20-year fee-based agreement Targa signed with ExxonMobil last month, which includes three planned natural gas processing plants in the Permian Delaware with aggregate capacity of roughly 825 MMcf/day. Targa reported record second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.60 billion, up 38% from a year earlier, and now expects full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA at the top end of its previous $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion guidance range. The company raised its FY2026 growth capital estimate to $5 billion for the new Delaware plants, associated field capital and the Bull Run II pipeline, while execution risk remains across its projects under construction.

GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik said on September 16 that the company's backlog could reach the $200 billion mark "very early" in 2027, sooner than Wall Street had expected. The company's backlog of $176 billion at the end of Q2 grew $13 billion from the previous quarter and was up 37% YoY, providing visibility into earnings well into the 2030s. Revenue grew 22% YoY to $11.1 billion in the second quarter, while free cash flow reached $5.1 billion, already exceeding its full-year 2025 level, and GEV raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $45.5 billion-$46.5 billion from a previous range of $44.5 billion-$45.5 billion. Data center-related orders exceeded $5 billion in the first half of this year, more than double 2025's total, though the Wind business remains a drag with orders down about 40% from a year earlier and segment EBITDA losses widening by over 66% YoY to $275 million. The stock came under pressure on September 14 when GLJ Research issued a 'Sell' rating and a Street-low price target of $470.