Finansia Syrus Securities eyes raising CBG profit forecasts after strong Loveza growth

Analyst
โดย Thunhoon·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Finansia Syrus Securities is positive on CBG, expecting third-quarter 2026 profit to grow both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with a chance of returning to year-on-year growth for the first time in five quarters, driven by better domestic energy drink revenue and higher contract manufacturing revenue from Loveza, rising to 13 million cans from 5 million cans in the first quarter of 2026. Revenue from this segment is expected to grow 10 percent quarter-on-quarter and 6 percent year-on-year, while revenue from alcoholic beverage distribution is expected to grow 20 to 25 percent year-on-year. Overseas revenue is expected to decline quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal factors, but has a tendency to return to year-on-year growth for the first time in eight quarters after the Cambodian market passed its lowest point, resulting in total revenue still tending to grow both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. Fourth-quarter 2026 profit has a chance to reach the year's high, supported by domestic revenue rising seasonally, while Loveza revenue is expected to increase to 20 to 25 million cans and Myanmar revenue has a recovery trend, as the company can import raw materials and finished goods normally and recently received a large import license covering through the end of the year. The company targets minimum Loveza sales in 2027 of about 100 million cans, up from around 43 million cans in 2026, with that figure based only on current distribution channels, so there is still upside if it can expand additional channels. The company is in talks with other channels such as Makro, Lotus's and 7-Eleven. Finansia Syrus Securities is in the process of raising its profit estimates and target price for CBG due to the stronger earnings trend, especially the acceleration of the Loveza business and the recovery trend in overseas markets in the second half of 2026.

Impact on stocks 4

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CBG
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Loveza contract manufacturing volume rising from 5M to 13M cans and expected to reach 20-25M in Q4, with 2027 target of 100M cans, driving profit growth.

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