June MPI contracts 3.10% on autos and petroleum; Middle East pressures costs

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The Office of Industrial Economics reported that the Manufacturing Production Index for June 2026 stood at 94.99, contracting 3.10 percent from the same period last year, with a capacity utilization rate of 57.61 percent. For the second quarter, the average index was 95.96, down 1.79 percent, and the average capacity utilization rate was 57.47 percent. Key pressure came from contractions in the automotive and petroleum industries, compounded by the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, which caused energy prices and freight costs to fluctuate. Meanwhile, recovering domestic demand helped support consumer goods and essential products such as sugar, cleaning products, soap, and cosmetics, driven by the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measures. The ready-to-eat pet food and prepared food industries also expanded in line with consumer behavior, and the textile industry received a boost from the World Cup festival. The office maintained its forecast for the Manufacturing Production Index and industrial GDP at 1.0 to 2.0 percent, and assessed the impact of the Middle East conflict under three scenarios. Currently, the scenario assumes a 25 percent increase in oil prices to 100 to 105 US dollars per barrel, which is expected to reduce industrial GDP by 0.22 percent, or 9.3 to 11.3 billion baht.

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