Crude Holds Near $100 as Hormuz Talks Set for Monday in Oman

CommodityMacroGeopolitics Impact 5
โดย Oil Market Daily·IROM·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Crude settled around $100 a barrel on Friday after Iranian state media reported Tehran would meet Gulf states in Oman to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, with Gulf Cooperation Council diplomats expected to meet their Iranian counterpart on Monday over a possible temporary arrangement for managing shipping through the strait. The meeting is the single most consequential item on this week's calendar, which also includes the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, the American Petroleum Institute and EIA weekly inventory reports, a Federal Reserve interest rate decision with updated FOMC economic projections, and August industrial production. The International Energy Agency now forecasts global oil demand will fall by 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026, roughly 940,000 barrels a day deeper than a month earlier, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its second-half 2026 Brent forecast by $8 to around $90 a barrel and expects prices to average $77 by the second quarter of 2027 as shut-in Gulf production restarts; OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth forecast for a fifth consecutive time. The IEA reported global oil production fell 1.6 million barrels a day month over month to 100.1 million in August, with more than 10 million barrels a day of Gulf output still shut in, total supply set to fall 5.7 million barrels a day this year, and global observed inventories down 507 million barrels since the war began. Refined products are now the tightest part of the market, with global refinery throughput at a summer peak of 81.4 million barrels a day in August, up 960,000 month over month but 4.2 million barrels a day below a year earlier, and Atlantic Basin refining margins at record levels. Among companies cited, Valero Energy Corporation reported second-quarter 2026 net income of $3.7 billion and returned $2.6 billion to shareholders, Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported a refining and marketing margin that rose from $17.58 to $36.33 per barrel year over year and returned more than $2.8 billion to shareholders, Phillips 66 said refining fundamentals were very tight and getting tighter, Frontline plc reported second-quarter VLCC time charter equivalent earnings of $152,700 per day and a quarterly dividend of $2.61 per share, and Equinor ASA's Alex Grant said there are quite a few bottlenecks all at the same time.

Impact on stocks 6

Synthetic Biology (non-pharma)▲ · 3 stocks
Valero Energy Corporation
VLO
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

Valero is cited in the article and record Atlantic Basin refining margins amid tight refined-product supply are positive for its refining business.

Marathon Petroleum Corp
MPC
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

Record Atlantic Basin refining margins and tight refined-product market with 4.2 mb/d lower year-over-year throughput support strong refining margins for Marathon Petroleum.

Phillips 66
PSX
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

Refined products are the tightest part of the market with record Atlantic Basin refining margins, benefiting Phillips 66's refining operations.

Energy▲ · 2 stocks
Artificial Intelligence▲ · 1 stocks

Theme Impact 1

Related news

▲impact 5

US Hyperscalers to Spend Up to $725 Billion on AI Infrastructure in 2026

The top five US hyperscalers are projecting a combined capital expenditure of $660 billion to $725 billion for 2026, nearly double their 2025 outlays, as the AI build-out shifts from software to physical infrastructure. Microsoft is guiding for roughly $175 billion in adjusted capital expenditure for both FY2026 and FY2027, with two-thirds of quarterly spend going to short-lived assets like CPUs and GPUs and the rest to long-lived data center infrastructure, and it added 1 gigawatt of capacity in Q3 FY2026, doubling its global footprint in two years. Amazon AWS has raised its 2026 capex guidance to approximately $220 billion, with CEO Andy Jassy saying AI capacity is expected to remain constrained through 2027 and contracted demand extending into 2028. Meta saw profit drop 14% in Q2 2026 despite a 28% revenue increase as its build-out, including a 1 gigawatt data center in Ohio and a Louisiana facility that could scale to 5 gigawatts, compressed margins, while Alphabet raised its 2026 capex guidance to as much as $205 billion and its Google Cloud backlog more than doubled year-over-year to $240 billion. The Stargate joint venture involving Oracle, OpenAI and others targets up to $500 billion in infrastructure investment by 2029, and Oracle's FY2026 capex reached $55.7 billion, more than doubling from the previous year.
AMZN ▲GOOG ▲META ▼MSFT ▲ORCL ▲
Artificial Intelligence ▲Cloud & Digital Infrastructure ▲Energy Transition & Power Demand ▲
Yahoo Finance·1hRead more →
▼impact 4

Saudi Arabia issues two air-raid warnings over Riyadh after new Houthi attacks

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, faced two air-raid warnings in the early hours of today, September 19, marking the first time the country's capital has seen such alerts since the period when war between the United States and Iran intensified in March and April. Saudi Arabia's early-warning system issued an emergency alert in Riyadh at 4:00 a.m. and again at 6:00 a.m., without disclosing further details. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's civil defense authority said the danger had ended shortly after both alerts. Other areas across the country received similar warnings throughout the past night, including Jeddah and Yanbu on the Red Sea, as well as Farasan Island in the Red Sea. The warnings came amid a new wave of attacks Saudi Arabia has faced in September, with the Iran-backed Houthis based in Yemen striking cities in western Saudi Arabia, including energy infrastructure, over the past week. The Saudi government said a drone attack from Iraq, home to several Iran-backed armed groups, forced the East-West oil pipeline to halt operations. In addition, attacks on the pipeline and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sharply reduced Saudi Arabia's oil exports and created further problems for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's leader. The renewed conflict also risks affecting Saudi Arabia's efforts to attract investment and tourists, part of its push to diversify the country's economic structure. In October, Riyadh is scheduled to host Saudi Arabia's flagship investment conference, the Future Investment Initiative, with the 2026 annual gathering set to welcome several senior Wall Street executives, including JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon and David Solomon of Goldman Sachs Group.
BRENT ▲WTI ▲
Energy Transition & Power Demand ▼Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation ▲
InfoQuest·2hRead more →
2impact 4

NextEra Reaffirms 2026 EPS Guidance as It Advances $67 Billion Dominion Deal

NextEra Energy has reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.92 to $4.02 and said it is targeting the high end of that range, as it advances a $67 billion all-stock acquisition of Dominion Energy that is expected to close in the second half of 2027. NextEra expects adjusted EPS to grow at a compound annual rate of at least 8% through 2032 and is targeting the same growth rate through 2035 off the 2025 base, while the combined company is expected to deliver 9%+ adjusted EPS growth through 2032 and is targeting the same rate through 2035 off NextEra's 2025 base. The company expects its dividend per share to grow at a roughly 10% annual rate through 2026 off the 2024 base, then 6% a year through 2028 from the 2026 base. To improve the deal's approval chances, the companies submitted an expanded benefits package to Virginia regulators that would double residential bill credits to four years, shield retail customers from grid costs tied to Northern Virginia's AI data centers, and add $100 million to Dominion's low-income bill assistance program through 2038 plus another $100 million for workforce development. If completed, the merger would create the largest US electricity producer, operating the largest natural gas-fired generation fleet in the US and the second-largest nuclear fleet.
NEE ▲D ▲
Energy Transition & Power Demand ▲
Insider Monkey·3hRead more →
© 2026 MarketDXNews