Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited engages in refinery and petroleum product distribution in Thailand and internationally. It offers petroleum products, including liquefied petroleum gas, gasoline, jet fuel, diesel, fuel oil, asphalt, and other products. The company also distributes various fuels, including premium and regular diesel, gasohol, unleaded gasoline, commercial and industrial fuels, and aviation fuel under the Caltex brand name. In addition, it operates a truck loading terminal to facilitate the distribution of petroleum products; engages in the operation of fuel service station networks; and provides property management services. The company serves commercial, industrial, automobile, and marine sectors. It exports its products to Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar. The company was formerly known as Star Petroleum Refining Company Limited and changed its name to Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited in January 2012. Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited was founded in 1992 and is based in Mueang Rayong, Thailand. The company operates as a subsidiary of Chevron South Asia Holdings Pte Ltd.
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CGSI Positive on Thai Refiners, Strong Cracking Margins
CGS International (Thailand) or CGSI stated in its analysis that it maintains a positive view on the Thai refining group. Although China is increasing exports of refined oil products, it is expected to be a gradual easing, as China prioritizes domestic energy security. Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict may delay the start of operations at the Huajin Aramco refinery to October-November 2026. Excluding the recovery in refining volumes during the US-Iran ceasefire in July 2026, global refining volumes are likely to decline by more than 2 million barrels per day in 2026. Additionally, Iranian and Houthi attacks have reduced refinery utilization rates in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait since March 2026, and Russian refineries have been attacked by drones, turning Russia into a net importer of diesel. Although surging diesel prices may cause demand destruction of about 330,000 barrels per day, the supply reduction of more than 1 million barrels per day supports Asian crack spreads. Tight heavy crude supply pressures heavy distillate production, and Russia's LSFO export ban helps keep crack spreads elevated. Thai refinery stocks have risen significantly and may face profit-taking, but CGSI views any pullback as an accumulation opportunity, especially for TOP, SPRC, and BCP, as strong GRM in the first half of 2026 will generate cash flow and support attractive dividends. However, it maintains a Neutral rating on the Thai oil and gas group due to concerns over downstream petrochemicals.
KKPS Raises 2026 Refining Margin Forecast to $19.60, Sets TOP Target at 80.50 Baht
Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has raised its 2026 Singapore refining margin forecast to $19.60 per barrel from $5.40, and for 2027 to $9.60 per barrel, citing tight refinery supply due to limited new capacity, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and damage to refineries in the Middle East. For Q3 2026, the Singapore refining margin is expected to rise to $25.20 per barrel before gradually declining to $16.80 in Q4. KKPS has selected Thai Oil (TOP) as its top pick, maintaining a "Buy" recommendation and raising its target price by 7.3% to 80.50 baht, implying 33.6% upside and an expected dividend yield of 9.6%. Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC) is the next top pick, with its target price raised by 64.4% to 14.80 baht, implying 21.3% upside and a dividend yield of 14%.
BCP stands out for dividends and SAF support, with a base-case target of 53.50 baht
KGI Securities Thailand maintains its 2026 dividend per share forecast for BCP at 5.30 baht, up 405% from 1.05 baht in 2025, expecting record profit of 31.4 billion baht and applying a conservative payout ratio of 25%. Management has confirmed a policy of paying at least 30% of net profit after required reserves, depending on economic conditions, cash flow, and investment plans. BCP also has a share buyback program worth up to 3.8 billion baht during 2025-2028, with the first phase completed on 15 June 2026, repurchasing 9.67 million shares, or 0.66% of outstanding shares, worth 336 million baht from a maximum approved amount of 1.1 billion baht. Third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to decline from the previous quarter because refining margins fell due to higher crude premium costs, insurance, and freight, even though gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel spreads remained strong at 30.0, 62.3, and 67.8 US dollars per barrel, respectively. Refining utilization is expected to fall 2%-6% to 260-270 thousand barrels per day because middle distillate storage tanks are nearly full after the Energy Ministry banned diesel exports from 6 March. However, profit from the SAF project, in which BCP holds 80% and BBGI holds 20%, is expected to nearly double because this is the first quarter of full recognition after commercial operations began on 18 May. Bloomberg consensus recommendations are 19 buys, 2 holds, and 0 sells, with an average target price of 53.50 baht as of 25 August. The share price is expected to be supported by strong refining margins, a dividend yield of 10.3%, and SAF profit, making BCP the top pick in the refining sector, followed by SPRC and TOP.
Foreign brokers raise targets on six energy stocks, see petrochemical recovery arriving sooner
Morgan Stanley has raised its target prices on six Thai energy and refinery stocks: PTT to 44.90 baht from 39.40 baht, TOP to 87 baht from 70 baht, PTTGC to 59 baht from 43 baht, OR to 14.60 baht from 14.30 baht, BCP to 65.70 baht from 51 baht, and SPRC to 19.70 baht from 12.90 baht. The moves reflect a positive view on the outlook for Thailand's energy and refinery sector, especially for SPRC, PTTGC, TOP and BCP, which received significant target-price increases. Sorachai Pittayapruek, director of analysis at Krungsri Securities, assesses that the petrochemical industry is entering the early stage of a new recovery cycle after facing oversupply pressure since 2023. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is acting as a catalyst for faster market rebalancing, because some plants that already had plans to reduce or halt production can use the situation as a reason to stop operations and cut product deliveries, removing a large amount of supply from the market during the crisis. However, once the Hormuz closure situation eases, product spreads may correct in the short term in the third quarter of 2026, but they are unlikely to return to the low levels seen in 2025, because not all of the old plant capacity that has been gradually shut down can come back to the market. Sorachai estimates that the petrochemical industry has a chance to reach balance sooner than previously expected. He had earlier estimated that the market could reach equilibrium in 2029, assuming plastic resin demand grows by an average of 1 to 2 percent per year and no severe economic recession hits. Once excess supply declines to the point of balance, producers' pricing power will increase, opening the opportunity for product spreads to sustainably stand above 500 US dollars per tonne. His recommended standout stocks are PTTGC and SCC in the petrochemical group, with BCP as the top pick in the refinery group, along with a buy recommendation on IVL and hold recommendations on SPRC and TOP.
Experts say crude oil prices will stay high until 2027 if the war drags on
Analysts estimate crude oil prices will remain elevated until 2027 if the Middle East conflict continues, with Brent crude recently at about 91.44 US dollars per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at about 85.45 dollars per barrel. If the war de-escalates, oil prices could fall to a range of 65 to 76 dollars per barrel, or an average of about 70 dollars in 2027. The Energy Policy Executive Committee has approved using excess benefits from July 2026 refining margins to cut the ex-refinery price of high-speed diesel by 2.40 baht per litre for another 31 days, the sixth such move, totalling more than 17 billion baht. This is expected to hit net profits of refinery groups in the third quarter of 2026 more than in the second quarter, with PTT Global Chemical affected most at about 4 billion baht, followed by Bangchak Corporation at about 2.98 billion baht, Thai Oil at about 2.93 billion baht, IRPC at about 2.5 billion baht, and Star Petroleum Refining at about 1.4 billion baht. Analysts recommend short-term speculative buying in line with oil price trends and waiting to gradually accumulate when the war eases, viewing PTT Exploration and Production as a direct beneficiary of higher crude prices while PTT benefits indirectly from the group's refining business.
SPRC becomes a dividend stock, broker expects 1.15 baht payout this year
Tisco Securities maintains a buy recommendation on SPRC with a target price of 12.50 baht and expects SPRC to pay total dividends of 1.15 baht per share in 2026, representing a dividend yield as high as 10.1%. Management reiterated a strong commitment to consistent dividend payments, with a minimum annual base dividend of 0.50 baht per share, already announced for the first half and expected to be sustainable throughout the refining cycle until the next major turnaround around 2030. For 2027, dividends are expected at 0.69 baht per share, a yield of 6.1%, and for 2028 at 0.83 baht per share, or 7.2%. The company guided third-quarter 2026 market GRM at about 15 US dollars per barrel, down from 23.7 US dollars per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, while lower operating expenses and depreciation should support second-half 2026 earnings. DD&A is expected to fall to about 15 million US dollars per quarter from 27 million US dollars in the second quarter of 2026, and the utilisation rate is expected at about 85 to 90% as long as export restrictions remain.
Brokers rush to back SPRC after stronger-than-expected Q2 2026 profit
Several leading securities firms issued positive notes on Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited, or SPRC, after its second quarter 2026 results came in strong, with net profit of 6.9 billion baht, up year on year and 9% above market expectations. Brokers such as Krungsri Securities recommend Buy with a target price of 13.50 baht, while Tisco Securities and KGI Securities set target prices of 12.50 baht, citing continued strength in refining margins. They expect third quarter 2026 margins at around 15 US dollars per barrel, supported by tight supply and a clear dividend policy. The company announced an interim dividend for the first half of 2026 of 0.50 baht per share, representing a dividend yield of 4.4%, with full-year 2026 dividend yield forecast as high as 10.1% to 12.1%. However, a negative factor is that third quarter 2026 profit may decline quarter on quarter because refining margins are normalizing from the high base of 23.7 US dollars per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, as supply begins to increase after the war situation eases. Higher freight costs and crude oil premiums, as well as regulatory risk that caps capacity utilization at 85% to 90%, also pose challenges.
Bualuang scans 8 energy stocks for Q2 2026, profits surge on refinery strength
Bualuang Securities reported second-quarter 2026 results for eight energy companies under its coverage, with combined net profit of 109 billion baht, up 195% year-on-year and 35% quarter-on-quarter. Core profit totaled 127 billion baht, up 237% year-on-year and 49% quarter-on-quarter. The refinery group was the main driver, boosted by higher revenue and margins from selling prices and elevated GRM and GIM amid the war situation. BCP, PTT and SPRC beat expectations, while IRPC, PTTEP and TOP were in line. BANPU and OR came in below expectations. The group's overall financial position remains strong, with SPRC in a net cash position, OR near net cash, and PTTEP holding net debt to equity of only 0.1 times, followed by TOP and PTT. BCP stood at 0.7 times, while BANPU and IRPC were higher than the group at 1.0 times and 0.9 times respectively. On cash flow, PTT and PTTEP have posted positive operating cash flow and free cash flow for six consecutive quarters, while BANPU is the only company that has not yet generated positive free cash flow during that period. For the third-quarter 2026 outlook, most management teams are cautious but still positive. Oil prices and GRM are expected to decline from the previous quarter as supply increases after Middle East tensions ease, but they should remain high compared with a year earlier. OR is more positive, expecting oil sales volume and marketing margin to improve from the previous quarter. The research team views BCP, PTT, PTTEP and SPRC as having potential to pay high dividend yields of around 6 to 10 percent in 2026, and around 5 to 7 percent over the medium term. PTT remains the top pick on strong earnings momentum and an attractive dividend yield.
Yuanta Securities says Middle East tensions support PTT as hedging choice
Yuanta Securities said the conflict between the United States and Iran shows no sign of easing in the near term, causing crude oil prices to rebound 5 to 6 percent week on week, reversing two consecutive weeks of declines. This came after Iran set challenging conditions before any agreement, while the United States continued its maritime blockade. Iran also refused to extend the temporary MOU agreement after the 60-day period ended on August 17, and US strategic crude oil inventories remain at their lowest level since 1982. Yuanta Securities views that investors can speculate on oil play stocks, highlighting PTT as the main choice for hedging Middle East situations, given its solid financial position and expected high dividends. Meanwhile, Singapore refining margins closed down 7 percent week on week at 20.1 US dollars per barrel, pressuring refinery stocks TOP, SPRC, BCP, IRPC, and PTTGC. Olefins spreads and polyester petrochemical spreads also declined week on week, weighing on IRPC, SCC, PTTGC, and IVL respectively.
Bualuang Securities released its review of the financial statements of 11 companies, finding that 8 reported better-than-expected profits: GUNKUL, CK, SPRC, CPF, CBG, AWC, HANA, and BCH. STECON and BH posted profits in line with expectations, while BTS reported a smaller loss than expected. GUNKUL posted core profit of 567 million baht, 7% above expectations. CK posted core profit of 800 million baht, 17% above expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.20 baht per share. SPRC posted core profit of 7.09 billion baht, 11% above expectations, and announced a first-half dividend of 0.50 baht per share. CPF posted core profit of 4.57 billion baht, 13% above market expectations. CBG posted core profit of 736 million baht, 13% above expectations. AWC posted core profit of 232 million baht, above expectations. HANA posted core profit of 278 million baht, 25% above expectations. BCH posted core profit of 343 million baht, 13% above expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.15 baht per share. STECON posted core profit of 910 million baht, in line with expectations. BH posted core profit of 1.89 billion baht, in line with expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 4 baht per share. BTS reported a core loss of 601 million baht, smaller than the slight profit originally expected.
Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited, or SPRC, reported first-half 2026 net profit of 441.7 million US dollars, or approximately 14,355 million baht, and announced an interim dividend of 0.50 baht per share. The record date for shareholders entitled to receive the dividend is 31 August 2026, with payment on 14 September 2026. For the second quarter of 2026, the company posted net profit of 213.1 million US dollars, or approximately 6,926 million baht, down about 6.8 percent from the first quarter due to recognised oil stock losses. Adjusted net profit, excluding oil stock effects, was 221 million US dollars, or approximately 7,183 million baht, with underlying performance remaining strong on improved gross margins, higher crude intake, and lower operating expenses following completion of the planned major maintenance.
Crude Oil Surges 5%, Boosting Five Key Energy Stocks
Brent crude oil prices jumped 5% overnight after negotiations between Iran and the United States stalled. Iran stated it will not open the Strait of Hormuz until the US meets six conditions, including ending threats and blasphemous remarks, permanently ceasing war and aggression against Iran and its allies, ending the naval blockade and withdrawing military forces, compensating for war damages, lifting sanctions, and unconditionally returning frozen assets. This has led to expectations of prolonged talks and tight market supply, supporting a positive outlook for energy stocks, namely PTTEP, PTT, TOP, BCP, and SPRC.
Broker warns of short-term profit-taking risk in refinery stocks after product spreads correct
Analysts at Krungsri Securities have warned that refinery stocks face the risk of short-term profit-taking after petrochemical product spreads corrected sharply on August 4, 2026. The spreads for gasoline, jet fuel, and gasoil fell to 28.8 dollars per barrel, 57.4 dollars per barrel, and 65.7 dollars per barrel, representing declines of 16 percent, 19 percent, and 17 percent from the previous day, and drops of 25 percent, 18 percent, and 15 percent from the prior week's average, respectively. As a result, Singapore's total refining margin is expected to fall to around 22 to 23 dollars per barrel. The correction was driven by expectations of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, after refinery stocks had previously rallied strongly. Since the start of the third quarter of 2026, SPRC's share price has risen 46 percent, TOP has gained 35 percent, and BCP has climbed 32 percent, fueled by supply tightness concerns amid stalled US-Iran negotiations and the blockade of Hormuz. However, if share prices fall sharply, the broker views it as an opportunity to gradually accumulate positions, still naming SPRC as the top pick. Limited new production capacity is expected to keep refining margins above the 10-year average of 5 to 6 dollars per barrel, a level that generates profits, cash flow, and dividend yields above 6 percent. Even though product spreads have corrected, they remain above the estimates for 2026 and 2027.
Eye on Q2 earnings: Thai refiners grow in line with US peers on soaring refining margins, but hidden costs lurk
Second-quarter 2025 earnings for US refiners stood out on surging refining margins. Valero Energy posted a net profit of 3.7 billion US dollars, a more than fivefold increase. HF Sinclair reported net profit of 892 million US dollars, up nearly four times, while PBF Energy swung to a net profit of 915 million US dollars from a net loss a year earlier. Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum are also expected to report strong results. For Thai refiners, although they too benefit from refining margins, each company's performance will differ, depending on refinery configuration, crude oil quality, production efficiency, price risk management, and inventory gains or losses in each period. In addition, refiners must shoulder rising hidden costs, such as crude oil premiums, freight rates, and higher insurance premiums driven by Middle East risk, which could add as much as 3 to 6 baht per litre. They also face risks from oil inventory losses, higher financing costs from increased working capital, pressure from government and social measures, and the need to invest in the clean energy transition under Net Zero targets and ESG standards. Key listed Thai companies with core oil refining operations include Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited, or SPRC, and IRPC Public Company Limited, or IRPC, while PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC, has a refining business as part of its integrated structure.
Crude Oil Prices Surge, Boosting Energy and Refinery Stocks
Crude oil prices remain elevated, with WTI holding above 84 dollars per barrel and Brent near 91 dollars, after Trump signaled readiness to launch further strikes on Iran. Meanwhile, US crude inventories fell by the most in over a month, reflecting a tight oil market. Iran continues to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, fueling market concerns that conflict and oil supply risks may persist. Research analysts view this as positive for energy and refinery stocks such as PTTEP, PTT, TOP, SPRC, and BCP, given sustained high oil prices, but negative for companies where energy is a major input cost, while adding to broader inflation worries.
Krungsri Securities expects SPRC's Q2 profit to reach 6.4 billion baht, raises target to 11.50 baht
Krungsri Securities expects Star Petroleum Refining, or SPRC, to post a net profit of approximately 6.402 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, swinging from a net loss of 812 million baht in the same period last year. Core operating profit is projected at 6.707 billion baht, up 3,386 percent from a year earlier and up 314 percent from the previous quarter, supported by a higher refining margin of around 20.7 dollars per barrel amid tight oil supply and strong product spreads. The research team has raised its 2026 core profit forecast by 303 percent to 14.873 billion baht and lifted the target price to 11.50 baht per share, while maintaining a buy recommendation. The company is expected to pay a high dividend, implying a dividend yield of about 15 percent.
Three Hot Factors Pressuring Thai Stocks Amid Foreign Buying and Middle East Tensions
The Thai stock market faces pressure from both domestic and international factors, with the index closing at 1,644.39 points, up 3.36 points, on turnover of 89.2 billion baht. Three hot issues are on investors' radar: the second-quarter earnings announcements of banking groups, which led to sell-on-fact pressure even though some, like KKP and TTB, posted outstanding profits; the US imposing tariffs on Thai goods at a maximum rate of 12.5 percent, effective July 24, covering almost all export products; and renewed Middle East tensions pushing crude oil prices past 100 dollars per barrel. On the positive side, there is continued accumulation by foreign investors, who recorded the highest net buying in three and a half years, with net purchases in July exceeding 45 billion baht, focusing on banking, energy, and petrochemical sectors. This, along with the Thailand FastPass measure aiming to attract 700 billion baht in investment in data centers and electric vehicles, helps support the market. Analysts recommend a defensive strategy in fundamentally sound stocks with second-half profit growth potential, and to watch upstream energy stocks like PTTEP as well as refinery stocks like SPRC, which benefit from high oil prices.
KSS sees SET consolidating as oil tops $100; picks PTT, SPRC, KBANK as standouts
Krungsri Securities, or KSS, assesses that the Thai stock market is in a consolidation phase, with resistance framed at 1,650 and 1,665 points and support at 1,630 and 1,626 points. This comes amid pressure from Brent crude oil prices surging past $100 per barrel, the US 10-year Treasury yield climbing to test 4.7%, its highest in 1 year and 7 months, and the baht weakening to a 15-month low of 33.82 per dollar. Also weighing are US import tariff measures under Section 301 at rates of 10 to 12.5% on 60 countries, effective from 24 July 2026, though the impact on Thailand is limited as key exports like electronic parts and semiconductors are not covered. KSS expects stocks in the energy, energy security, and commercial banking sectors to be the main pillars supporting the index. It recommends standout energy stocks including PTT, PTTEP, BCP, TOP, and SPRC. In banking, it recommends KBANK and KTB. In telecoms, it recommends ADVANC and TRUE. In construction, it recommends STECON, PYLON, and INSET. In industrial estates, it recommends AMATA and WHA.
SPRC surges 8.63%, leading refinery group higher against market on rising oil prices and refining margins
SPRC shares rose 8.63% to 10.70 baht, leading the refinery group higher against the broader market, supported by continuously rising crude oil prices and refining margins. Krungsri Securities raised its target price for SPRC to 11.50 baht per share, citing prolonged US-Iran tensions and the US re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which tightens oil supply. This lifts 2026 profit estimates by 303% to 14.87 billion baht and 2027 estimates by 104% to 10.41 billion baht. SPRC is also debt-free, with dividend yield expected to increase by another 15% over the next five years. For the overall refinery group, Krungsri Securities maintains a positive recommendation, as petroleum spreads and refining margins remain above the government's assumed framework of 2 baht per litre, or about 10 US dollars per barrel, reducing the likelihood of government intervention.
Kasikorn Securities maintains Hold on SPRC with target price of 9.70 baht despite 333% surge in Q2 2026 core profit
Kasikorn Securities maintains a Hold recommendation on Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited, or SPRC, with a target price of 9.70 baht based on a price-to-book value valuation of 0.88 times. The research house views the latest share price of 9.85 baht as already reflecting much of the fundamental value, resulting in a downside of 1.52 percent from the target price. The research team expects net profit for the second quarter of 2026 to come in at 6.64 billion baht, down 9.8 percent from the previous quarter, due to the recognition of inventory losses and inventory valuation adjustments totaling 372 million baht. Excluding these items, core profit would surge 333 percent from the prior quarter to approximately 7.0 billion baht, driven by a recovery in the refinery business. Key support comes from a higher refinery utilization rate, which is expected to rise to 86 percent from 63 percent in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the market gross refining margin is projected to increase to 19.9 US dollars per barrel from 12.8 US dollars per barrel, following the widening of petroleum product spreads. The gasoline spread rose to 28.9 US dollars per barrel from 9.6 US dollars per barrel, and the diesel spread increased to 62.9 US dollars per barrel from 36.3 US dollars per barrel, after supply disruptions in the Middle East and export restrictions on petroleum products by several countries. For the third quarter of 2026, Kasikorn Securities assesses that the profit trend remains strong, with petroleum product spreads staying elevated. The latest gasoline spread stands at 30.9 US dollars per barrel and diesel at 57.4 US dollars per barrel, with these two products accounting for approximately 65 percent of SPRC's total output. Moreover, the absence of planned maintenance shutdowns will help keep utilization rates high and continue to support earnings.
Krungsri sees short-term volatility in refinery stocks after Energy Policy Committee cuts diesel price by 2.40 baht per litre
Krungsri Securities Research has a negative short-term view on refinery stocks after the Energy Policy Committee reduced the ex-refinery diesel price by 2.40 baht per litre from 24 July to 15 August 2026. It views that the higher discount request will cause operators to miss opportunities during a period of tight refined product supply, and reflects the government's desire to intervene and capture excess profits, becoming a factor pressuring share prices. This comes alongside sharp share price gains over the past month, with SPRC up 38.7 percent, BCP up 40.6 percent, TOP up 42.5 percent, and IRPC up 34.5 percent, making short-term volatility likely. However, in the long term, the research unit maintains a positive view due to still-tight refined product supply and the potential for refining margins to stay above the 10-year average, with SPRC as the top pick.
Brent crude breaks above 100 dollars, boosting energy and refinery stocks
Kasikorn Securities notes that Brent crude prices surged past 100 dollars per barrel after President Donald Trump threatened to escalate strikes on Iran and deliver a massive response if the Houthis attack ships in the Red Sea again. Meanwhile, the Houthis attacked two Saudi Arabian oil tankers, widening the conflict and heightening risks to global energy shipping routes. Both the US and Iran still show no willingness to return to negotiations. Analysts view this as positive for energy and refinery stocks such as PTTEP, PTT, TOP, SPRC, and BCP, given elevated oil prices and refining margins, but negative for energy-intensive stocks and the broader market due to inflation and higher interest-rate risks.
Krungsri Securities expects SET to consolidate today, supported by energy and banking stocks
Krungsri Securities expects the SET index to consolidate today, with resistance at 1,650 and 1,665 points and support at 1,630 and 1,626 points. Crude oil prices have climbed back above 100 dollars per barrel amid tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to test a 19-month high of 4.7 percent, and the baht has weakened to 33.82 per dollar, its weakest level in 15 months. Energy and banking sectors are expected to help shore up the market. As for the US import tariffs under Section 301 in the range of 10 to 12.5 percent, the impact on the Thai economy is assessed as limited, but it could be a negative sentiment for the investment climate. Domestically, focus today is on Delta Electronics' second-quarter 2026 earnings report, which is expected to show year-on-year growth but a slowdown from the previous quarter, and Thailand's June trade figures, with exports forecast to expand 15.2 percent year-on-year and imports to surge 35.8 percent year-on-year. However, with the long holiday in Thailand next week approaching, the investment mood is in wait-and-see mode, with selective focus on individual sectors. Highlighted stocks today include PTT and SPRC, which benefit from oil prices holding above 100 dollars and the uncertain situation, and KBANK, supported by rising US bond yields and clear fundamentals leading to a re-rating.
Energy Policy Committee cuts ex-refinery diesel by 2.40 baht, effective 24 July to 15 August
The Energy Policy Administration Committee, or EPAC, has resolved to lower the ex-refinery price of high-speed diesel by 2.40 baht per litre, using surplus benefits from refining margins of approximately 3.892 billion baht to fund the discount. The measure takes effect from 24 July to 15 August 2026. Analysts at Asia Plus Securities noted that this move is a short-term headwind for refinery stocks such as TOP, SPRC, BCP, IRPC, and PTTGC, but the impact remains manageable as global refining margins stay elevated due to tight supply from Middle East tensions. Suwat Sinsadok, Managing Director of Globlex Securities, recommends investors wait for opportunities to accumulate if share prices correct by 5 to 10 percent from current levels, given still-strong business fundamentals and a favourable full-year earnings outlook.
Asia Plus Securities estimates SPRC's net profit in Q2 2026 will fall 11.3% quarter-on-quarter to 6.5 billion baht, due to extraordinary items swinging to a loss. However, core profit is expected to jump significantly by 306.2% from the previous quarter to 6.7 billion baht, supported by a market refining margin rising to 22.8 US dollars per barrel from 12.8 US dollars per barrel, and crude oil intake increasing to 150,000 barrels per day from 111,000 barrels per day after the maintenance shutdown in Q1 2026. This lifted the capacity utilisation rate to 85.9% from 63.1%. The research team has therefore raised its 2026 core profit forecast to 12 billion baht from 7.5 billion baht, and its 2027 forecast to 6.6 billion baht from 4.4 billion baht, while lifting the 2026 target price to 11.0 baht per share from 10.0 baht per share. Although Q3 2026 profit is expected to soften on lower refining margins, the still-high dividend payout supports a strategy of gradually accumulating the stock during price corrections to capture the interim dividend.
Listed company profits in Q2 2026 at 276 billion baht, down 10.5% year-on-year
CGS International Securities Thailand forecasts that net profits of Thai listed companies in the second quarter of 2026, covering 127 firms or 86.7 percent of market capitalization, will total 276 billion baht, a decline of 10.5 percent from the same period last year and down 5.3 percent from the previous quarter. The main drag came from the energy sector due to weaker refining margins, and the transport sector which was hit by the low season for airlines. Meanwhile, petrochemicals, electronics, ICT, and tourism were key supports for the market. Energy sector profits are expected to fall 26.6 percent year-on-year and 11.3 percent quarter-on-quarter. Transport sector profits are seen dropping 72.1 percent year-on-year and 74.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, weighed by weaker results at AAV and THAI. Petrochemical profits are forecast to surge 326.4 percent from a low base last year, led by IVL and PTTGC. Electronics profits are expected to grow 89 percent, and ICT profits to rise 26 percent, helped by easing competition and improved ARPU at ADVANC and TRUE. Tourism benefited from the European travel season for MINT. Stocks expected to show outstanding profit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter include IVL, PSL, and BGRIM. Stocks with accelerating profit momentum from the previous quarter include MINT, SC, and 3BBIF. The stocks forecast to grow the most year-on-year are BGRIM, up 7,305.8 percent, IVL up 982.9 percent, PSL up 771.9 percent, SPRC up 666.8 percent, and AMATA up 599.1 percent, mostly driven by low profit bases last year and industry recovery. In terms of quarter-on-quarter momentum, the stocks expected to see the biggest profit increases are MINT, up 452 percent, SC up 441.7 percent, IVL up 263.3 percent, PSL up 169 percent, and PTTEP up 121.2 percent, supported by seasonal factors, a recovery in the hotel business, property transfers, and improved sales volumes and margins in energy and petrochemicals. CGSI has also selected top picks under its Quality and Earnings Momentum strategy, focusing on stocks with profit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, Outperform recommendations, and low volatility. These include PTTEP, MINT, SC, BAREIT, TVO, IVL, TNP, ZEN, BANPUU, and PR9.
Phillip Securities sees Thai stocks moving sideways, recommends shifting funds from banks into four key themes
Phillip Securities expects the Thai stock index to trade sideways in a range of 1,640 to 1,665 points, pressured by a 2026 forward P/E of 16.7 times, close to the average since 2020 of 17.1 times, and banking stocks may face sell-on-fact pressure after earnings announcements. However, the TISA project measures will help prevent the index from falling deeply, and a rotation of funds out of banking stocks into real sector stocks is expected for speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings, which are anticipated to be strong. The investment strategy is divided into four main themes: speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings in stocks such as AMATA, CPALL, DELTA, HANA, ITC, KCE, MRDIY, MTC, OSP, QH, SAWAD, SCC, STECON, and TIDLOR; energy stocks in BCP, PTT, PTTEP, SPRC, and TOP; speculation on government measures or projects in BJC, CENTEL, CK, CPAXT, CRC, DOHOME, ERW, GLOBAL, HMPRO, LH, MINT, and SCC; and hopes for investment inflows from China in ADVANC, GUNKUL, GULF, ROJNA, WHA, and WHAUP.
26 SET100 Stocks with Low P/E and P/BV Attract Foreign Capital Inflows
The Thai stock market continues to recover, with the SET Index closing at 1,646 points, up 30.67% from the end of 2025. However, 26 securities in the SET100 group still have price-to-earnings ratios below 17.50 times and price-to-book value ratios below 1 time. For example, RCL has a P/E of just 3.54 times and a P/BV of 0.48 times, while SPRC has a P/E of 4.35 times and a P/BV of 0.86 times. Krungsri Securities noted that foreign investors have been net buyers on the SET market for 18 consecutive trading days out of 19, with the latest net purchase of another 54.1 million dollars. There are also expectations from the planned launch of personal savings accounts that may offer tax deductions of up to 600,000 baht per person. Every new 10 billion baht of funds has the potential to boost the SET Index by 25 to 30 points. However, investors should consider other fundamental factors when making decisions.
Analysts say Q2 2026 refining earnings mark the year's trough before a second-half recovery
Analysts assess that second-quarter 2026 results for the refining group — TOP, BCP, SPRC, and IRPC — will weaken from the previous quarter, but expect this to be the year's low point before a gradual recovery in the second half. Supporting factors include still-strong Singapore refining margins, government policy risks that the market has largely priced in, and a return to full production capacity after maintenance shutdowns. The stock with the most buy recommendations is TOP, with a target price of 55.00 to 59.50 baht, followed by BCP with a target of 54.00 to 61.00 baht, and SPRC with a target of 8.80 to 10.00 baht. IRPC still receives only hold or speculative buy ratings, with a target price of 1.80 to 2.10 baht, as its petrochemical business continues to face oversupply and high debt.
Dao Securities sees Thai stocks volatile, recommends Selective Buy on fund flows and China-Thailand cooperation
Dao Securities assesses that the Thai stock index is likely to swing sideways in a narrow range near the short-term target of 1,630 to 1,650 points, amid global investor caution toward technology stocks and the still-sensitive war situation. The Thai market is supported by fund flows and higher crude oil prices, but caution is needed against profit-taking as it approaches resistance levels. On the domestic front, discussions between the prime minister and President Xi Jinping have led to the acceleration of the Thailand-China railway project and expanded cooperation in technology and AI, which is expected to support industrial estate and technology stocks. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Transport is pushing ahead with a common ticket policy for electric trains at 17 to 45 baht and studying congestion charges to subsidize mass transit systems. Overseas, the US stock market recovered on semiconductor stocks, but investors are still watching earnings from major technology companies. The Middle East situation remains tense even though Iran has signaled openness to diplomatic talks. The Chinese stock market rebounded after a national fund stepped in to buy and support the market, and authorities prepared to meet with financial institutions to restore confidence. The investment strategy focuses on Selective Buy, benefiting from fund flows and China-Thailand cooperation. Oil stocks such as PTTEP, TOP, and SPRC continue to benefit from US-Iran tensions, while stocks expected to gain from the World AI Conference include ADVANC, TRUE, INSET, AMATA, WHA, GULF, GPSC, DELTA, HANA, and KCE. The recommended portfolio adds MTC and OR, comprising MTC, OR, WHA, GULF, TOP, HMPRO, TRUE, CRC, PTTEP, and PTT, each at a 10% weighting.
Dao Securities sees SET Index moving in 1,620–1,650 range this week, supported by oil price surge
Dao Securities Thailand estimates the SET Index will trade in a range of 1,620 to 1,650 points this week, expecting volatility from heightened Middle East tensions after Iran's military launched attacks on US bases, pushing Brent crude oil prices above 90 US dollars per barrel for the first time since 11 June 2026. In terms of investment strategy, the firm recommends selective buying of stocks benefiting from the conflict and capital inflows. Top picks in the oil sector include PTTEP, TOP, and SPRC. Stocks expected to gain from the Thai prime minister's visit to China for discussions on AI and EV cooperation include ADVANC, TRUE, INSET, AMATA, WHA, GULF, GPSC, DELTA, HANA, and KCE. Dao Securities has adjusted its recommended portfolio, bringing WHA, GULF, and TOP back into the portfolio.