Citi stays Neutral on BMW, sees China weakness capping shares

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Citi maintained a Neutral rating on BMW, arguing that persistent weakness in China and a lack of clear earnings catalysts are likely to keep the shares range-bound despite an increasingly attractive valuation. The brokerage expects BMW's automotive EBIT margin guidance of 1% to 3% for fiscal 2026 to remain well below long-term targets, with vehicle sales in China forecast to drop from a peak of about 800,000 units to roughly 500,000 this year and further to between 300,000 and 350,000 units by 2030. Earnings from China, which peaked at around €5 billion in 2023, are expected to fall below €1 billion this year amid rising competition from domestic electric vehicle makers, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing pricing pressure. Attention is turning to BMW's Capital Markets Day in September, when new Chief Executive Milan Nedeljkovic is expected to outline the long-term strategy, with investors likely to focus on cost reductions and restructuring measures. Citi estimates BMW may need as much as €3 billion in cost savings and portfolio improvements to lift automotive EBIT margins toward a 6% to 8% range over the medium term, and argues that legacy automakers should focus on cash generation and shareholder returns rather than growth.

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Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft
BMW
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Citi expects persistent China weakness with vehicle sales forecast to drop from 800k to 500k this year and further to 300-350k by 2030, and China earnings to fall below €1 billion from €5 billion peak.

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