Chevron CorpIraq's quota increase could boost oil supply, but Chevron's potential return to Iraq investment is positive for its operations.
Iraq, OPEC's second-largest oil producer, is pushing for a significant increase in its production quota from OPEC+, seeking to have a new production baseline of 6 million barrels per day used as the basis for determining quotas in 2027, well above the current ceiling of 4.431 million barrels per day. Sources familiar with the matter say Iraq signaled in June that it might withdraw from the group if its production baseline is not adjusted upward, and Iraq's withdrawal would deal a major blow to the alliance, following the earlier exit of the United Arab Emirates. OPEC+ is having external consultants assess members' actual production capacity, with completion scheduled by the end of September, ahead of oil ministers' consideration for endorsement in late November. The outcome of this assessment is crucial for the balance of the global oil market, especially if exports from the Gulf fully recover, which could lead to an oversupply. Meanwhile, major oil companies such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil are negotiating a return to investment in Iraq. However, it remains uncertain whether OPEC+ will accept Iraq's proposed production baseline, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates Iraq's sustainable production capacity at only 4.9 million barrels per day, and actual production in August averaged just 2.98 million barrels per day, due to conflict with Iran affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Chevron CorpIraq's quota increase could boost oil supply, but Chevron's potential return to Iraq investment is positive for its operations.
Exxon Mobil CorpExxon Mobil's potential return to Iraq investment is positive, though quota increase may affect oil prices.