Kasikorn Research Center says 30,000-baht earners are the new vulnerable group

MacroCommodity

โดย Prachachat·

Summary · why it matters

Kasikorn Research Center reported that Thailand's economy will expand by only 1.7% in the second half, slowing from 2.4% in the first half, and is expected to grow 2% for the full year, in line with its previous forecast. Dr. Lalita Thienprasiddhi, head of research, said purchasing power remains fragile and weak because high energy prices and El Nino have affected food prices. Dr. Kanchana Chokpaisarnsilp estimated that total credit in 2026 will grow by only 0.5%, and that the commercial banking system's non-performing loans could rise from 2.76% at the end of the second quarter of 2026 to a range of 2.80-3.00%. Thakorn Piyapan, chief executive of TMBThanachart Bank, said households earning less than 30,000 baht a month have become the new vulnerable group, especially in Bangkok, and are increasingly likely to be denied credit. Bank of Thailand Governor Vitai Ratanakorn said SME loans have been negative for 16 consecutive quarters and the share of zombie businesses has risen from 2.7% in 2013 to 5.7% in 2024. Brent crude oil on September 11, 2026 traded near 108 dollars a barrel and West Texas near 102 dollars amid Middle East conflict. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas is pushing to finalize the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus Phase 2 by the end of September, with 26 million users of the program plus 13 million state welfare card holders, about 40 million people in total. Operators including Siam Global House, Maguro, Ichitan and Osotspa are all adjusting their strategies. Siam Global House is keeping its plan to open at least 6-8 branches a year. Maguro is accelerating expansion of its 14 brands while competitors are weak. Osotspa has reformulated its energy drink to 5 grams of sugar per bottle and is upgrading its factory in Ayutthaya to a fully automated system, reducing its reliance on 200-300 workers. Ichitan is focusing on 10-baht products and 1-liter sizes. Meanwhile, the property market has hundreds of thousands of unsold units, forcing operators to hold clearance sales at reduced prices and sell off assets.