Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 15 showed that in the first half of the year, the absolute retail sales of cigarette and alcohol products nationwide reached 354.7 billion yuan, up 13.2 percent year-on-year. In June alone, the absolute figure was 53.7 billion yuan, up 12.1 percent year-on-year. Boosted by this news, the A-share baijiu sector rose across the board that day. Gujing Gongjiu, Jinzhongzi Liquor, and Dahu Aquaculture hit the daily limit up. Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu, Shunxin Agriculture, and Jinshiyuan gained more than 5 percent. The sector's overall index rose 3.06 percent. However, the industry remains in a period of deep adjustment. As of July 15, about eight A-share listed baijiu companies had disclosed their first-half earnings forecasts. Except for Wuliangye, which is expected to report growth, the rest generally saw profit declines or losses. Tianyoude Liquor's net profit fell 76 to 84 percent year-on-year. Shunxin Agriculture's net profit fell 69.34 to 79.18 percent year-on-year. Jinzhongzi Liquor, Huangtai Liquor, Shuijingfang, and ST Spring are expected to report losses. Proactive destocking has become a common choice for liquor companies. Shuijingfang's channel inventory fell about 50 percent year-on-year. Shede Spirits controlled shipments to stabilize prices. Jiugui Liquor raised the strategic price of its 52-degree 500ml Neican liquor by 30 yuan per bottle and suspended shipments until August 15. Xiao Zhuqing, a Chinese liquor industry analyst, said consumers are shifting to affordable daily-drinking liquors priced under 100 yuan, and the premium on high-end famous brands is shrinking. Liquor companies need to face consumers directly to digest inventory.

On the evening of July 14, several A-share listed liquor companies disclosed their first-half earnings forecasts. The sector's decline widened in the second quarter, with three distillers warning of losses. Yet on July 15, the liquor sector bucked the trend and surged after the market opened. By midday, Golden Seed Winery hit its daily limit up, Gujing Distillery rose 8.72 percent, and Shunxin Agriculture and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu both gained over 6 percent. Despite the short-term share price rebound, after three years of deep industry adjustment, some stocks have fallen back to the starting point of the previous upcycle. Shunxin Agriculture traded at 10.87 yuan at midday, a level last seen in June 2013. Yanghe Brewery stood at 39.91 yuan, back to around December 2013. Shares of Shede Spirits, Gujing Distillery, Luzhou Laojiao and others have also retreated to ranges seen around 2019 to 2020. Earlier, multiple institutions published research reports bullish on the liquor sector bottoming out, noting that distillers' operating strategies have shifted this year. Short- to medium-term tactics broadly focus on destocking, stabilizing price levels, boosting sales, and strengthening direct-to-consumer engagement. The trend of proactive supply-side destocking and balance-sheet cleanup continues. Second-quarter results are expected to show a mixed picture of declines and growth. As the peak consumption season arrives in the second half, sales momentum is likely to recover further. Independent liquor commentator Xiao Zhuqing argues that the current earnings decline is the result of three long-term structural contradictions resonating across consumption, usage scenarios, and distribution channels, rather than a short-term market fluctuation. In particular, the contraction in government and corporate consumption is a systemic, long-term variable. Restoring consumer confidence requires a supportive macro cycle. The trillion-yuan inventory overhang in distribution channels will need at least one to two years to slowly clear.