Global oil prices hit three-week high as Brent tops $91

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Global oil prices climbed to a three-week high on Wednesday, as uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and still-disrupted supply pushed markets to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium. Brent crude futures rose 45 cents, or 0.49%, to $91.47 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude rose 45 cents, or 0.53%, to $85.39 a barrel. Brent touched its highest level since July 30, and WTI its highest since July 31. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM, said confidence in the safety of shipping through Hormuz remains low, while shipping volumes are still well below normal levels. The prolonged uncertainty means oil prices still carry an embedded geopolitical risk premium. Concerns grew after US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that there are no talks with Iran at the moment, while insisting that the Strait of Hormuz is open, contradicting Iran's claim that the route remains closed. Meanwhile, a temporary ceasefire expired on Monday amid a diplomatic stalemate, although there were no reports of attacks by either side on Tuesday. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy transit routes. Before the war between the US-Israel alliance and Iran began in late February, the strait handled roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supply. Data on Wednesday showed shipping through Hormuz slowed further, as most shipowners continued to avoid the route because of safety uncertainty. Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at Pepperstone, said commercial shipping through Hormuz remains nearly at a standstill because of ongoing disputes over transit conditions. He added that Brent breaking above $91 a barrel reflects a market that is pricing in higher risk, and opens the possibility that oil prices could return to triple digits, or above $100 a barrel. Iraq has begun preparing for export risks, with its cabinet approving a new mechanism for exporting crude through domestic and foreign companies, as well as using multiple export routes. Contracts under the new mechanism will run for three months, starting September 1. In addition, US inventory factors are also supporting prices. Sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute said US crude and refined product stockpiles fell last week, while gasoline inventories rose. The market is still waiting for official figures from the US Energy Information Administration. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect US crude stockpiles to fall by about 600,000 barrels in the week ended August 14.

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