Crude oil prices fall after IEA cuts 2026 global demand forecast

CommodityGeopolitics Impact 4
โดย Business Today·GLOBAL·Read original
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West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude prices declined after the International Energy Agency, or IEA, lowered its forecast for global oil demand in 2026, now expecting a contraction of 1.6 million barrels per day, compared with a contraction of around 1 million barrels per day in the previous monthly report. A key factor is that crude oil and petroleum product prices remain elevated as a result of prolonged tensions and conflict in the Middle East, especially uncertainty over oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused oil consumption in several regions to slow more than previously estimated. West Texas Intermediate crude traded on August 13, 2026 at 81.25 US dollars per barrel, down 2.02 US dollars per barrel, while Brent crude stood at 87.07 US dollars per barrel, down 1.91 US dollars per barrel. At the same time, the shipping situation through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain after senior Iranian officials confirmed that the strait is still under Iran's control and that all vessels must obtain permission from Iran before transiting the route. Iran also stressed that it will not fully open the Strait of Hormuz until the United States complies with the interim agreement signed in June 2026, saying that opening the shipping lane is not something the United States can do unilaterally. The United States, meanwhile, claims it can fully control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz following a naval blockade of Iranian ports, keeping markets closely focused on supply and energy transport risks in the region. In addition, conflict in the Middle East remains a risk factor after the Houthi group in Yemen, which is backed by Iran, claimed it used two drones to attack a Saudi Aramco oil refinery in the city of Jazan in southwestern Saudi Arabia last Thursday. The Houthis said the attack was in response to violations of Yemen's airspace and sovereignty. Saudi Arabia, however, has not commented on the incident. The overall oil market therefore still faces pressure from two sides: on one side, slowing global oil demand trends, and on the other, supply risks from uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz and tensions in the Middle East.

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