Galaxy's Alex Thorn Says Bitcoin Low Is In After 50-Week Average Reclaim

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Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, said Bitcoin's first weekly close above its 50-week moving average in 45 weeks signals the bear market low is in, after the cryptocurrency closed the week of September 20 at $81,159. Thorn, writing on X, argued the $57,718 low from July 1 is unlikely to be broken, noting that in four of the last five bear markets the first weekly close above that average followed a low that held. Bitcoin traded at $84,702 as of September 21, 2026, up 5.3% in 24 hours but down about 3% year-to-date, and still 33% below its record $126,198 set in October 2025. The moving average stood near $78,786, and Thorn said the next test is the September 27 weekly close: a hold above that level would confirm the trend, while a close below would make September 20 a one-week fluke. The one exception to the pattern came from late 2021 to 2022, when Bitcoin crossed above the average twice but made lower lows amid the collapses of the Luna stablecoin, the Three Arrows hedge fund and the FTX exchange; Bitget's Ryan Lee said those were the only two of Bitcoin's 13 crossings that resulted in lower lows.

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