Crude Prices Higher as Iran Continues to Disrupt Vessel Traffic in Strait of Hormuz

GeopoliticsCommodity Impact 4
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September WTI crude oil closed up 1.15 dollars, or 1.42 percent, on Friday, while September RBOB gasoline closed up 0.0561, or 1.79 percent. Crude oil saw support after reports that Iran on Thursday night attacked two Abu Dhabi oil vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting Iran intends to continue threatening vessel traffic to impose long-term control over the Strait. However, oil prices were still down from Tuesday's two-week high as the Trump administration pivots to economic pressure rather than fresh US military attacks, with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying the administration will soon announce unprecedented economic measures against Iran. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains slow, with Energy Aspects reporting only an average of five vessels transiting, down from 14 ships a day seen after the US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding in June. The International Energy Agency said in its monthly report that the global oil supply deficit will worsen, with global oil inventories falling in the third quarter at twice the previously estimated rate due to ongoing disruptions from the US-Iran war. Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, attacking Russian refineries, oil tankers, and major pipeline infrastructure at least 30 times in July, the second-highest monthly number of attacks since the war began in 2022. As a bearish factor, OPEC delegates on August 2 approved their final increase of 188,000 barrels per day in crude production for September, restoring all of the 1.65 million barrels per day supply cutback made in 2023. Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories rose by 17.4 million barrels, the largest increase in more than three years, mainly due to a sharp drop in US crude oil exports, while gasoline inventories fell by 968,000 barrels. Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended August 14 rose by one to a 1.25-year high of 455 rigs.

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