Goldman Sachs Flips Fed Call Twice in Four Days, Now Sees October Rate Hike

MacroDigital FinanceDigital Finance Impact 4
โดย 24/7 Wall St.·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Goldman Sachs reversed its Federal Reserve rate forecast twice in four days, telling clients on the morning of September 15, 2026 that it expected a hike the next day but not another one as its baseline, then shifting within hours of the September 16 decision to call for another 25-basis-point increase in October. The second change followed the Fed's updated rate projections, higher inflation forecasts, and Chair Kevin Warsh's comments on financial conditions. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to raise its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since 2023, and the dot plot showed 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more hike this year while four projected two additional increases. The Fed also raised its 2026 headline Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation forecast to 3.7% and lifted its core inflation forecast. Bitcoin is trading near $76,300, up roughly 18% over the past month but about 34% below its level a year ago, while XRP is near $1.29 after gaining roughly 28% over the past month and remains about 56% lower year over year. An October hike would reach markets with less time to adjust than after September's fully priced move, and the 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% this week for the first time since 2007.

Impact on stocks 3

Financials · 1 stocks
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
GS
± MixedMonetaryrelevance

Goldman Sachs is the subject, but the article only reports its flip-flopping Fed rate forecast, not a clear positive or negative for the firm.

Others · 2 stocks
Effective Federal Funds Rate
EFFR
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

The FOMC raised the target range by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% and the dot plot shows most officials expect at least one more hike this year.

Theme Impact 4

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