Krungsri stays bullish on refineries, picks TOP as top stock with 83 baht target

AnalystAnalystCommodity
โดย ทันหุ้น·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Krungsri Securities maintains a BULLISH view on the refinery sector, expecting that over the long term in 2026-2028 the group will stand out on tightening supply trends and limited new capacity coming online, keeping refining margins above the 10-year average. Although spreads will normalize, they can still generate strong cash flow and sustain high dividend payouts. It selects TOP as its top pick on growth prospects and stronger long-term competitiveness than peers after the CFP project starts commercial operation in the third quarter of 2028, with a buy recommendation and a target price of 83 baht. In the case that the Oil Fuel Fund Committee resolves to cut the ex-refinery price of diesel by 4 baht per liter from 16 September to 31 October 2026 to ease the cost of living during the Middle East conflict, the research team views this as slightly negative for the refinery group, implying downside of about 3-4% to group earnings forecasts and trimming 2027 target prices by roughly 0.6-1.2%. If the government extends the 4 baht per liter discount through the end of 2026, earnings forecasts would see downside of about 6% for TOP, about 8% for SPRC and about 7% for BCP, with target prices affected by about 1.4% for TOP, about 2.2% for SPRC and about 2.8% for BCP respectively. However, the research team believes that if product spreads begin to narrow after October 2026, the government is likely to reduce the diesel price discount over the remainder of the year, noting that state intervention will gradually ease in line with product spreads as oil prices return to normal levels, allowing the refinery group to keep generating strong cash flow and paying high dividends. If share prices in the sector decline, it sees that as a buying opportunity.

Impact on stocks 3

Energy Transition & Power Demand± Mixed · 2 stocks
Thai Oil Public Company Limited
TOP
▲ PositiveCapitalRegulationrelevance

Krungsri names TOP its top pick with a buy rating and 83 baht target on growth and stronger long-term competitiveness after the CFP project starts in Q3 2028.

Energy▼ · 1 stocks
Star Petroleum Refining Co Ltd
SPRC
▼ NegativeRegulationrelevance

State diesel price discount implies about 8% downside to SPRC earnings and about 2.2% target price cut if extended through 2026.

© 2026 MarketDXNews