Goldman Sachs Doubles Diesel Margin Forecasts Through 2027

AnalystCommodityGeopolitics Impact 4
โดย GuruFocus·GLOBAL·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Goldman Sachs has sharply raised its outlook for diesel refining margins, signaling that the global fuel squeeze could persist well into 2027 and deliver another earnings tailwind for refiners such as Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and Phillips 66. The bank more than doubled its forecasts as wars in the Middle East and Ukraine disrupt refining capacity, tighten inventories, and keep diesel prices elevated. Goldman now expects the profit from producing a barrel of diesel over Brent crude to average $63 per barrel in the U.S. and $49 in Europe next year, sharply above its previous forecasts of $27 and $19, respectively. The supply squeeze is unusually severe, with refinery outages running 60% above seasonal norms and inventories continuing to fall. Russia, normally the world's second-largest diesel exporter, has extended its diesel export ban through September 30 after Ukrainian attacks disrupted domestic refineries. Middle Eastern disruptions are compounding the shortage, as Asian refined-fuel imports fell to 5.1 million barrels per day in August, roughly 2 million barrels below pre-war levels, while diesel refining margins in Singapore have tripled since the conflict began. Goldman warned that a full recovery in runs requires global geopolitical de-escalation.

Impact on stocks 5

Synthetic Biology (non-pharma)▲ · 3 stocks
Marathon Petroleum Corp
MPC
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

Goldman doubles diesel margin forecasts due to supply disruptions, benefiting refiners like Marathon

Phillips 66
PSX
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

Goldman doubles diesel margin forecasts due to supply disruptions, benefiting refiners like Phillips 66

Valero Energy Corporation
VLO
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

Goldman doubles diesel margin forecasts due to supply disruptions, benefiting refiners like Valero

Financials▲ · 1 stocks
Artificial Intelligence▲ · 1 stocks

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