Summary · why it matters
Several securities firms have turned positive on progress at Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, on its CFP clean energy project, as construction proceeds on schedule. The project will raise refining capacity, allow a wider range of crude oil grades to be processed, and shift the product slate toward higher-value products, key factors for lifting refining margins and long-term profitability. Trinity Securities said that after visiting the CFP project, it views the project as a major turning point for TOP's refinery structure, raising refining capacity from 375,000 barrels per day to 400,000 barrels per day, increasing the share of upgrading unit capacity from 28% to 50%, and lifting the refinery complexity index from 9.8 to 12. The share of high-value products, especially diesel and jet fuel, will rise from 53% to 62%. Trinity recommends Trading Buy on TOP with a target price of 74 baht. Yuanta Securities Thailand said the CFP project will raise refining capacity from 275,000 barrels per day to 400,000 barrels per day, increase the ability to process cheaper heavy crude to 40-50%, and cut the use of light crude from nearly all of the slate to about 40-50% by the end of July 2026. As of end-July 2026, construction under the EPCM contract is 34.87% complete, with the fourth crude distillation unit, CDU-4, with a capacity of 220,000 barrels per day, targeted to start commercial operations in the second quarter of 2027, before the CFP project fully opens in the third quarter of 2028. The ERU unit, part of the CFP project, will have 250 megawatts of power generation capacity and produce 175 tonnes of steam per hour. TOP and Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited, or GPSC, are in talks to buy and sell ERU after failing to meet the original conditions, with a conclusion expected by October 30, 2026. Yuanta maintains a Trading recommendation with a target price of 74 baht. Globlex Securities said the project's total investment value is about 7.15 billion US dollars, or about 6.39 billion US dollars excluding ERU, and maintains a Buy on TOP with a target price of 88 baht. KGI Securities (Thailand) expects TOP's crude run rate to gradually rise from 307,000 barrels per day in 2026 to 320,000 barrels per day in 2027 and 350,000 barrels per day in 2028, before increasing to 400,000 barrels per day in 2029 after the CFP project fully opens. It expects the project to add about 4-5 US dollars per barrel to market refining margins, and maintains a Buy on TOP with a target price of 70 baht.
Trinity Watthana Public Company Limited
Globlex Holding Management Public Company Limited
KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited
Thai Oil Public Company Limited
Global Power Synergy PCL