Pentagon procurement surge to benefit major defense contractors

Lockheed Martin is set to benefit from a US government plan to sell up to 48 F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia, following a notification to Congress in 2026, a package that would mark the first sale of F-35 aircraft to the kingdom. The company also marked the rollout of Germany's first F-35A in 2026, a key step in Berlin's transition to the aircraft. The Saudi notification for up to 48 F-35s would, if approved and executed, add a new Gulf customer to a platform already adopted by 20 nations and operating from 42 bases worldwide, extending an existing global footprint rather than creating a new product line. The next concrete waypoint is formal progression of the Saudi sale through Congress after the 2026 notification, which would turn a proposed package into a contracted backlog line, while for Germany investors can track the first eight F-35 deliveries to Ebbing Air National Guard Base for pilot training beginning this fall. Lockheed Martin, a US aerospace and defense group with a market cap of about $124.2b, designs and builds combat aircraft like the F-35 along with a wide range of military technology systems for governments in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and other regions.

S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase by +24% from the same period last year in the third quarter, the 8th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index, according to Zacks Investment Research. Earnings are expected to be above the year-earlier level for 14 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with 5 sectors expected to enjoy double-digit growth: Aerospace up +159.3%, Energy up +111.9%, Tech up +41.9%, Basic Materials up +31.2%, and Transportation up +15.1%. The Conglomerates sector is the only one expected to have lower earnings in Q3 relative to the same period last year, down 35.4%, while Consumer Staples earnings are expected to be flat. Excluding the Energy sector, Q3 earnings growth for the S&P 500 drops to +20% from +24%, and excluding the Tech sector, growth for the rest of the index drops to +14.4%. Nvidia's Q3 earnings are expected to increase +90% year-over-year on +91.2% higher revenues, while Micron's year-over-year earnings and revenue growth rates are expected to be +938% and +348.6%, respectively, and Tech sector earnings growth gets cut by slightly more than half once contributions from Nvidia and Micron are excluded. The Q3 earnings season will get the spotlight when the big banks report on October 13th, but the reporting cycle actually got underway with the September 10th quarterly releases from Oracle and Adobe, followed by homebuilder Lennar as the third S&P 500 member to report such Q3 results, with an additional six index members on deck this week including Costco, AutoZone and Darden. Total Q3 earnings for the three S&P 500 members that have reported results already are up +22.6% from the same period last year on +14.9% higher revenues, with 33.3% beating EPS estimates and 66.7% besting revenue estimates.