Hybrids to Reach 34% of US Market by 2030, Analyst Says, Lifting Auto ETFs

IndustryMacro
โดย Zacks Investment Research·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Automotive analyst John Murphy has predicted hybrids will account for 34% of the U.S. market by 2030, up from just over 18% in 2026, a shift that could redirect investor attention from speculative EV startups to established automakers and the automotive ETFs holding them. Hybrid electric vehicles reached a record 16% of light-duty vehicle sales in the second quarter of 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, while battery electric vehicles saw their market share decline to 6% from 7% the previous year. Toyota, Honda and Hyundai Motor Group currently control 86% of the surging U.S. hybrid market, according to Baum & Associates data cited by CNBC, with Toyota selling over 600,000 hybrids in the United States in the first half of 2026 for a 50% market share and Honda's hybrids now accounting for 31% of American Honda's total sales. The shift has been driven by the expiration of the federal $7,500 EV tax credit in September 2025, which raised the cost of pure EVs by thousands of dollars overnight, and by hybrid pricing that has dropped considerably, with Toyota, Honda, Ford, Hyundai and Kia pushing hybrid variants into their most popular mainstream models at a modest upcharge of $1,500-$2,000. Among the funds positioned for the trend, the Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF DRIV, with net assets of $359.2 million, has gained 12.3% year to date and charges 68 basis points, while the First Trust S-Network Future Vehicles & Technology ETF CARZ, with net assets of $46.7 million, has rallied 33% year to date and charges 70 basis points, and the State Street SPDR S&P Kensho Smart Mobility ETF HAIL, with assets under management of $18 million, has risen 3.7% year to date and charges 45 basis points.

Impact on stocks 7

Electrification & Mobility▲ · 6 stocks
Toyota Motor Corp.
7203
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Toyota sold over 600,000 hybrids in the U.S. in H1 2026 for a 50% market share, leading the surging hybrid market.

Honda Motor Co., Ltd.
7267
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Honda's hybrids now account for 31% of American Honda's total sales, and it is part of the group controlling 86% of the surging U.S. hybrid market.

Hyundai Motor Co. Ltd.
005380
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Hyundai Motor Group controls part of the 86% share of the surging U.S. hybrid market and is pushing hybrid variants into mainstream models.

Kia Corp
000270
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Kia is named among automakers pushing hybrid variants into popular mainstream models at a modest upcharge, benefiting from hybrid demand.

Ford Motor Company
F
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Ford is named among automakers pushing hybrid variants into mainstream models at a modest $1,500-$2,000 upcharge, benefiting from the surging hybrid market.

Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 1 stocks

Theme Impact 3

Off-coverage companies 1

Global X Management CompanyPrivate± Mixed
relevance

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