Siam Global House Public Company Limited

Farm income in July accelerated 10% from a year earlier, marking a fifth straight month of growth and the strongest pace in 20 months, helped by a 12% rise in agricultural prices while output fell 2%. An analysis from Yuanta Securities said products with improving prices included cassava, palm oil and chicken eggs, while hog prices declined. Durian and hog output increased, while cassava, rambutan, mangosteen, oil palm and chicken egg production decreased. Farm income is expected to keep accelerating from the third quarter through the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by continued growth in key product revenue, output affected by drought and lower global supply, a low base last year, and a recovery cycle that typically lasts about 12 months. This cycle has already risen for five months, so there is a chance of at least another five to six months of gains. The agricultural economy accounts for 10% of GDP and involves about 30% of the population, so it is expected to significantly support consumption in the second half of 2026. It should also improve asset quality for financial institutions and ease household debt pressure, which is positive for finance stocks, while stimulating investment in machinery, tractors, water pumps, fertilizer, seeds, solar energy and farmland improvement. Recommended stocks include GFPT, TFG, STA, GLOBAL, DOHOME, MTC, SAWAD, FSMART, DRT, DCC and SAT. The analysis also suggests monitoring APURE, or Agripure Holdings Public Company Limited, whose second-quarter 2025 results recovered with net profit of 56 million baht, accelerating from 12 million baht in the first quarter of 2026 and swinging from a loss of 34 million baht in the second quarter of 2025. This was driven by export sales to Europe surging eight to ten times after Europe restricted Chinese goods seen as dumped, sending large order volumes to APURE. The company has already planned for drought-related costs, and customers bear all shipping costs, so third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to accelerate both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with the best chance in ten quarters. Fourth-quarter profit is expected to be stable quarter-on-quarter and grow strongly year-on-year. If this materializes, full-year profit would be around 250 million baht, up from only 27 million baht last year, implying earnings per share of 0.26 baht. The current share price trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 8 times, with an expected dividend yield of 8 to 9 percent per year. Technically, the price has just moved back above the 200-day moving average with positive signals, with resistance at 2.60 baht and 2.80 baht.

Siam Global House Public Company Limited, or GLOBAL, has set a gross profit margin target of 27 to 28 percent for the second half of 2026, higher than the previous year's range of about 25.1 to 26.6 percent, even though total revenue is expected to be similar to last year due to weak purchasing power. Yutthana Suriyawanakul, Executive Vice President overseeing investor relations, said profit will improve from better margin management and continued improvement in controlling selling and administrative expenses. In the first half of 2026, the company reported total revenue of 17.15 billion baht, up 1.09 percent, and net profit of 1.74 billion baht, up 53.54 percent from the same period last year. Factors supporting margins include increasing the proportion of private brand products, which carry high margins of 40 to 45 percent and reached 27.5 percent of total sales in the latest quarter, with a target to increase that share by at least 1 percent next year. The company is also using AI for truck routing and ASRS systems at its Wang Noi distribution center and nearly 60 branches to reduce costs. Overseas, the company is the market leader in Myanmar through a local joint venture, has one branch in Laos, and plans to open one to two more branches in the south. In Indonesia, it will open two more locations this year and one to two next year. Domestically, it just opened a branch in Udon Thani early this month and plans to open a branch in Chiang Kham, Phayao province. In 2027, it targets opening four to five new branches, supported by land holdings for nearly 100 locations.

Finansia Syrus Securities maintains a buy recommendation on GLOBAL with a target price of 8.30 baht per share and keeps its 2026 profit forecast for growth of 14.7% from the previous year, while expecting 2027 and 2028 profit to grow 1.2% and 1.4% respectively. The analysis notes that the overall analyst meeting was neutral and in line with previous estimates, with same-store sales in July 2026 expected to decline 5% year-on-year, but new store sales will help offset this. The company maintains its 2026 store target of 101 branches, up from 96 branches in 2025, and expects gross margin in the second half of 2026 at 27 to 28%, compared with 26.4% in the second half of 2025 and 29.1% in the first half of 2026, supported by a higher sales mix of the company's own brands.

Five Thai listed companies with market capitalizations above 40 billion baht reported second-quarter 2026 net profit growth of more than 50 percent compared with the same period last year. PTTEP posted net profit of 27.197 billion baht, up 101 percent. True Corporation posted net profit of 6.554 billion baht, up 222 percent. SCG Packaging posted net profit of 2.304 billion baht, up 128 percent. Central Plaza Hotel posted net profit of 166 million baht, up 51 percent. Siam Global House posted net profit of 955.48 million baht, up 83 percent.

TTB Wealth Securities maintains an Overweight recommendation on the retail sector, assessing that sector earnings have passed their trough and the contraction in same-store sales is coming to an end. It expects combined earnings per share of the retail companies under its coverage to grow 12 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, although down 16 percent quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal factors, and forecasts a continued recovery in the second half of 2026. Key drivers include a return to same-store sales growth, margin expansion from better product selection, and cost savings. The broker expects home improvement and furnishing retail stocks, namely GLOBAL, DOHOME, and HMPRO, as well as CRC, to show the strongest recovery, while CPN, CPALL, and COM7 continue to grow well on successful business strategies. For the building materials and home furnishing retail group, the securities firm estimates EPS will grow 37 percent in the second quarter of 2026, after earnings contracted continuously during 2023 to 2025, supported by better margins, a narrowing decline in same-store sales growth, and favorable product pricing from inflation. GLOBAL is seen as the standout, with earnings expected to grow 84 percent, driven by a higher proportion of house-brand products, cost control, and favorable pricing. CRC is expected to post 36 percent earnings growth in the second quarter of 2026, thanks to business strategy adjustments that support both same-store sales and margins, as well as lower marketing and interest expenses. Meanwhile, CPN is forecast to grow earnings by 15 percent, CPALL by 7 percent, COM7 by 30 percent, and MOSHI by 19 percent, with these companies seen as continuing to gain market share and expand margins. On the other hand, CPAXT is estimated to see earnings fall a further 17 percent due to weak same-store sales and margin compression from consumers trading down to lower-priced goods. For BJC, although earnings are expected to rise 12 percent from the acquisition of a wholesale business in Vietnam, the core BigC business remains weak with negative same-store sales growth. MRDIY is forecast to grow earnings by only 13 percent, below expectations, despite rapid store expansion. TTB Wealth Securities says the trend for the second half of 2026 will strengthen as the economy improves, maintaining a positive bias on building materials and CRC, and selecting CPN, GLOBAL, and CRC as top picks in the retail sector. For recommendations and target prices, stocks rated BUY are CPN with a target price of 75 baht, GLOBAL at 9 baht, CRC at 31 baht, CPALL at 62 baht, COM7 at 34 baht, DOHOME at 4.50 baht, HMPRO at 9.50 baht, MOSHI at 50 baht, and MRDIYT at 12.20 baht. CPAXT is rated HOLD with a target price of 14 baht, and BJC is rated SELL with a target price of 12.50 baht.

The Ministry of Finance is preparing to provide a grant of 50,000 baht per household to those joining the Solar Rooftop program, against an average installation cost of around 100,000 to 150,000 baht per household, with a minimum installation size of 5 kilowatts. The project aims to assist 500,000 to 1,000,000 households with average monthly electricity bills of 3,000 to 4,000 baht, using a budget from a 200 billion baht loan source. Analysts at TTB Wealth Securities stated that this policy will directly benefit Gunkul Engineering, as well as building material and home improvement retailers such as Home Product Center, Siam Global House, and Do Home. Meanwhile, analysts at Land and Houses Securities view it as a positive factor for GUNKUL and Synnex Thailand shares. In addition, the Ministry of Finance is collaborating with the Ministry of Interior, the Metropolitan Electricity Authority, the Provincial Electricity Authority, and state specialized financial institutions, namely the Government Savings Bank and the Government Housing Bank, to support low-interest loans for the remaining costs not covered by the government subsidy.

Siam Global House Public Company Limited, or GLOBAL, reported second-quarter 2569 net profit of 946.88 million baht, an increase of 82.46% from the same period last year when net profit was 518.95 million baht, and above the market expectation of around 700 million baht. This marks the highest profit in five years. Sales revenue edged down 0.15% to 8,170.98 million baht, but gross profit margin rose to 31.59% from 25.42% in the second quarter of 2568, supported by the push for House Brand products, whose share reached 27 to 27.5%, and AI-driven logistics cost management. Additionally, share of profit from investments in joint ventures increased to 104.86 million baht from 46.10 million baht in the second quarter of 2568. As a result, first-half net profit came in at 1,744.95 million baht, up 53.55% from the same period last year. Analysts from Krungsri Securities and KGI Securities have raised their 2569 profit forecasts, now expecting core full-year profit of 2.8 billion baht, growth of 39%, and recommend buying with a highest target price of 9.50 baht. GLOBAL shares last closed at 8.00 baht, up 5.26%, with a trading value of 675.27 million baht.

Finansia Syrus Securities recommends buying shares of Siam Global House Public Company Limited, or GLOBAL, and has raised its target price to 8.30 baht per share. This follows a second-quarter 2026 net profit of 955 million baht, up 83.6% from the previous year and 35% above the research house and market expectations. Key drivers include a gross margin expansion to 31.6% from 25.4% in the same period last year, and an increase in private brand sales mix to 27.5%. The research team has raised its 2026 earnings forecast by 14.7% and expects normalized profit to grow 35.3% year-on-year. Although same-store sales in July remained soft, this is expected to be offset by gross margins that remain elevated.

Land and Houses Securities recommends buying shares of CPALL and GLOBAL, providing resistance, support, and stop-loss levels along with earnings estimates and target prices. For CPALL, resistance is at 50.25 baht, support at 47.50 baht, and stop-loss at 46 baht. Net profit for the second quarter of 2026 is forecast at 7.3 billion baht, up 8 percent from a year earlier but down 20 percent from the previous quarter due to seasonal factors and higher costs, particularly in the CPAXT segment. Same-store sales at 7-Eleven, Makro, and Lotus continue to grow, but there is pressure from labour costs and new store opening expenses. The strategic target price is 62 baht. For GLOBAL, resistance is at 8.30 baht, support at 7.50 baht, and stop-loss at 7.15 baht. Net profit for the second quarter of 2026 is 955 million baht, up 19 percent from the previous quarter and 84 percent from a year earlier, beating expectations by 40 percent. This was driven by a gross margin increase to 31.6 percent, thanks to a product mix shift towards house brands and home improvement categories, as well as improved procurement and logistics efficiency. The strategic target price is 8 baht.

Dao Securities Thailand expects the SET Index to recover gradually, supported by a rebound in US technology stocks, which is positive for Thai electronics shares. It warns of resistance at 1,650 points, where profit-taking could emerge. Among top picks, the broker highlights GLOBAL, which posted a second-quarter 2026 net profit of 955 million baht, beating expectations by 40 percent, and raises its target price to 9.00 baht. For TU, net profit came in at 1.3 billion baht, 16 percent above forecast, with a new target price of 14.80 baht. TU also announced a first-half 2026 dividend of 0.4 baht per share, representing a dividend yield of 3 percent.

GLOBAL's net profit for the second quarter of 2026 is projected at approximately 650 to 700 million baht, up 35 percent year-on-year but down 13 percent quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal factors. Although same-store sales dipped around 2 percent, the company benefited from six new branches opened over the past 12 months, bringing the total to 100 branches from 94 in the second quarter of 2025. Gross margin is expected to hit a new record above 27.5 percent, up from 20.5 percent in the second quarter of 2025, driven by a higher share of house-brand products, along with better cost control and inventory management efficiency. For the second half of 2026, profit is still expected to grow year-on-year, supported by continued gross margin expansion. The company plans to open five new domestic branches in 2026, renovate eight existing ones, and open three more branches in the second half. Overseas, it currently operates 42 branches and plans to add one in Myanmar and three in Indonesia. Full-year total revenue is expected to grow around 5 percent, with a commitment to keep full-year same-store sales from turning negative and gross margin no lower than 26 percent. On valuation, the current price trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 times, above the home improvement retail sector average of 17.1 times. The analyst consensus target price is 8.05 baht.

Thunhoon reports that FORTH and GLOBAL shares are once again attracting investor interest after a significant share price recovery. FORTH reported fourth-quarter 2024 results swinging back to a net profit of 102 million baht, compared with a loss in the same period last year. Meanwhile, GLOBAL posted a net profit of 1.2 billion baht, up 15 percent from the previous year. Brokers view the business outlook for both companies as still enjoying good growth, supported by recovering domestic demand.

Kingsford Securities places afternoon support for the SET index at 1,625 to 1,630 points and resistance at 1,635 to 1,640 points, after the morning session closed down 11.91 points at 1,632.48 points with a trading value of 53 billion baht, bucking the mostly higher Asian markets. The index was pressured by selling in DELTA, which fell 5.8 percent after reporting second-quarter 2026 profit of 6.0 billion baht, down 33 percent from the previous quarter and 30 percent below expectations, due to a lower gross margin from chip shortages and higher loyalty fees. Meanwhile, funds rotated into tourism, banking, and retail sectors. The research team recommends FORTH on a technical basis with support at 16.70 baht, resistance at 18.20 to 18.90 baht, and a stop-loss at 16.30 baht, along with GLOBAL with support at 7.05 baht, resistance at 7.85 baht, and a stop-loss at 6.85 baht.

Land and Houses Securities has issued a research note recommending the purchase of GLOBAL and CBG shares, with target prices of 7.90 baht and 58.00 baht, respectively. For GLOBAL, second-quarter 2026 profit is expected to soften from the previous quarter but increase year-on-year, supported by an expanding gross margin from selling price adjustments and the use of low-cost inventory. In the second half, profit is expected to continue growing due to still-high gross margins and effective cost control. For CBG, 2026 revenue is forecast to grow strongly from its integrated distribution model and the expansion of domestic sales channels, with full-year profit estimated at around 3.19 billion baht, up 7.5 percent from the previous year. Although the gross margin in the second quarter may weaken slightly due to raw material costs and geopolitical impacts, a recovery is expected in the third quarter.

TTB Wealth Securities views the SET Index as still in a long-term uptrend, maintaining a year-end target of 1,720 points. New investment cycles from both the public and private sectors continue to be driving factors, while pointing to several signs of recovery. Bank lending has returned to growth for four consecutive months after contracting for nearly three years. Government budget disbursement has recovered from its low point, rising 8 percent year-on-year in the first nine months of fiscal year 2026. Money supply in the first five months of 2026 grew 5 percent year-on-year. Second-quarter 2026 earnings are trending better and have limited impact from the trade war, supporting upward earnings revisions for the SET. Domestic car sales are starting to recover, with the first five months of 2026 growing 14 percent year-on-year. Exports grew 17 percent year-on-year, and non-oil imports grew 35 percent year-on-year in the first five months of 2026. TTB Wealth has adjusted its Siam Senses portfolio, recommending 10 stocks: AMATA, AOT, BGRIM, CPN, DELTA, GLOBAL, GULF, KTB, STECON, and TRUE, with a buy recommendation for this round.

Phillip Securities expects the Thai stock index to trade sideways in a range of 1,640 to 1,665 points, pressured by a 2026 forward P/E of 16.7 times, close to the average since 2020 of 17.1 times, and banking stocks may face sell-on-fact pressure after earnings announcements. However, the TISA project measures will help prevent the index from falling deeply, and a rotation of funds out of banking stocks into real sector stocks is expected for speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings, which are anticipated to be strong. The investment strategy is divided into four main themes: speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings in stocks such as AMATA, CPALL, DELTA, HANA, ITC, KCE, MRDIY, MTC, OSP, QH, SAWAD, SCC, STECON, and TIDLOR; energy stocks in BCP, PTT, PTTEP, SPRC, and TOP; speculation on government measures or projects in BJC, CENTEL, CK, CPAXT, CRC, DOHOME, ERW, GLOBAL, HMPRO, LH, MINT, and SCC; and hopes for investment inflows from China in ADVANC, GUNKUL, GULF, ROJNA, WHA, and WHAUP.

Siam Global House Public Company Limited, or GLOBAL, targets 2026 performance growth close to the country's GDP expansion rate, focusing on improving back-end efficiency and expanding house-brand products with margins above 30 percent, which currently generate around 28 to 30 percent of total sales. It also plans to expand domestic branches to 102 to 103 by the end of 2026, up from 99 currently. Meanwhile, its overseas operations in Myanmar have 13 branches, Laos 8 branches, and Indonesia 16 branches, continuing to expand despite challenges from purchasing power and fluctuating transport costs.

The policy injecting 200 billion baht under the emergency loan decree to drive clean energy and electric transport systems is positively impacting nine Thai stocks in the solar rooftop and electric vehicle ecosystem sectors. The solar rooftop group that will benefit fully includes GUNKUL from its integrated business covering equipment sales and installation contracting, SOLAR as a panel manufacturer and installation service provider, retail building materials and IT groups such as HMPRO, DOHOME, GLOBAL, and COM7 as distribution channels for ready-made household solar kits, and KTC from low-interest loan measures and installment payments for solar rooftop installation that stimulate card spending. In the electric vehicle ecosystem group, NEX benefits the most in the electric bus and truck segment, EA will ease liquidity concerns and unlock assets from its battery manufacturing and EV assembly plants, while GPSC and GULF benefit from investments in nationwide charging station infrastructure. Analysts recommend a strategy of accumulating on dips or speculating on policy momentum, while cautioning that EV and solar cell stocks often react quickly to policy news. Investors should scale in and avoid chasing prices during sharp short-term rallies.