Liquor stocks rally, Jinhui Liquor and Shede Spirits hit daily limit up intraday
The liquor sector strengthened today, with Jinhui Liquor and Shede Spirits hitting their daily limit up intraday at 16.89 yuan per share and 37.49 yuan per share respectively. Golden Seed Winery surged more than 7% at one point, while Kouzi Distillery, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory, Jiugui Liquor, Wuliangye, and Yanghe Brewery all gained over 4%. Goldman Sachs noted in its latest research report that the most difficult destocking phase for China's liquor industry is over, with supply-side cuts accelerating, wholesale prices of key mid-to-high-end varieties stabilizing, and channel inventories trending healthier. The industry is in the very early stages of recovery, but broader commercial demand recovery still needs confirmation due to macroeconomic uncertainties, and the industry's long-term market capacity faces structural contraction.
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Shanxi Fenjiu Appoints Chen Xi as Board Secretary
Shanxi Fenjiu announced a change in board secretary. Xu Zhifeng resigned from the position due to a job change and will no longer hold a role at the company. The board of directors promptly appointed Chen Xi as the new board secretary, with a term lasting until the end of the ninth board's tenure. In the first quarter of 2026, Shanxi Fenjiu achieved revenue of 14.923 billion yuan and net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.383 billion yuan.
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Shanxi Fenjiu Announces 6.56 Yuan per Share Dividend for 2025, Record Date July 30
Shanxi Fenjiu has announced its 2025 equity distribution plan, with a cash dividend of 6.56 yuan per share, tax included. Based on a total share capital of 1.22 billion shares, the total cash dividend amounts to approximately 8.003 billion yuan. The record date is July 30, 2026, and the ex-dividend date and cash dividend payment date is July 31, 2026.
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Zhang Kun, Liu Yanchun, Zhu Shaoxing collectively adjust portfolios in Q2, sharply cut baijiu holdings and shift to tech growth
The 2026 second-quarter reports of public funds show that well-known fund managers including Zhang Kun, Liu Yanchun, and Zhu Shaoxing collectively reduced their positions in core consumer assets such as baijiu during the second quarter, shifting their allocation focus toward the tech growth sector. In the top ten holdings of the E Fund Blue Chip Select managed by Zhang Kun, SMIC and Dongshan Precision were included for the first time. The concentration of holdings dropped from 90.5% at the end of the first quarter to 50.9%, and the overall position fell from 93% to 75%. The number of shares held in Wuliangye and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu declined by 70.68% and 70.91% respectively. The top ten holdings of the Invesco Great Wall Dingyi Mixed Fund managed by Liu Yanchun were completely replaced, with new additions including Konfoong Materials International and Zhongji Innolight. From the appointment of an additional manager on May 9 to June 30, the net value rose by 26.51%. The top ten holdings of the Fullgoal Tianhui Selected Growth Fund managed by Zhu Shaoxing underwent significant changes, with Zhongji Innolight and Zelgen Biopharmaceuticals entering for the first time. Kweichow Moutai dropped out of the top ten after being a major holding for 25 consecutive quarters, while the position in Sinocera was substantially reduced by 69.11%.
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National cigarette and alcohol retail sales rose 13.2% year-on-year in the first half; baijiu sector rallies but earnings generally expected to decline
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 15 showed that in the first half of the year, the absolute retail sales of cigarette and alcohol products nationwide reached 354.7 billion yuan, up 13.2 percent year-on-year. In June alone, the absolute figure was 53.7 billion yuan, up 12.1 percent year-on-year. Boosted by this news, the A-share baijiu sector rose across the board that day. Gujing Gongjiu, Jinzhongzi Liquor, and Dahu Aquaculture hit the daily limit up. Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu, Shunxin Agriculture, and Jinshiyuan gained more than 5 percent. The sector's overall index rose 3.06 percent. However, the industry remains in a period of deep adjustment. As of July 15, about eight A-share listed baijiu companies had disclosed their first-half earnings forecasts. Except for Wuliangye, which is expected to report growth, the rest generally saw profit declines or losses. Tianyoude Liquor's net profit fell 76 to 84 percent year-on-year. Shunxin Agriculture's net profit fell 69.34 to 79.18 percent year-on-year. Jinzhongzi Liquor, Huangtai Liquor, Shuijingfang, and ST Spring are expected to report losses. Proactive destocking has become a common choice for liquor companies. Shuijingfang's channel inventory fell about 50 percent year-on-year. Shede Spirits controlled shipments to stabilize prices. Jiugui Liquor raised the strategic price of its 52-degree 500ml Neican liquor by 30 yuan per bottle and suspended shipments until August 15. Xiao Zhuqing, a Chinese liquor industry analyst, said consumers are shifting to affordable daily-drinking liquors priced under 100 yuan, and the premium on high-end famous brands is shrinking. Liquor companies need to face consumers directly to digest inventory.
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Liquor stocks rally after first-half profit warnings, some shares back to 2013 levels
On the evening of July 14, several A-share listed liquor companies disclosed their first-half earnings forecasts. The sector's decline widened in the second quarter, with three distillers warning of losses. Yet on July 15, the liquor sector bucked the trend and surged after the market opened. By midday, Golden Seed Winery hit its daily limit up, Gujing Distillery rose 8.72 percent, and Shunxin Agriculture and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu both gained over 6 percent. Despite the short-term share price rebound, after three years of deep industry adjustment, some stocks have fallen back to the starting point of the previous upcycle. Shunxin Agriculture traded at 10.87 yuan at midday, a level last seen in June 2013. Yanghe Brewery stood at 39.91 yuan, back to around December 2013. Shares of Shede Spirits, Gujing Distillery, Luzhou Laojiao and others have also retreated to ranges seen around 2019 to 2020. Earlier, multiple institutions published research reports bullish on the liquor sector bottoming out, noting that distillers' operating strategies have shifted this year. Short- to medium-term tactics broadly focus on destocking, stabilizing price levels, boosting sales, and strengthening direct-to-consumer engagement. The trend of proactive supply-side destocking and balance-sheet cleanup continues. Second-quarter results are expected to show a mixed picture of declines and growth. As the peak consumption season arrives in the second half, sales momentum is likely to recover further. Independent liquor commentator Xiao Zhuqing argues that the current earnings decline is the result of three long-term structural contradictions resonating across consumption, usage scenarios, and distribution channels, rather than a short-term market fluctuation. In particular, the contraction in government and corporate consumption is a systemic, long-term variable. Restoring consumer confidence requires a supportive macro cycle. The trillion-yuan inventory overhang in distribution channels will need at least one to two years to slowly clear.
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