Hormuz Reopening Quickly Floods Oil Markets With Supply

CommodityGeopolitics Impact 5
โดย Bloomberg·Read original
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The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is rapidly flooding global oil markets with supply, sending prices tumbling. Angolan crude, typically bought by China, has sold at discounts of nearly $10 a barrel below Dated Brent, the widest in over a decade, while Middle Eastern crude has flipped into a bearish contango structure and global Brent futures fell below $75 a barrel for the first time since the Iran war began. Even before the US-Iran deal, dark shipments from the UAE and Kuwait had pushed UAE exports to almost 85% of prewar levels, and Iran shipped 30 million barrels to Asia just before receiving a 60-day US license to sell oil internationally. The UAE has sold about 60 million barrels of Persian Gulf crude in recent tenders, and at least six supertankers carrying 12 million barrels from the UAE and Oman are heading to Europe, while Nigeria's Dangote refinery bought UAE crude for the first time. Goldman Sachs noted the reopening is proceeding quickly, and the IEA forecasts a significant surplus in 2027, though low US crude inventories at their lowest since 1984 leave the market vulnerable to shocks.

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