Trinity Watthana Public Company Limited

Several securities firms have turned positive on progress at Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, on its CFP clean energy project, as construction proceeds on schedule. The project will raise refining capacity, allow a wider range of crude oil grades to be processed, and shift the product slate toward higher-value products, key factors for lifting refining margins and long-term profitability. Trinity Securities said that after visiting the CFP project, it views the project as a major turning point for TOP's refinery structure, raising refining capacity from 375,000 barrels per day to 400,000 barrels per day, increasing the share of upgrading unit capacity from 28% to 50%, and lifting the refinery complexity index from 9.8 to 12. The share of high-value products, especially diesel and jet fuel, will rise from 53% to 62%. Trinity recommends Trading Buy on TOP with a target price of 74 baht. Yuanta Securities Thailand said the CFP project will raise refining capacity from 275,000 barrels per day to 400,000 barrels per day, increase the ability to process cheaper heavy crude to 40-50%, and cut the use of light crude from nearly all of the slate to about 40-50% by the end of July 2026. As of end-July 2026, construction under the EPCM contract is 34.87% complete, with the fourth crude distillation unit, CDU-4, with a capacity of 220,000 barrels per day, targeted to start commercial operations in the second quarter of 2027, before the CFP project fully opens in the third quarter of 2028. The ERU unit, part of the CFP project, will have 250 megawatts of power generation capacity and produce 175 tonnes of steam per hour. TOP and Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited, or GPSC, are in talks to buy and sell ERU after failing to meet the original conditions, with a conclusion expected by October 30, 2026. Yuanta maintains a Trading recommendation with a target price of 74 baht. Globlex Securities said the project's total investment value is about 7.15 billion US dollars, or about 6.39 billion US dollars excluding ERU, and maintains a Buy on TOP with a target price of 88 baht. KGI Securities (Thailand) expects TOP's crude run rate to gradually rise from 307,000 barrels per day in 2026 to 320,000 barrels per day in 2027 and 350,000 barrels per day in 2028, before increasing to 400,000 barrels per day in 2029 after the CFP project fully opens. It expects the project to add about 4-5 US dollars per barrel to market refining margins, and maintains a Buy on TOP with a target price of 70 baht.

Trinity Securities, together with the Stock Exchange of Thailand, held a seminar titled The Window to Global Market under the theme of opening up global investment through Depositary Receipts. The event drew a large turnout of investors and the public, reflecting strong interest in diversifying investments into international markets via Depositary Receipts. These instruments allow Thai investors to access leading global stocks and indices in Thai baht through their local stock trading accounts, without needing to open an overseas investment account. Dr. Visit Ongpipattanakul, Chairman of Trinity Securities, said that diversifying investments into global markets is not just an option but a crucial approach to managing risk and enabling portfolios to grow alongside megatrends and world-class companies. The seminar covered global economic outlook and investment opportunities in 2026, portfolio strategy planning, and an exchange of views with leading DR issuers, namely InnovestX, or DR23, and Krungthai Bank, or DR80. It also featured a demonstration of DR Terminal, an AI-powered tool designed by Trinity to help investors efficiently search, analyze, and track DR information.

Trinity Watthana, or TNITY, advises investors in the second half of this year to diversify away from the technology sector, which has seen significant price increases, and rotate into value stocks, defensive sectors, financials, and utilities. The firm assesses that the Thai stock market index has the potential to respond positively to private investment inflows and production base relocation, even though domestic consumption remains slow to recover. Currently, the Thai stock market trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of just 12.2 times, which is considered an attractive level. The main factor shaping global capital market direction is the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. Second-quarter earnings for companies in the S&P 500 index showed net profit growth of 22 percent compared to the same period last year. However, the Fed still faces challenges from inflation at 3.4 percent, above its 2 percent target, leading many Fed committee members to maintain a hawkish stance on rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates, pushing the yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds to nearly 4 percent, which could trigger a massive capital repatriation phenomenon worth over 2.43 trillion US dollars. The investment trend in artificial intelligence that has strongly driven stock markets is beginning to show signs of fragility. Companies that need to invest heavily in AI infrastructure are facing credit constraints and higher borrowing costs, reflected in rising risk premiums. This is making the market increasingly cautious that the tech stock bubble could morph into a debt bubble. Regarding the Middle East conflict, although there is a chance for negotiations, it will leave clear traces of power polarization, which will result in investment relocation to non-aligned countries, including Thailand. At the same time, if the US election results in a divided government, it will weaken the dollar, and more funds will flow into emerging markets. Currently, emerging markets are starting to show signs of recovery and are clearly delivering better returns than developed markets.