Shell plcWar disrupts LNG flows, threatening long-term demand growth and casting doubt on Shell's 2050 forecast.

The Middle East war has caused unprecedented disruption in global liquefied natural gas flows, with prices doubling since January to $20–$22 per million British thermal units in July, according to Gas Strategies CEO Pat Breen. The conflict prompted a force majeure declaration at Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, the world’s largest single liquefaction hub, and attacks on LNG carriers in the Strait of Hormuz have slowed Persian Gulf exports to a trickle. Global LNG demand could drop 8% this year from 2025 levels if the flow remains subdued, while Asian buyers including Japan have turned back to coal and Europe’s gas storage refill lags. Shell’s long-term forecast of demand reaching nearly 700 million tons annually by 2050 is now in doubt, even as 207 million tons of new annual capacity are expected by 2030.
Shell plcWar disrupts LNG flows, threatening long-term demand growth and casting doubt on Shell's 2050 forecast.