Meta Platforms Inc.Oppenheimer's Helfstein is skeptical Meta can reach ~115M paying Muse subscribers for $28B AI revenue, and Meta's Q2 EPS missed consensus with margin compression and capex surge.

Oppenheimer Managing Director and Senior Analyst Jason Helfstein estimates Meta Platforms would need roughly 115 million paying Muse subscribers at $20 per month to generate about $27.5 to $28 billion in annual AI agent revenue, but he is skeptical that will happen. In a September 2026 note, Helfstein benchmarked Muse conversion against ChatGPT's reported roughly 6% free-to-paid rate and cited doubts about paid conversion, competition from ChatGPT and Gemini, and low consumer trust in sharing passwords with Meta. The skepticism lands against already-elevated expectations: Meta said it saw a 60% increase in the number of people interacting with the assistant each day after integrating Muse Spark, and Barron's recently called Muse potentially the biggest AI launch since ChatGPT. Meta's second quarter showed the tension between AI ambition and AI cost, with revenue of $60.80 billion, up 27.96% year over year, but diluted EPS of 6.18 coming in 14.42% below the $7.22 consensus, snapping a six-quarter beat streak. Operating margin compressed to 31% from 43%, free cash flow collapsed to $784 million as capex jumped 82.1% year over year, and full-year 2026 capex guidance sits at $130 to $145 billion. Meta stock trades around $665.75, up 21.93% over the past month yet down 14.4% over the past year, with consensus 2026 EPS drifting lower on 45 downward revisions against 4 upward revisions over the trailing 30 days.
Meta Platforms Inc.Oppenheimer's Helfstein is skeptical Meta can reach ~115M paying Muse subscribers for $28B AI revenue, and Meta's Q2 EPS missed consensus with margin compression and capex surge.