Oil price surge toward $100 reignites inflation fears as ECB holds rates

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A spike in oil prices toward $100 a barrel pushed European government borrowing costs to long-term highs and prompted hawkish signals from the European Central Bank as it held interest rates steady at 2.25%. Brent crude jumped almost 5% to more than $98 a barrel after Iran-aligned Houthis said they struck two Saudi oil tankers, threatening a second chokepoint alongside Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. carried out a 12th successive night of strikes on Iran. Germany's 10-year bund yield rose above 3.2% for the first time since 2011, and the ECB said uncertainty remains high with the full inflationary impact of the energy shock yet to play out, keeping the door open for a rate hike in September. Markets see a four-in-five chance of a hike at the next meeting, and Morgan Stanley analysts maintained their call for a September increase if energy prices stay elevated. In currency markets, the euro dipped below $1.14 and the Japanese yen slipped back to a 40-year low against the dollar.

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