Oil Market Glut Narrative Collapses as Supply Chokepoints Are Blocked

CommodityGeopoliticsMacro Impact 5
โดย Oilprice.com·Read original
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The oil market's glut narrative has blown up as two critical chokepoints are now blocked and Kazakh exports are suspended. Brent crude topped $100 per barrel after Yemen's Houthis struck Saudi tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which had been handling 4 to 5 million barrels daily of Saudi oil, while the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a trickle from its usual 20 million barrels per day. Ukrainian drone strikes on the Caspian Pipeline System's Novorossiysk terminal forced Kazakhstan to suspend most of its 1.7 million barrels per day in exports. Global refining margins hit an all-time high, and demand destruction is already evident with European diesel consumption down 5.7% in May and Chinese diesel demand falling 10%. The World Bank now expects the global economy to expand by only 1.3% this year, down from 2.9% last year, as the supply disruptions raise the danger of a global recession.

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