Iran war fallout compounds yen strength, Japanese automakers face pressure

MacroDigital FinanceCommodity
โดย Money & Banking·JP·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Toyota, Honda and Nissan are facing risks from the impact of the Iran conflict and a stronger yen, after having benefited from the currency's weakness in the latest quarter. Toyota and Honda raised their full-year earnings forecasts, while Nissan posted its first profit in about two years. But the intervention by the US and Japanese finance ministries through yen buying in early August, a historic move after the yen tumbled to a 40-year low beyond 163 per dollar, has sent a warning signal. Analysts at Morningstar said a stronger yen will force automakers to choose between raising prices in overseas markets, which could lead to lost market share, or allowing operating profit to be squeezed by the reduced value of overseas earnings when converted back into yen. A 1% move in the yen affects Japanese automakers' operating profit by about 2%, and could reach about 4% for some companies. Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could cause supply chain disruptions and higher costs, because the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are key shipping routes for imports of aluminium and petrochemicals such as naphtha. The most significant negative pressure is a surge in raw material costs that intensifies amid the conflict.

Impact on stocks 3

Electrification & Mobility · 3 stocks
Nissan Motor Co., Ltd.
7201
▼ NegativeMonetaryrelevance

Stronger yen and Middle East conflict pose risks to profitability and supply chain.

Toyota Motor Corp.
7203
▼ NegativeMonetaryrelevance

Stronger yen impacts operating profit; company raised forecasts but faces currency headwinds.

Honda Motor Co., Ltd.
7267
▼ NegativeMonetaryrelevance

Stronger yen reduces value of overseas earnings and forces price hikes or margin squeeze.

Theme Impact 1

Related news

2

US auto industry groups urge Trump to block Chinese-made vehicles

Several US auto industry groups have sent a letter to President Trump urging him to block Chinese-made automobiles from entering the US market, ahead of a planned US-China summit next week. Among the groups that signed the letter are the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which includes passenger car manufacturers from Japan, the US and Europe, and the National Automobile Dealers Association. Chinese-made passenger cars are effectively shut out of the US market by high tariffs and other measures, and the letter, dated the 17th, calls for the current policy to be maintained. It argues that easing entry restrictions would "undermine fair competition."
Jiji Press·5hRead more →

Tesla Brings European Semi to Hanover, Targeting 550-Kilometer Range

Tesla is preparing to enter the European electric truck market, bringing its European Semi to the IAA Transportation trade fair in Hanover, Germany, after publishing key European specifications ahead of the event. The European version of the Semi offers a range of up to 550 kilometers and energy consumption of about 1 kilowatt-hour per kilometer, with deliveries poised to begin next year. According to Transport & Environment, new entrants collectively could capture 24% to 31% of Europe's electric heavy-truck market by 2030, though that estimate assumes manufacturers meet their stated production and sales ambitions. Tesla faces aggressive competition from established manufacturers that already offer EV trucks and hold extensive fleet-operator relationships, and its 550-kilometer range sits below some competing models that can travel roughly 700 kilometers on a single charge. The company would also need heavy capital spending on high-power charging infrastructure along freight corridors and must scale production alongside Semi deliveries to achieve mass adoption. Hedge fund holdings in Tesla declined to 116 in the second quarter from 123 in the first quarter, with BAMCO Inc. raising its stake by 5% to approximately $5.27 billion and DE Shaw cutting its position by 1% to about $1.83 billion.
Insider Monkey·7hRead more →
3impact 5

Volkswagen Cuts 2026 Profit Outlook on China Slump and Porsche Writedown

Volkswagen has dramatically cut its 2026 profit outlook, now expecting an operating margin of no more than 1% this year, down from its previous forecast of at least 4%. The German carmaker expects around €10 billion, or $11.5 billion, in charges this year, including restructuring costs tied to workforce reductions and writedowns on Chinese assets; that total includes a €6-billion writedown related to Porsche, reflecting revised long-term expectations for the sports-car maker. Excluding the exceptional charges, Volkswagen said its operating margin would be around 4%. Volkswagen shares fell more than 7% following the announcement, dragging other automakers lower. Chief Financial Officer Arno Antlitz said the Chinese market has contracted by around 20%, with no stabilization currently in sight, while Chinese automakers take domestic share and expand into Europe with competitively priced electric vehicles. Volkswagen also said growing EV sales are weighing on profitability at its Volkswagen passenger-car and Audi businesses, and it recently reached an agreement with labor representatives that could increase planned job cuts to 100,000 globally.
Bloomberg·12hRead more →