Summary · why it matters
Kasikorn Research Center estimates domestic car sales in 2026 will reach 675,000 units, expanding 8.7% from the previous year. Passenger cars and multi-purpose vehicles are expected to sell 475,000 units, up 17%, while battery electric vehicles are projected to surge 71% to 210,000 units, driven by spillover deliveries under the EV3.0 scheme from the prior year, the Middle East conflict affecting oil prices, and continued intense competition. This contrasts with commercial pickup trucks, which are expected to reach 200,000 units, contracting 7% due to weak purchasing power among farmers and businesses. Battery electric vehicles will increase their market share to 31% from 20% a year earlier, lifting Chinese-brand vehicles' share of new car registrations to 32%, since more than 91% of battery electric vehicles are Chinese brands. Meanwhile, other nationalities' share falls to 68% from 77%, with internal combustion engine vehicles' share dropping from 55% to 39% and hybrid electric vehicles rising to 27% from 22%. However, only about 45% of the additional battery electric vehicles sold may be produced domestically, while the other 55% still need to be imported. Automakers not participating in EV3.0 and EV3.5 can import low-cost battery electric vehicles from China using zero import tariffs through free trade agreements, while participating automakers still need to import many models because the Thai market is not yet large enough and domestic production costs are higher than in China. The government is therefore considering restructuring excise tax rates to attract domestic production, taking into account the tax rate differential between domestically produced and imported vehicles, and the ability to increase local content usage, since selling prices of many battery electric vehicle models in China are still more than 20% lower than those in Thailand.
