Dao Securities says tourism has bottomed out, recommends ERW, CENTEL, MINT, SHR

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Dao Securities assesses that tourist numbers have already hit their lowest point in 2Q26E and will recover prominently in 4Q26E, driven by China's National Day in October and several events in December 2026. Foreign tourist arrivals in the latest week of September 6-12 stood at 439,069, down 7% week-on-week and 22% year-on-year, or an average of 62,724 per day. The markets posting the biggest declines were Malaysia at 53,638 (-28% WoW/-63% YoY), China at 65,380 (-10% WoW/-2% YoY), and Japan at 19,628 (-5% WoW), while Russia at 18,154 (+4% WoW/+7% YoY) and India at 39,857 (+2% WoW/-26% YoY) still rose. Dao Securities estimates total tourist arrivals for 2026E at 32 million, down 3% YoY from 33 million in 2025, and Chinese tourists for 2026E at 4.8 million, up 7% YoY from 4.5 million in 2025. Cumulative arrivals from January 1 to September 12, 2026 stood at 21.72 million, down 3.38% YoY. Dao Securities assigns an "overweight" investment rating to the tourism sector. It favours CENTEL (Buy/target 48.00 baht) on RevPAR for July-August 2026 excluding Dubai rising 8% YoY and 4Q26E on-the-book growth in double digits YoY, and favours ERW (Buy/target 4.20 baht) on 3Q26E on-the-book RevPAR growth of around 5% YoY with occupancy already as high as 80%. The stocks that benefit, ranked by proportion of domestic hotels from highest to lowest, are ERW, CENTEL, MINT, SHR.

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