Citi initiates Rivian at Neutral, doubts R2 production targets

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โดย Seeking Alpha·US·Read original
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Citi Research analysts Michael Ward and Vikram Bagri initiated coverage of Rivian with a Neutral rating, citing risks around the R2 launch and high-volume production. The R1S, R1T, EDV, and R2 are currently built at Rivian's Normal, Illinois facility, which Citi estimates has annual production capacity of 120K but has been underutilized, with 2025 output at just 42,417 units, or about 35% of that capacity. The analysts question market estimates, noting the FactSet consensus expects Rivian to deliver 82K R2s in 2027, implying production of over 1,500 units a week, and 183K R2 sales in 2028, both of which Ward and Bagri believe are not attainable. They said production is expected to accelerate in 2029, but meeting the 300,000-capacity target would require distribution locations to more than double from current levels and a significant market expansion, and they argued the consensus 2028 R2 sales estimate assumes a faster ramp at the Georgia plant, expected to start production in late 2028. The analysts said monthly sales and production data over the next 6-9 months will likely be the most important metrics to monitor, while Rivian shares are down about 2% Tuesday, the stock's third straight day in the red.

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Electrification & Mobility · 1 stocks
Rivian Automotive Inc
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Citi initiated Rivian at Neutral, questioning whether consensus R2 production and sales targets are attainable.

Cloud & Digital Infrastructure · 1 stocks

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