Geopolitics

In a speech at the United Nations General Assembly on the 22nd, U.S. President Trump declared that he completely rejects any attempt to build an internationalist framework to regulate artificial intelligence. Amid rising global calls for slowing development and establishing international rules as safeguards against the threats posed by AI, he made clear his intention to push development forward regardless. The president also indicated a policy of calling AI 'Super Intelligence' (SI), stating that U.S. government documents would be changed to use the SI designation. He explained the reason: 'The word artificial makes the intelligence sound fake.'

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivered her first general debate speech since taking office on the evening of the 22nd at the UN General Assembly in New York, emphasizing that Japan "consistently supports" the International Criminal Court, which the Trump administration is increasingly pressuring. The Prime Minister expressed her intention to "contribute to the maintenance and development of a free and open international order based on the rule of law," while avoiding any mention of the US administration's sanctions on ICC President Tomoko Akane. Citing Japan's efforts in light of the worsening international situation, she listed three points: strengthening supply chains, enhancing cooperation for peace and stability, and maintaining and developing the international order. She introduced that Japan is formulating economic and energy cooperation plans for Gulf states in the Middle East, and, with China in mind, pointed out that "concerns over arbitrary export restrictions are growing."

The United States, Denmark and Greenland signed an agreement in New York on 22 September to expand the US military presence on Greenland, a self-governing territory of Denmark. The signing ceremony was held on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, and was attended by President Donald Trump, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen. The agreement paves the way for the United States to add two more bases to the existing Pituffik Space Base: Narsarsuaq in the south, where the United States plans to return to a Cold War-era base, and Mestersvig on the east coast, which is currently a Danish dog-sled patrol unit. It also allows the United States to install the Golden Dome missile defence system in Greenland, given the island's position on the Arctic route between North America and Europe. The agreement also bars countries outside the North Atlantic Treaty Organization from establishing bases in Greenland and restricts strategically sensitive investment from countries the United States regards as rivals, particularly China and Russia. At the same time, the agreement states clearly that Greenland remains Danish, that sovereignty is not transferred to the United States, and that it will remain in force even if Greenland gains independence in the future, with key conditions concerning continued NATO membership.

Aerospace and defense stocks fell broadly Tuesday after President Donald Trump raised the prospect of a negotiated end to the U.S. conflict with Iran during an address to the United Nations, while warning that military action could intensify if Tehran refuses to reach an agreement. V2X fell about 3.8%, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions dropped 3.7% and Karman Holdings declined 3.5%, while BAE Systems was down 2.9%, Northrop Grumman fell 2.8% and Lockheed Martin lost 2.7%; General Dynamics, Huntington Ingalls, L3Harris Technologies and RTX also traded lower. Trump told the UN General Assembly he expects the United States eventually to reach an agreement with Iran and believes Tehran will make a deal after the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3, and Reuters reported, citing a senior Iranian official, that Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington reduces military pressure and ends its blockade of Iranian ports, with Iran's UN delegation authorized to restart diplomatic negotiations. Trump also said the United States has ample munitions and is producing them at unprecedented levels, addressing concerns that months of fighting have depleted U.S. weapons inventories, including Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot interceptors and THAAD interceptors. He separately predicted progress toward ending Russia's war in Ukraine, saying the United States was working with Russian and Ukrainian leaders and suggesting an agreement could come sooner than expected, leaving defense investors weighing possible negotiated settlements against the longer-term need to replenish weapons stockpiles.

US President Donald Trump told the United Nations General Assembly, or UNGA, that the United States has ended the war in the Gaza Strip and saved tens of thousands of lives. Trump said that when he addressed UNGA last year, the war in Gaza was still raging, hostages remained deep in Hamas tunnels, and there was no sign it would end. But a few weeks later, the United States ended that war. Trump also said the United States brought home all the remaining hostages, both the living and the dead, everyone without exception, remarks that drew applause from those attending the session.

US President Donald Trump said the United States and Iran will be able to reach a peace agreement immediately after the US midterm elections, stating there is no reason not to do so, and that such a deal would open the way for Iran to rebuild itself and become a far better country. Trump made these remarks at the United Nations General Assembly, or UNGA, while accusing Iran of waiting to see the outcome of the November midterm elections, and stressing that he is not running for election, so whatever the result, it will not change his policy toward Iran. The US leader also called on all countries to join the United States in enforcing measures to completely cut Iran off from the global economy, and said Iran should remain isolated until it stops attacking commercial vessels, abandons its commitment to developing nuclear weapons, and ends its support for terrorism. He stated that he opened negotiations with Iran immediately upon taking office last year and offered full economic cooperation in exchange for ending its nuclear program and support for terrorism, but the Iranian side refused outright, which he called a major mistake.

Teekay Tankers stock fell 2.9% through 10:55 a.m. ET, giving back part of a September rally that had lifted shares as much as 14% through Friday's close. The maritime services provider, which gets 87% of its revenue from its tanker business, had climbed as charter rates spiked: StreetInsider.com reported the cost of chartering a Very Large Crude Carrier supertanker passed $1 million per day, up 5 times from what chartering a supertanker cost before the Iran war began Feb. 28. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index closed just below 2,000 before the war, hit 2,421 at the beginning of September, and has more than doubled this month to 5,092, a spike StreetInsider attributes to a near-shutdown of Hormuz traffic. Today's decline follows a Reuters report that Iran offered over the weekend to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States Navy lifts its blockade of Iranian shipping, which would let oil move again and make tankers easier and cheaper to charter. The article notes this is not the first time rumors that the Iran war is about to end have pushed oil stocks lower, and that if the rumors prove false, charter rates and Teekay stock could go right back up.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that all Iranian airlines will be barred from operating starting tomorrow, which falls on September 23, 2025, stating that if Iranian aircraft land, they will not be able to obtain fuel, nor will they be provided landing services or be allowed to sell tickets, otherwise they will be cut off from the dollar system. Bessent said on CNBC's Squawk Box that the United States is pressuring Iran to an unprecedented degree and is going after Iran's supporters around the world, such as through the use of banking sanctions. Last week, the US Treasury Department announced sanctions against Russia's VTB Bank, which is under the control of the Russian government, as part of efforts to cut Iran off from the global economy by targeting Iran's business partners and financial backers.

US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social in response to media reports that the US weapons stockpile is running low after the war with Iran, insisting that the United States still has a large supply of weapons and that production is increasing at an unprecedented rate. Trump posted the message ahead of his speech to the United Nations General Assembly, or UNGA, tonight, saying, "The cowards and traitors like to say that the US weapons stockpile is running low, which is not true," and "We have more military equipment than we could ever imagine using, and we are now increasing weapons production at a level we have never seen before." Trump is scheduled to speak today at about 9:45 a.m. US time, or 8:45 p.m. Thailand time, following Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. US Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations Mike Waltz said the speech will focus on how Trump and his administration directly confront complex global problems, and will address ensuring Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons, as well as report progress on the peace plan in the Gaza Strip. It is also expected that he will support the development of artificial intelligence, or AI, so that the United States remains the world leader in this area, as well as discuss the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, efforts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, and reform of the United Nations.

President Trump has rejected calls to impose federal restrictions on artificial intelligence, calling concerns about the technology a "SICK conspiracy" in a Sept. 14 Truth Social post and arguing that the only guardrail AI needs is a strong and smart president. The comments followed an essay by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urging companies to slow the pace of development, which was endorsed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Meanwhile, the Trump family is building business interests in the industry: Donald Trump Jr. is a partner at 1789 Capital, which closed a $1.2 billion deal focused on real estate ventures including data centers, and both he and Eric have joined Dominari Holdings and helped launch American Data Centers. The brothers also have ties to defence technology, including the rare-earth magnet startup Vulcan Elements, in which 1789 Capital took a stake three months after the company received a $620 million Pentagon loan, and Eric is an investor in Space-Eyes, which uses AI to process satellite data. A Washington Post analysis in July found 15 companies tied to the brothers' investment funds have generated at least $3.2 billion in federal business since they joined, with SpaceX and the AI-powered defence firm Anduril accounting for 97% of that figure. Trump's own investment accounts have made nearly 30,000 securities transactions since he returned to the White House, including purchases of Dell Technologies, Micron Technology and GE Vernova, and Trump Media & Technology Group has merged with a nuclear-fusion venture and announced it will license Truth Social posts to AI labs.

Saudi Arabia has restarted its East-West Pipeline nine days after a drone attack damaged it, with Reuters reporting the kingdom may load crude at Yanbu on the Red Sea as early as Tuesday. The pipeline carries about 4 million barrels a day across Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea, roughly 4% of global consumption, and every barrel bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. Aramco is currently pumping at what Reuters sources called a low rate, and a security source said full restoration could take weeks. Brent crude dropped to its lowest price since September 8 on the news, while U.S. gas sits around $4.48 versus $3.18 a year ago and diesel is at a record $6.51 versus $3.70. Tankers are already steaming to Port Said and Sidi Kerir for ship-to-ship transfers.

US President Donald Trump is scheduled to address the United Nations General Assembly, or UNGA, today, September 22, at about 9:45 a.m. US time, or 8:45 p.m. Thailand time. He will speak after Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Mike Waltz, the US ambassador and permanent representative to the United Nations, said the speech will focus on how Trump and his administration confront complex global problems directly, unlike previous administrations that put things off. Trump will discuss ensuring Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons and will report progress on a peace plan for the Gaza Strip. He is also expected to back the development of artificial intelligence, or AI, so that the United States keeps its global leadership, and to touch on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, efforts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, and reform of the United Nations. Trump is also expected to meet leaders from several countries on the sidelines of the UNGA, including British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, and leaders from various countries in the Persian Gulf region.

JPMorgan has abandoned its baseline forecast for oil prices, with head of commodities strategy Natasha Kaneva telling clients in a Sept. 17 note that "we simply don't know how to model the endgame" of the Iran conflict. The bank had forecast in mid-July that Brent crude would average $86 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, assuming no long-lasting damage to energy production. JPMorgan said three economic redlines it believed the Trump administration would not cross have now been breached: $100 per barrel of crude, a national average gasoline price near $5 per gallon, and a 10-year Treasury yield near 5%. As of Monday afternoon, Brent traded at $95 per barrel, the national average gasoline price stood at $4.48 per gallon according to AAA, and 10-year Treasury yields were about to breach 5% for the first time under Trump. Kaneva, writing with analysts Lyuba Savinova and Artem Fakhretdinov, also flagged a "more concerning" spike in diesel, which hit $6.51 per gallon on Monday, far above its previous $5 record set in June 2022, as Republican lawmakers push President Donald Trump to ban diesel exports. JPMorgan now sees September fair value for Brent at $90, warning there is no shortage of risk for the market to price.

The Nasdaq 100 posted its best session since early August on Monday, surging 2.8% to a record close as investors concluded that AI-driven earnings growth has made the Federal Reserve's latest rate hike a secondary concern. Meta added approximately 12% on the same session, boosted by the breakout success of its AI agent app Muse, while U.S. crude oil tumbled 4.5% and Brent fell 3.4%, pulling the 10-year Treasury yield down more than four basis points to 4.95%. The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points last week to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%, its first rate increase since 2023, with projections showing the policy rate peaking at 4.00%-4.25% by year-end before holding steady through 2027, well below the 5.5% ceiling hit in the prior tightening cycle. The week's central event is the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for Thursday at the White House, where Boeing orders, rare earths, and AI regulation are on the agenda, with markets focused above all on whether the U.S.-China tariff truce, currently set to expire on November 10, will be extended into 2027. Yardeni Research analysts called it arguably the most consequential encounter of either man's presidency, warning that failure to extend the truce by November 10 risks reigniting triple-digit tariff escalation that would disproportionately hit semiconductor supply chains, while noting that Chinese exports surged 25% year over year in August after rising 23.9% in July and Chinese shipments to the United States are up 6.1% so far this year despite U.S. tariffs.

Foreign ministers of the G7 nations issued a joint statement on Monday, September 21, calling on the Houthi rebels in Yemen to stop attacking commercial vessels and urging Iran to halt arms deliveries to the group, amid concerns over global energy security after the Houthis seized control of key maritime shipping routes. The statement, issued following a meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, or UNGA, in New York, said the situation in Yemen constitutes an unacceptable threat to regional stability and security. Kyodo News reported that the Houthis have taken over Yemeni territory along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, a route serving as an alternative shipping lane to the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade corridor that has had to close since war between the United States and Israel and Iran broke out in late February. The ministers stressed the critical need to guarantee maritime safety and security on a permanent basis to prevent chronic disruption to global supply chains. Beyond blockading Saudi shipping, the Iran-backed Houthis have also launched attacks on Saudi territory, fueling growing concern that the regional conflict could widen and compounding turmoil in global energy markets. The ministers condemned in the strongest terms the Houthi attacks in Yemen and against Saudi Arabia, saying the actions of the Houthis and Iran represent a dangerous pattern of escalation that risks deepening the conflict, undermining international trade and creating global economic instability. Japan's foreign ministry disclosed that the United States sent Allison Hooker, the State Department's acting undersecretary for political affairs, to represent it at the talks.

A senior Iranian official told Kyodo News that Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States begins preliminary steps to reduce military pressure, part of the Iranian government's stepped-up efforts to revive negotiations with Washington. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has increased crude oil exports through its Gulf coast ports after last week's attacks forced a halt to oil shipments through the East-West Pipeline, which links the eastern oil-producing region to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said the UK will send one Voyager aerial refueling aircraft to Saudi Arabia in the coming days to support national defense missions, after Saudi Arabia faced an increase in attacks from the Houthi group. On the technology front, Alibaba Group announced a major strategic plan to train a new generation of artificial intelligence models with parameter sizes of up to 5 to 10 trillion, along with the launch of the latest-generation Zhenwu V900 AI chip and plans to expand data centers, to drive a comprehensive AI infrastructure strategy spanning models, processing chips, and cloud data centers. Meanwhile, a South Korean appellate court ruled to reduce the prison sentence of Kim Keon-hee, wife of former President Yoon Suk Yeol, to five years from the seven years handed down by the lower court, in a corruption case that included the selling of posts in state agencies. And Converse, a Nike-owned shoe brand, announced it is removing its controversial advertisement from all channels and issued a formal apology after facing intense criticism that elements of the image evoked the Ku Klux Klan.

A senior Iranian official told Kyodo News that Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days if the United States begins preliminary steps to reduce military pressure. The proposal has already been sent to the United States through intermediaries and calls for the resumption of negotiations aimed at reaching a permanent agreement to end the fighting between the two countries. Iran plans to use this week's United Nations General Assembly, or UNGA, in New York to hold discussions with countries acting as intermediaries. The official ruled out the possibility of a meeting between Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the gathering, but said progress toward an agreement remains possible, and that the United States must show seriousness and commitment if it wants the diplomatic process to move forward.

The Cabinet meeting resolved to approve the draft joint statement of the 12th APEC Transportation Ministers' Meeting and authorized the Minister of Transport or a designated representative to join in endorsing the statement on September 22, 2026, in Beijing, People's Republic of China. Ms. Ploytalay Laksameesangchan, Deputy Government Spokesperson, disclosed the outcome of the meeting. This meeting is being held under the theme of cooperation and innovation for building a better future for transportation in the Asia-Pacific region, with the goal of discussing emerging trends of change and promoting transportation cooperation to support the movement of goods and people, economic growth, and the strengthening of supply chain resilience in the Asia-Pacific region. The main objectives include promoting regional transportation cooperation with a focus on innovation, upgrading and transitioning transportation infrastructure toward digital systems, and the use of new technologies and artificial intelligence, as well as strengthening connectivity and the resilience of transportation systems and supply chains. This is in line with the Putrajaya Vision 2040, the Aotearoa Plan of Action, and the APEC Connectivity Blueprint 2015-2025. This draft joint statement is therefore an important mechanism to help promote the exchange of experiences and good practices, capacity development, and the continuation of practical transportation cooperation among APEC member economies.

The Vietnamese government said on September 22 that trade negotiations between Vietnam and the United States have gone well and made substantial progress, and that the two sides could reach and sign an agreement in the near future. A statement said the positive stance came after a meeting between Vietnamese President To Lam and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in New York, during the Vietnamese leader's trip to attend the United Nations General Assembly. In the talks, the Vietnamese leader called on the United States to take a comprehensive and well-rounded approach to resolving outstanding trade issues, including matters related to the Section 301 investigation under the US Trade Act of 1974, and affirmed that Vietnam has taken many measures to increase imports of US goods in order to narrow Vietnam's trade surplus. Greer said the two sides' negotiating teams had worked with full effort and achieved concrete progress, bringing the talks close to a final conclusion. Vietnam's economy relies mainly on the export sector, and the United States is Vietnam's number one export market.

Investors are playing both sides of the US-China AI divide, with Wall Street banks underwriting Chinese tech listings while Chinese money flows into US tech, according to Reuters. Wall Street banks acted as bookrunners on 19 Chinese high-tech equity capital market deals worth $17.2 billion so far this year, nearly 30% of the sector's total issuance, LSEG data shows. US equities held by Hong Kong residents and mainland Chinese have jumped 23% in the past year to top $750 billion, and US stocks account for nearly half of the 1 trillion yuan, or $150 billion, managed by China's outbound mutual funds. The total value of US AI funding rounds involving investors based in China or Hong Kong climbed from about $436 million in 2023 to roughly $8.9 billion through mid-September, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. AI is likely to be in focus when leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet this week in Washington, after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng discussed setting up a US-China AI dialogue.

The Chinese government on the 22nd added two chemical substances to its export control list for drug precursors, requiring licenses for exports to the United States, Mexico, and Canada. According to a statement from China's Ministry of Commerce, the measure was announced ahead of a planned summit this week in Washington between President Xi Jinping and US President Trump. The Trump administration has repeatedly pressed China to step up measures to curb the flow into the United States of chemicals used to make the synthetic opioid fentanyl.

Canada's International Trade Minister Sidhu said on the 22nd that free trade agreement negotiations with the Philippines and with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are each more than 90% complete. The Canadian government aims to conclude both agreements before Prime Minister Carney visits Manila in November. Speaking to Reuters on the sidelines of a Southeast Asian economic ministers' meeting in Manila, Sidhu said both sides have the will to reach a deal, and that this matters most. She said strengthening ties with Southeast Asia is not aimed at any one particular country, and explained that changes in U.S. trade policy are not the main motivation either. She also said that as Southeast Asian countries diversify their fuel sources, Canada is expanding its liquefied natural gas export capacity, and that more than five LNG projects at different stages of development on the Pacific coast are all aiming to supply Asian markets. She further said Canada has pledged funding support for the Luzon Economic Corridor, the Philippines' main manufacturing hub, and sees investment opportunities in energy, data centers and related infrastructure.

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has called on the United States to ease sanctions on North Korea in exchange for Pyongyang agreeing to freeze its nuclear weapons development at its current level, warning that the present stalemate carries risks too high to leave unattended. The New York Times reported on September 22, citing an interview with the South Korean leader, in which he said a trade-off between sanctions that are already largely ineffective and North Korea halting further development of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missile technology is extremely valuable and worthwhile. President Lee argued that aiming for immediate denuclearization under current circumstances is simply unachievable, but that if an agreement to freeze the nuclear program can first be reached, both sides can gradually build trust through incentives and reciprocal compromise, which would ultimately make it possible to persuade North Korea to reduce its nuclear arsenal. The South Korean leader warned that the current deadlock is fraught with risk, citing South Korean security assessments that North Korea may be adding 10 to 20 nuclear warheads to its capability or production capacity each year, and cautioned that if North Korea becomes convinced it has accumulated enough nuclear weapons and missiles to guarantee its survival, it may consider exporting these weapons to raise money for the country, which would be a truly dangerous moment. South Korea's presidential office disclosed that the government is shifting its policy direction from the principle of "denuclearization first" to an approach of "peace first." Since taking office last year, President Lee has expressed his intention to respect North Korea's regime and to pursue peaceful coexistence. However, relations between the two Koreas remain deadlocked after Kim Jong-un, North Korea's supreme leader, declared an abandonment of the policy of national reunification, stated that South Korea is the number one hostile state, and ordered a heavy buildup of defensive forces along the border front line. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is pushing for a new round of summit talks with Kim Jong-un, which the South Korean leader said he is ready and willing to support. President Lee is scheduled to present his vision for peace and coexistence on the Korean Peninsula to the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week.