Diesel prices worldwide, including in the United States, have surged to an all-time record high after wars in Iran and Ukraine sharply reduced oil exports from major producers such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, while the options available to keep prices from rising are few. Data from the International Energy Agency shows that U.S. refineries ran at their highest level in eight years in late August, while refineries elsewhere ramped up fuel production to offset capacity lost to the wars. The problem is that refineries around the world are already running close to full capacity, leaving limited options to prevent energy supply from tightening and oil prices from climbing in the months ahead. Shipping data from Kpler shows that diesel exports from the Middle East fell by half between March and August compared with the same period a year earlier, to an average of 800,000 barrels per day. In 2025, the Middle East was the source of nearly 41% of Europe's diesel imports. George Shaw, an analyst at Kpler, said that if shipping through the Red Sea faces further disruption, there is a risk that the already tight global diesel market will face even greater shortages. The average pump price of diesel in the United States rose above 6 dollars per gallon this month for the first time, while diesel inventories rose by about 600,000 barrels in the past week to 96.97 million barrels, but were still nearly 15% below the five-year average in the second week of September. Meanwhile, Asia's benchmark diesel price, the diesel swap contract, has fallen from a record high of 200 dollars per barrel in March to around 180 dollars per barrel as of September 18, but is still twice its pre-war level. China's oil exports fell 26% between April and June compared with a year earlier, after Beijing decided to restrict exports of refined oil products.
Global diesel/heating oil prices hit record highs as wars in Iran and Ukraine sharply cut oil exports and refineries run near full capacity, tightening distillate supply.
