China EV penetration could reach 80% by 2030, Sinopec researcher says

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Researchers at China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, known as Sinopec, expect China's electric vehicle penetration rate to keep rising and reach 75 to 80 percent by 2030. Wang Fuli, deputy director of the Sinopec Economics and Development Research Institute, told an APEC conference in Singapore that EVs are expected to displace 56 million tons of oil demand in China this year, equivalent to about 1.2 million barrels per day, or nearly 15 percent of the country's total refined petroleum product demand. EV penetration in China was just 5 percent in 2020, but rose to 53 percent last year and reached 65 percent in July. The figures include both battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. According to Wang, nearly all of China's public transport vehicles are now electrified. She cited past government subsidies and the country's extensive charging infrastructure as factors behind the rapid adoption.

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Sinopec's own researchers say EVs will displace ~1.2 million bpd of China's oil demand this year and penetration could hit 75-80% by 2030, eroding the company's core refined petroleum product demand.

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