Summary · why it matters
DAOL Securities (Thailand), or DAOL, is overweight the tourism sector, taking a positive view of the fourth-quarter high season on expectations that tourist numbers will rise significantly. The main driver comes from airlines gradually opening new routes and adding flights between October and December 2026 and continuing through April 2027, mostly direct flights from the United States and Europe to Bangkok, Krabi and Phuket. Between October and December, about 10 airlines are preparing to launch new routes to Thailand, including LOT Polish Airlines, Virgin Atlantic, Belavia, Lufthansa, SAS Scandinavian Airlines and Vietjet. This is in line with data from the Tourism Authority of Thailand, which plans to stimulate the market in the final four months of the year with major events and festivals to push total Thai tourism revenue in 2026 to 2.7 trillion baht and lift foreign arrivals to the target of 33 million. The research team estimates that the stocks benefiting most, ranked by the share of domestic hotels from high to low, are ERW, CENTEL, MINT and SHR. For 2026, total foreign arrivals are forecast at 32 million, down 3% from a year earlier, while Chinese tourists are expected at 4.8 million, up 7% from a year earlier. On investment strategy, DAOL recommends buying CENTEL with a target price of 48.00 baht, supported by revenue per available room, or RevPAR, rising 8% year on year in July and August, while third-quarter advance bookings rose 8% year on year and fourth-quarter advance bookings grew at a double-digit pace year on year, leading it to expect a standout recovery in fourth-quarter earnings. The stock currently trades at an EV/EBITDA of just 13 times. It also recommends buying ERW with a target price of 4.20 baht, benefiting from third-quarter advance bookings with RevPAR expected to grow about 5% year on year from a low base, while the fourth quarter brings global events such as the World Bank and IMF meetings in October and the Tomorrowland music festival in December, driving a steady stream of bookings that has already pushed occupancy as high as 80%. The stock currently trades at a PER of 20 times, below its average of about 25 times.
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