IEA slashes 2026 global oil demand forecast by another 1.6 million barrels per day

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The International Energy Agency has cut its forecast for global oil demand in 2026 by 1.6 million barrels per day, citing the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and higher fuel prices as key reasons. The IEA's August oil market report lowered the estimate by a further 510,000 barrels per day from the July report. Global oil supply in July rose by 2.4 million barrels per day to 101.5 million barrels per day, but was still 6.3 million barrels per day below the same period last year. The IEA cut its third-quarter supply forecast by another 1.7 million barrels per day from the previous month. Oil production in the Arabian Gulf region increased by 2.5 million barrels per day in July to 23.9 million barrels per day, but remained 8.3 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels. Due to uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the IEA expects global oil supply in 2026 to fall by 4.3 million barrels per day to 102 million barrels per day. Benchmark crude prices hit a two-month high in July, swinging in a wide range of 40 US dollars per barrel. The IEA said high fuel prices are weighing on oil demand, but expects demand to rebound by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2027.

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