National cigarette and alcohol retail sales rose 13.2% year-on-year in the first half; baijiu sector rallies but earnings generally expected to decline

Industry
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Summary · why it matters

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 15 showed that in the first half of the year, the absolute retail sales of cigarette and alcohol products nationwide reached 354.7 billion yuan, up 13.2 percent year-on-year. In June alone, the absolute figure was 53.7 billion yuan, up 12.1 percent year-on-year. Boosted by this news, the A-share baijiu sector rose across the board that day. Gujing Gongjiu, Jinzhongzi Liquor, and Dahu Aquaculture hit the daily limit up. Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu, Shunxin Agriculture, and Jinshiyuan gained more than 5 percent. The sector's overall index rose 3.06 percent. However, the industry remains in a period of deep adjustment. As of July 15, about eight A-share listed baijiu companies had disclosed their first-half earnings forecasts. Except for Wuliangye, which is expected to report growth, the rest generally saw profit declines or losses. Tianyoude Liquor's net profit fell 76 to 84 percent year-on-year. Shunxin Agriculture's net profit fell 69.34 to 79.18 percent year-on-year. Jinzhongzi Liquor, Huangtai Liquor, Shuijingfang, and ST Spring are expected to report losses. Proactive destocking has become a common choice for liquor companies. Shuijingfang's channel inventory fell about 50 percent year-on-year. Shede Spirits controlled shipments to stabilize prices. Jiugui Liquor raised the strategic price of its 52-degree 500ml Neican liquor by 30 yuan per bottle and suspended shipments until August 15. Xiao Zhuqing, a Chinese liquor industry analyst, said consumers are shifting to affordable daily-drinking liquors priced under 100 yuan, and the premium on high-end famous brands is shrinking. Liquor companies need to face consumers directly to digest inventory.

Impact on stocks 14

Others± Mixed · 14 stocks
Jiugui Liquor Co Ltd
000799
▼ NegativePricingrelevance

Raised strategic price of Neican liquor by 30 yuan and suspended shipments, indicating demand weakness.

Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd
000858
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Wuliangye is the only baijiu company expected to report profit growth in first-half earnings, contrasting with sector declines.

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