Fighter jets and warships are just "launch platforms." What really decides a war is the missile that flies off them — a guided weapon that sees its target, thinks for itself, and turns toward the target on its own. From the Patriot interceptor that knocks ballistic missiles out of the sky to the Javelin anti-tank missile, this lesson tells you how these missiles work, why they're the heart of modern warfare, and why — after Ukraine and the Middle East — the whole world just realized it "can't make missiles as fast as it fires them."
Lockheed Martin Signs JATM Framework Agreement With U.S. Department of War
The U.S. Department of War signed a landmark framework agreement with Lockheed Martin to rapidly scale production and delivery of the AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile, establishing a multi-year procurement pathway under the Trump administration's "Arsenal of Freedom" framework. The AIM-260 JATM is designed to replace the legacy AIM-120 AMRAAM with significantly extended range, advanced signal processing and superior lethality against peer and near-peer air threats. Lockheed Martin is the lead prime contractor, while Northrop Grumman supplies advanced solid rocket motors, warheads and sensor technologies and has delivered more than 1 million tactical solid rocket motors. RTX Corporation, the legacy manufacturer of AMRAAM, is working with the U.S. government and NATO allies to scale AMRAAM production to at least 1,900 units per year, and Boeing and General Dynamics also stand to benefit as suppliers of navigation, guidance, energetics and structural components. The framework is expected to benefit defense-focused exchange-traded funds, including the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF with $12.54 billion in net assets, the Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF with a market value of $7.63 billion, and the State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF with $6.13 billion in assets under management.
State Department Approves $5.75 Billion in Potential Arms Sales to Saudi Arabia
The State Department has approved two potential arms sales to Saudi Arabia totaling $5.75 billion, split between a $5 billion package of JDAM-ER guidance kits and bombs and a separate $750 million deal for AGT-1500 tank engines. The JDAM package consists of 5,004 KMU-572 and 5,000 KMU-556 JDAM guidance kits and 5,004 BLU-111 and 5,000 BLU-117 bombs, with Boeing identified as principal contractor for the JDAM-ERs and Honeywell handling the engines. The State Department said the sales would strengthen Saudi Arabia's airborne defense capabilities and improve interoperability with U.S. and Gulf partner forces. For Boeing, the deal is modest against its roughly $85 billion Defense, Space and Security backlog, of which international orders already account for 27%, and the segment reported a second-quarter operating loss largely on charges tied to the VC-25B Air Force One program. For Honeywell Aerospace, the smaller AGT-1500 contract fits its established defense propulsion business and adds to an international defense business that makes up about 30% of its total Defense and Space revenue. Neither potential sale is large enough to meaningfully affect either company's short-term results on its own.
State Department Approves $24.3B F-35 Sale to Saudi Arabia
The State Department has approved a potential $24.3B sale of F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter jets built by Lockheed Martin to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia requested 48 F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter aircraft, 49 Pratt & Whitney F135-PW-100 engines and other equipment. The proposed sale, which would require congressional approval, will strengthen Saudi Arabia's homeland defense and improve interoperability with U.S., regional and NATO forces, the State Department said, adding that it will not alter the military balance in the region or adversely impact U.S. defense readiness. The Saudi embassy in Washington said the proposed F-35 sale reflects the strength and enduring nature of the Saudi-U.S. strategic partnership and the continued advancement of defense cooperation. The approval follows other U.S. arms deals cleared with Saudi Arabia this year, including a $5B sale of bombs and guidance kits and a $1.96B sale of Advanced Precision Kill Weapon Systems.
GM Begins Supplying Patriot Missile Components to Lockheed Martin
General Motors has started supplying missile-housing components for Lockheed Martin's Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptors, delivering its first batch in August. Lockheed said GM completed work that typically takes months in three weeks. CEO Mary Barra told analysts this summer she expects $700 million of defense revenue this year at double-digit margins. The opportunity comes as Lockheed Martin faces a significant production ramp, with the Pentagon ordering it to more than triple Patriot output to over 2,000 missiles a year by the end of 2030 while constrained suppliers make scaling difficult. The most advanced Patriot costs over $4 million and takes more than two years to reach the customer, with many key parts largely handmade and sourced from single suppliers such as Boeing, which makes the seeker.
Generac Jumps on $8 Billion Amazon Backup Generator Deal
Generac shares surged 31% after the company and Amazon executed a long-term supply agreement for backup generators for Amazon's data centers, a deal worth up to $8 billion that includes initial deliveries totaling $2.4 billion in 2027 and 2028 and warrants allowing an Amazon subsidiary to buy Generac shares through 2033. CoreWeave kicked off a fresh round of fundraising that includes a $3 billion convertible bond issue and an at-the-market offering program allowing it to sell as many as 35 million shares from time to time, saying the program will provide financing flexibility and help migrate its credit profile toward investment grade. Lockheed Martin moved on news that the Pentagon and the company struck a framework agreement for a multi-year production contract for the Joint Advanced Tactical Missile, or JATM, which is still in development but close to entering production and would become the most advanced air-to-air missile in the US arsenal, a role long held by RTX's advanced medium range air-to-air missile since 1993; the new missile program is receiving a $2 billion boost in the Trump administration's proposed budget for the fiscal year starting October 1. Boeing faces hard months ahead as CEO Kelly Ortberg and the CFO laid out challenges that surprised investors, including additional testing for the 777X that will spill into next year and a more muted cash outlook.
Lockheed Martin Delivers First GM Defense PAC-3 MSE Components in 22 Days
Lockheed Martin announced the first delivery of mission-critical components produced by GM Defense for the PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement interceptor missile less than one month after the two companies signed a formal contract. The contract was signed Aug. 6, and the first batch of initial PAC-3 MSE housing components was delivered Aug. 28, a 22-day turnaround for components that can traditionally take months to years to produce. Tim Cahill, president of Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control, called the 22-day turnaround a concrete example of merging world-class commercial manufacturing with defense supply chain and production practices. GM Defense leveraged its advanced casting and machining capabilities to meet exacting defense specifications, according to the announcement. Lockheed Martin said it is investing $8-9B to scale munitions production, with new buildings, expansions and thousands of jobs at more than 20 sites across America, and that munitions production and warehousing space will increase almost 50% after planned expansions. The two companies plan to build on the partnership, applying commercial practices across munitions programs and expanding capabilities for future defense systems.
Trump Hopes Iran War Is Near Its End, but Saudi-Houthi Clashes Rage, Risking 4% of Oil Supply
US President Donald Trump told reporters on the evening of Wednesday, September 16, that he hopes the war with Iran, now dragging into its seventh month, is nearing an end, saying Iran wants a deal and that he had been contacted directly by Iran, though he did not disclose further details. The remarks came amid escalating tensions after the Saudi Arabian air force launched strikes in Yemen and Houthi rebels retaliated by firing missiles and sending drones to attack various Saudi cities, including the Red Sea oil port of Yanbu and the Khamis Mushait air base in the south, according to a statement by Yahya Saree, spokesman for the Houthi military. The war erupted on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, before Tehran fired back at Israel and US bases in the Persian Gulf countries. The attack on Saudi Arabia that damaged the East-West oil pipeline has prompted oil traders to warn that if the pipeline is forced to halt shipments for an extended period, as much as 4% of global oil supply could be lost. Saudi authorities have not yet specified when the pipeline will be able to resume operation. The spread of the war into Yemen is also compounding the global energy shortage, after the earlier conflict cut off shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which once carried one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas. As a result, Brent crude traded at around 108 dollars a barrel on Wednesday, near its highest level since May, while US retail diesel prices surged to a record high of more than 6.30 dollars a gallon, which is becoming major political pressure on the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections in November. Axios reported, citing sources, that President Trump is scheduled to meet with leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC, which comprises Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York next Tuesday, September 22, to discuss the next steps in the war with Iran. The conflict between the Saudi-led alliance and the Houthis, which has been underway since 2015 and had once calmed under a ceasefire agreement, flared up violently again after the Houthis declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia last July.
Houthis claim Saudi Arabia dropped 40 bombs on Yemen in 24 hours, say they shot down an F-15
The Houthi group in Yemen said on Wednesday, September 16, that Saudi Arabian warplanes carried out 40 airstrikes across three Yemeni provinces over the past 24 hours. Yahya Saree, the Houthis' military spokesman, said in a statement on X that F-15 fighter jets taking off from King Khalid Air Base in southwestern Saudi Arabia launched strikes on the southwestern province of Taiz, the northeastern province of Marib and the northwestern province of Hajjah. Saudi Arabia has not yet commented on the claim, and there is still no information on deaths, injuries or damage from the reported strikes. Xinhua reported that the latest claim came as cross-border clashes intensified, with the Houthis saying on Wednesday morning that they had fired several missiles and sent several drones at a Saudi Aramco facility in the western Saudi city of Yanbu, as well as firing several ballistic missiles at an air base in the city of Khamis Mushait. They also claimed to have shot down a Saudi F-15 fighter jet with a domestically produced surface-to-air missile over the northeastern Yemeni province of Marib, a report Saudi Arabia has likewise not confirmed or commented on. A Yemeni military official told Xinhua that heavy fighting continued on Wednesday around the Kahbub mountains in the southern province of Lahij, a strategic point near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, with five government soldiers and 10 Houthi fighters killed and several others wounded on both sides.
Guoke Military Industry's 466 million yuan military trade order expected to be delivered within 2026
Guoke Military Industry's management responded on September 17 at the 2026 semi-annual results briefing to market concerns about the delivery progress of the 466 million yuan military trade order and the shift of operating cash flow from positive to negative. Vice Chairman and General Manager Huang Junhua said that the wholly-owned subsidiary Aerospace Jingwei signed a contract last October for 466 million yuan of military trade product engine charge, with a performance period until December 25, 2026. As of the end of 2025, revenue of 32 million yuan had been recognized, and the remaining 434 million yuan is being organized for production, testing, and delivery acceptance in batches, with delivery planned to be completed within 2026. However, the order's implementation is subject to uncertainty from factors such as the international geopolitical environment, overseas demand, procedural compliance approvals, and business negotiation cycles. In the first half of this year, the company's ammunition and equipment segment was under pressure. Net profit of subsidiaries Xianfeng Company and Jiujiang Guoke fell 98% year-on-year and turned from profit to loss respectively. Huang Junhua said this was mainly due to delayed signing of order contracts, with multiple intelligent and new-type ammunition and fuzes still in the research, trial production, and appraisal stage, and that the performance pressure was a phased fluctuation. Net operating cash flow turned from positive to negative year-on-year, mainly because delayed contract signing postponed the disbursement of commencement payments. There has been no trend-based adjustment in the military prepayment model. Contract liabilities surged 232% from the beginning of the period, and inventory growth was due to production and stockpiling organized according to orders in hand. The power expansion project has fully commenced. Once completed, it will expand solid power charge and power module production capacity, taking into account military products, military trade, and commercial aerospace supporting demand. In terms of performance, the company achieved operating revenue of 384 million yuan in the first half of 2026, down 8.02% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 59.0569 million yuan, down 23.41% year-on-year.
RTX Says NASAMS Air Defense Combat-Ready for Australian Army
RTX said Wednesday that its Raytheon Australia business has completed delivery and preparation of a new air defense system for the Australian Army, declaring the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, known as NASAMS, combat-ready. The milestone marks the end of a multiyear development and integration project, with equipment delivered, connected and tested and Australian soldiers trained to operate it. Australia's version pairs locally designed radars from CEA Technologies with a Fire Distribution Centre from Norway's Kongsberg, and Raytheon's mobile launcher is mounted on the Australian-built Hawkei protected vehicle. The system can fire several Raytheon missiles, including the standard AMRAAM, the longer-range AMRAAM-ER and the AIM-9X, and is described as a short-range air defense system protecting a limited geographic area. RTX said combat use of NASAMS has contributed to international demand and that it is investing to increase production, though it disclosed no new order value, revenue forecast or additional Australian procurement tied to the announcement and did not specify how much capacity it plans to add or when it will be available.
SpaceX Reclaims $150 IPO Open Price After Pentagon Confirms On-Orbit Weapons
SpaceX shares rose 5.1% to $151 in mid-morning trading Wednesday, pushing the stock back above the $150 level it first reached when it began trading June 12 following an IPO priced at $135. The catalyst was fresh policy news: U.S. defense officials confirmed on-orbit space-control weapons and highlighted progress on the Golden Dome interceptor program, tied to multibillion-dollar SpaceX contracts awarded earlier this year, pointing investors toward Starshield, SpaceX's national security satellite business, which already holds more than $6 billion in multi-year Space Force contracts for LEO-based communications and sensing. The Pentagon's FY 2027 budget request carries a $17.9 billion Golden Dome line item covering advanced space-based and terrestrial sensors, command and control, kinetic interceptors, and next-generation non-kinetic programs, and SpaceX is the only operator with a proliferated LEO constellation at production scale. The fundamental backdrop supports the move: the August 4 8-K showed Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion, beating the $6.82 billion consensus by 15%, with EPS of -$0.09 versus the -$0.29 estimate, Starlink subscribers doubling to 12.0 million, connectivity revenue up 66% year over year, and enterprise and government revenue climbing 108% on airline partnerships and Starshield contracts. Traditional missile-defense primes Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Northrop Grumman all sit inside the Golden Dome supply chain for interceptors, sensors, and integration, while pure-play space names like Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile tend to move with SpaceX headlines; SpaceX carries a $47.50 billion backlog and $93.52 billion in cash, alongside $18.37 billion in quarterly capex, $15.83 billion of which went into AI compute, with a market cap of roughly $1.16 trillion. Even after Wednesday's rally, SPCX trades 33% below its intraday high of $226 on June 16, and the tell into the close is whether it can hold above $151 and turn the IPO open price into support rather than a ceiling, with the next Starship V3 test flight, any Pentagon follow-on Starshield task orders, and updates on the pending $60 billion Cursor acquisition expected to close in Q3 as near-term catalysts.
World News Roundup: UN Flags Major War as Global Risk, Saudi Arabia Issues Alert, South Korean Court Orders North Korea to Pay 44.6 Billion Won
A United Nations survey found that people around the world are increasingly worried that a large-scale war is a global risk that could materialize in the near future. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia declared a security alert covering multiple areas on Tuesday, September 15, including the city of Mecca and the city of Jeddah, after being repeatedly attacked over the past week by Iran-aligned armed groups. A South Korean court ordered North Korea to pay 44.6 billion won, or 32.5 million US dollars, in damages to the South Korean government over the destruction of the inter-Korean liaison office building in 2020, marking the first time in history that the South Korean government has sued North Korea and won. Meanwhile, the US Congressional Budget Office disclosed that the war between the United States and Iran over the past six months has already consumed more than 38 billion US dollars in budget spending, with that figure expected to rise by another 3 billion US dollars per month, and it could push inflation up by 0.5% during the first three months of 2027. Separately, Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said in an interview with Bloomberg Television yesterday that Thailand may impose an excise tax of around 30% on fully imported electric vehicles, the first disclosure of the rate that could be used to encourage automakers to produce in the country.
US warns citizens to reconsider travel to Saudi Arabia over Iranian drone and missile fears
The US State Department issued a warning urging American citizens to reconsider travel to Saudi Arabia, citing heightened security risks from Iranian drone and missile attacks. The travel advisory, published on Tuesday, September 15, stated that the United States and Iran began hostilities on February 28, 2026, and that since then Iranian drone and missile threats targeting US interests have occurred continuously. The warning also stated that the Houthis have threatened to attack Saudi Arabia again, adding that debris falling from intercepted drones and missiles also poses a risk. American citizens living and working near energy infrastructure and military bases may face increased risk, particularly in areas near the Yemeni border, which the department has designated as a Level 4 warning area, or do not travel, the highest warning level. Xinhua reported that the advisory came after Saudi Arabia announced warnings in Mecca and other areas, citing attacks by the Houthis, and Saudi authorities said they intercepted and destroyed Houthi drones in southern Mecca on Tuesday evening before the drones could penetrate the no-fly zone over the holy city. The Houthis later denied the allegations.
CBO Says Iran War Burned $38.1 Billion of U.S. Budget, Depleting Missile Interceptor Stockpile by Two-Thirds
The war with Iran has cost the U.S. Department of Defense a total of $38.1 billion through August 1, and could add another $2 billion to $3 billion per month if the fighting drags on. The Congressional Budget Office, or CBO, estimates that more than half of the cost came from procuring missiles and munitions to replace those expended, while costs from increased flying hours came to $10.4 billion and higher oil prices added another $2.7 billion. The war has also reduced the U.S. stockpile of missile interceptors by as much as two-thirds of the level that existed as of June 2025, largely because the United States helped Israel intercept Iranian attacks, and the CBO says replenishing the stockpile could take at least five years even with expanded production capacity. On the inflation impact, the CBO estimates that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, or PCE, the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely, will rise 0.5 point by the first quarter of 2027, while core PCE is expected to be 0.3 point higher, with gasoline and other fuel prices accounting for roughly 40% of the increase in goods prices caused by the war. The release of the new projections may intensify debate over whether the cost of this war was worthwhile, after Trump initially said the war would last only a few weeks, while Democrats campaign on an anti-war platform ahead of the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.
US Lacks Effective Tools to Halt China's AI Catch-Up as Rare Earth Retaliation Looms
The United States is struggling to find effective means to prevent China from becoming an AI superpower. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, in a 3,800-word essay, called for banning sales of advanced AI semiconductors to China and tightening crackdowns on smuggling, but President Trump has signaled openness to allowing sales of some chips to China, including Nvidia's H200. The biggest challenge for the US is avoiding provoking further tightening of export controls by the Chinese government on rare earths used in precision-guided missiles and drones. Last year, President Trump and President Xi Jinping agreed to a truce in which China guaranteed rare earth supplies in exchange for tariff reductions, and that agreement is likely to be extended when Xi visits the White House next week. Although China still lags in semiconductor production, AI models developed by companies such as DeepSeek and Moonshot AI are narrowing the capability gap with the most advanced US models, often at a fraction of the cost.
US Said to Plan $2.8B Bomb Sale to Israel, Largest in Years
The United States is preparing to provide Israel with thousands of bombs, the largest single transfer of such weapons in years, in a potential arms package worth as much as $2.8B, The Washington Post reported. The proposed sale is the latest in a series of Trump administration steps to improve Israel's military capacity. The package includes as many as 20,000 MK-84s and 20,000 BLU-117s, as well as up to 20,000 I-2000 Penetrator warheads, weapons described as extremely lethal. Separately, the Iran war has cost an estimated $33.4B as of June 29, according to a report on Operation Epic Fury from the lead inspector general of the Department of Defense submitted to Congress. Iranian strikes destroyed or damaged dozens of U.S. aircraft and drones, including four F-15E fighter jets, one F-35A and one A-10, with the F-35A costing about $92M per plane and the F-15E over $60M per unit.
Pentagon Inks Missile Production Deals With Boeing and RTX
The Pentagon announced framework agreements with The Boeing Company and RTX Corporation on August 14 to increase component production for the SM-3 Block IIA and SM-3 Block IB interceptors, part of a group of ship-fired, surface-to-air interceptors underpinning the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System. The announcement had little impact on the shares, with Boeing down around 0.4% and RTX down about 1% during the day. The move is part of a broader buildup: RTX alone inked five separate Pentagon deals earlier this year to boost output of Tomahawk cruise missiles, AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, and the Standard Missile family, with Tomahawk production expected to increase sixteenfold, from approximately 60 to 1,000 units per year. Congress has backed the effort, with the 2026 defense spending bill providing multiyear procurement authority for eight critical munitions and more than $6.3 billion for 13 critical munitions, while the Pentagon's fiscal 2027 budget request calls for roughly $95 billion in missile procurement. RTX's backlog reached a record $289 billion by the second quarter of 2026, and Boeing is a key contractor supporting Aegis-related and other interceptor programs, though hedge fund ownership fell for both companies between the first and second quarters, from 99 to 90 funds for Boeing and from 95 to 92 for RTX.
RTX Projects Growth on $289B Backlog as Empire State Manufacturing Cools
RTX Chairman and CEO Chris Calio told Morgan Stanley's annual Laguna Conference that the aerospace and defense company holds a backlog of approximately $289 billion, excluding five major munitions framework agreements and a recently awarded seven-year, $23 billion Tomahawk contract. Calio projected medium-term operating margins of 19%-20% for Collins Aerospace and 2026 free cash flow of about $8.6 billion, noting that about 48% of Raytheon's backlog is international, up four percentage points from a year earlier. Separately, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 7.6 in September from 20.6 in August, missing the 14.1 consensus, with new orders slowing sharply to 2.0 from 17.3 and shipments turning negative at -3.2. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the House Financial Services Committee that the federal deficit-to-GDP ratio declined to 5.7%-5.8% for fiscal year 2026, down from approximately 6.3% inherited from the prior administration. The U.S. FDA also announced the Expedited IND Pilot Program under HHS' Operation TrialBlazer, accepting applications through Oct. 30 and expecting to select eight to 10 sponsor-institution pairs.
RTX CEO Calio Sees Defense and Aerospace Demand Driving Cash-Flow Growth
RTX Chairman and Chief Executive Chris Calio said strong demand for air travel and rising global defense spending should support the aerospace and defense company's growth for years, speaking Tuesday with Morgan Stanley analyst Christine Liwag at the firm's 14th Annual Laguna Conference. Calio said RTX has a backlog of about $289 billion, a figure that does not include five framework agreements covering major munitions programs or a recently awarded seven-year, $23 billion Tomahawk contract, and that volumes under the five agreements could rise by two to four times. About 48% of Raytheon's backlog is international, up four percentage points from a year earlier, and sensors and effectors account for about 70% of the unit's sales, with the Coyote counter-drone system having recorded more than 600 drone defeats in operational settings. On the commercial side, RTX expects to deliver a record number of geared turbofan engines this year, and GTF maintenance output rose 40% from a year earlier in the second quarter, helping reduce aircraft-on-ground levels by 25% since the end of 2025. RTX continues to target a medium-term operating margin of 19% to 20% at Collins Aerospace and expects 2026 free cash flow of about $8.6 billion at the midpoint of its forecast, with Calio describing the dividend as sacrosanct.
Iran War Cost Reaches $33.4B as U.S. Munitions Shortfalls Mount
The Iran war has cost an estimated $33.4B as of June 29, according to a report on Operation Epic Fury from the Lead Inspector General of the Department of Defense submitted to Congress. That total comprises $22.3B for expended munitions, $7.4B of cumulative obligations for incremental Operation Epic Fury costs, and $3.7B in equipment losses, and it excludes costs for infrastructure repairs. The munitions expenditure has resulted in strategic inventory shortfalls and revealed industrial base bottlenecks for munitions resupply, according to the Office of the Under Secretary for Acquisition and Sustainment. Iranian strikes destroyed or damaged dozens of U.S. aircraft and drones, including four F-15E fighter jets, one F-35A and one A-10, with the F-35A costing roughly $92M per plane and the F-15E over $60M per unit, while hundreds of buildings at U.S. bases across Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan were also damaged. Damage to U.S. diplomatic facilities in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE is estimated at about $184M, and the report noted seven U.S. service members killed in action from Feb. 28 to June 30, seven killed in non-hostile events during Operation Epic Fury combat operations, and 417 wounded in action.
Houthis Launch New Attacks on Saudi Arabia, Disrupting Global Oil Exports
Yemeni officials revealed that the Iran-backed Houthi rebels have launched a new wave of attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia, while advancing to seize trench-digging positions along the Red Sea coast, forcing the Saudi government to urgently convene an emergency meeting in Riyadh to find a rapid response. Meanwhile, the Gulf Arab states announced they are postponing negotiations with Iran, deepening fears that the war will widen and disrupt global oil exports. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said on the morning of September 15 via X that the stakes over oil and the strategic strait have now changed, and stressed that there will be no negotiations whatsoever until Iran's conditions are met. On the same day, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds surged to its highest level in 19 years, or since 2007, as investors heavily sold off bonds ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. Meanwhile, China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's retail sales rose only 0.4% in August year-on-year, slowing from a 0.6% rise in July and below analysts' expectations of a 0.8% increase. Industrial output in August jumped 5.2%, accelerating from a 4.5% rise in July and stronger than analysts' expectations of a 4.8% increase. Anthropic launched the Claude for Financial Advisors toolset to help financial advisors by connecting the Claude chatbot to investment data analysis systems and wealth management software from leading firms such as BlackRock, Charles Schwab, and Addepar.
Northrop Grumman, Air Force assemble inert Sentinel missile ahead of 2027 flight test
Northrop Grumman and the U.S. Air Force assembled a fully integrated inert Sentinel missile at Vandenberg Space Force Base, clearing a key technical milestone ahead of flight testing planned for 2027. The missile was stacked vertically in its operational orientation during a four-month exercise known as Pathfinder, which tested whether the program team could transport, handle, stack and integrate the missile safely at a launch site. The exercise included all missile stages, propulsion elements, the protective shroud and related components, along with specialized transportation vehicles, mobile crane operations and launch pad interfaces; the inert missile was taken apart after the exercise. Separately, Northrop Grumman and the Air Force's 719th Test Squadron completed the first flight-test Critical Design Review, which determined that the missile's design maturity and hardware testing met Air Force requirements for performance, safety and scheduling. Amanda Davis, vice president and general manager of strategic deterrent systems at Northrop Grumman, said the vertical assembly demonstrates momentum toward test launching Sentinel in 2027 and having missiles on alert by the early 2030s. Northrop leads a nationwide Sentinel team of more than 500 suppliers and over 10,000 workers, and the planned system is intended to remain operational through 2075 as the Air Force replaces the aging Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile system.
Fed Expected to Hike Rates as AI Fears and Iran War Rattle Markets
Pre-market futures fell Monday as AI concerns and the ongoing war in Iran weighed on sentiment, with the Dow down 184 points, the Nasdaq down 469 and the S&P 500 down 48 points. A former OpenAI and Anthropic employee warned of dangers to humanity from unregulated AI, sending Marvell Technologies and AMD down more than 6% in early trading while software makers CrowdStrike and ServiceNow rose. Oil prices climbed 4% to $104 per barrel on WTI and $109 per barrel on Brent crude, with $120 oil now seen as a real near-term possibility. The 10-year bond yield reached 4.983%, its highest since briefly touching 5% three years ago, while the 2-year stood at 4.647%. The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with odds of a 25 basis point hike to 3.75-4.00% now around 80% following last week's Consumer Price Index, though Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure from President Trump to hold rates steady.
Saudi Crown Prince Discusses CENTCOM Commander Amid Houthi Tightening Grip on Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud discussed the latest regional situation and bilateral relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States during a meeting with Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of United States Central Command, or CENTCOM, in Jeddah today. The meeting took place amid intense clashes between the Houthi group in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Reuters reported that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman asked President Donald Trump for military assistance to strike the Houthis in Yemen, but President Trump declined to approve direct U.S. military strikes on the Houthis. Meanwhile, the Houthis disclosed today that they fired long-range missiles and sent dozens of drones to attack an air base in southwestern Saudi Arabia. In addition, last Thursday the Houthis seized the strategic port city of Mokha, then pushed south into the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Friday and captured Mayun Island, located in the middle of the strait, enabling the Houthis to tighten their control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which is vital to shipping and connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
Defense and space firms turn to SPACs as investor appetite surges
Early-stage defense and space companies are increasingly turning to SPAC mergers to go public this year, drawn by flexible capital and a faster route to market amid surging investor interest in the sector. Six defense, space or satellite-related companies have announced SPAC mergers so far this year, accounting for about 10% of all deals, up from three in all of 2025, according to SPACInsider data. U.S. defense firm Ursa Major, which develops propulsion systems for missiles and rockets, agreed to a $2.3-billion SPAC deal last month, and CEO Chris Spagnoletti told Reuters that customer demand was outpacing industry supply and the transaction would provide capital to close that gap. At least seven other defense and space companies have gone public through traditional IPOs so far in 2026, according to LSEG data, while nine SPACs are currently seeking defense or space targets with about $2.35 billion held in trust, SPACInsider CEO Kristi Marvin said. National security has taken center stage as the Trump administration seeks to strengthen U.S. defenses, with President Donald Trump proposing a sharp increase in 2027 U.S. defense spending to a national defense budget totaling about $1.5 trillion, up from the enacted budget of $901 billion in 2026.
North Korea Conducts Missile and Attack Drone Drills After US-Japan-South Korea Wrap Up Freedom Edge Exercises
North Korea revealed on September 14 that it had held drills involving ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and attack drones, just one day after Japan, South Korea, and the United States completed their military exercises. Earlier, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff disclosed on Saturday, September 12, that South Korea had detected the launch of multiple missiles from the Wonsan area on North Korea's east coast toward the Sea of Japan, with the missiles traveling about 250 kilometers. The Korean Central News Agency reported that Kim Jong Un, North Korea's leader, did not attend this live-fire drill, which was commanded by Pak Jong Chon, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of North Korea's ruling party, and Yu Chang Son, head of the North Korean military's artillery bureau. Kyodo News reported that this drill, which included the use of large multiple rocket launchers, aimed to familiarize the military with the operating procedures of an integrated personnel control system and to enhance the strategic counter-response readiness of attack units at all levels. Meanwhile, Rodong Sinmun, North Korea's official newspaper, did not report on the drill last Saturday and has not published any article about the country's missile launches since August, in contrast to the traditional practice of state media, which usually announces missile launch news the following morning. Japan, South Korea, and the United States completed the five-day Freedom Edge exercise on Friday, September 11, which focused on real-time information sharing and the integration of air, maritime, missile defense, cyber, and medical capabilities.
UBS Upgrades Lockheed Martin, JPMorgan Upgrades Meta in Week of Analyst Calls
UBS upgraded Lockheed Martin to Buy from Neutral, arguing accelerating missile production, rising defense spending and growth beyond the F-35 franchise could drive earnings above Wall Street expectations. Analyst Gavin Parsons expects Lockheed revenue to grow at a compound annual rate of approximately 9% through 2028, with UBS projecting revenue of $81.05 billion in 2026, $88.48 billion in 2027 and $96.13 billion in 2028, the last about 6% above consensus, and adjusted earnings of $30.69 a share in 2026, $34.50 in 2027 and $39.34 in 2028, 12% above consensus. JPMorgan upgraded Meta Platforms to Overweight from Neutral with an $820 price target, implying a 25% increase from last close, citing upside from the launch of its AI assistant and frontier models. Morgan Stanley downgraded Novo Nordisk to Underweight from Equal-weight on semaglutide loss-of-exclusivity concerns, while Northland Securities upgraded Intel to Outperform from Market Perform with a $120 price target, and UBS cut NuScale Power to Sell from Neutral with a $6 price target, slashed from $10.
Iran Lawmaker Says NPT No Longer Binding as Brent Tops $109
Mohammadreza Mohseni-Sani, a member of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said on September 12, 2026, that Tehran no longer regards the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as binding, though no formal withdrawal notice has been filed with the treaty's depositaries in Washington, London or Moscow. Brent crude added $13.49 a barrel over eight sessions, rising from $96.02 on September 1 to $109.51 on September 9, after US strikes on Iran resumed on September 2. Gold, which typically climbs on war risk, instead fell to $4,318.89 an ounce on September 11 from $4,683.72 on August 25, signaling dollar strength and inflation-adjusted yields are overpowering the safe-haven bid. Bitcoin closed at $77,231 on September 12, down from a $79,852 intraday high the day before, while the VIX closed at 17.84 on September 10, up 16.8% from a month earlier but still inside its 15 to 20 normal range. Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month in August 2026 against 0.2% expected, leaving the Federal Reserve at a 3.75% upper bound unchanged since December 2025, and analysts say the chain from Tehran to Bitcoin only becomes tradeable if a formal withdrawal is filed or a Strait of Hormuz closure pushes Brent through $120 a barrel.
Pezeshkian Says Iran Will Not Surrender to the US as Modi Calls for Peace Talks
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that Iran will not surrender to the United States and insisted his country can withstand aggression from the US and Israel, speaking during an address to a group of Indian religious leaders in New Delhi ahead of the BRICS summit in India this weekend. The remarks came after US President Donald Trump said that if Washington does not take military action against Iran, Iran could destroy Israel and the Middle East. Pezeshkian, on his first visit to India, met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who expressed concern about the safety of crew members and stressed the need for peace, freedom of navigation and trade, while calling for the conflict in the Middle East to be resolved through negotiation and diplomacy. Oil and goods shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to a near standstill since the US and Israel began their war with Iran on February 28, leaving ships and crews stranded for weeks or months, while global crude prices have surged amid the intensity of the war this month, raising concerns for India, which imports nearly 85% of its fuel needs and depends on energy supply chains through the Strait of Hormuz. In July, two ships carrying a total of 30 Indian crew members were attacked while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Indian government said 10 crew members died in the Middle East conflict.
North Korea fires multiple missiles into Sea of Japan after trilateral drills conclude
North Korea fired multiple missiles into the Sea of Japan today, after South Korea, Japan and the United States wrapped up their trilateral joint drills. South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said the missiles were launched from the Wonsan area in eastern North Korea at about 05:20 and flew roughly 250 kilometres. The Freedom Edge exercise ran from Monday to Friday and covered real-time information sharing as well as coordination of air, maritime, missile defence, cyber and medical capabilities. Earlier, North Korean Defence Minister Kim Song Gi criticised the drills as a major security threat, pledging to take strong and appropriate countermeasures. The latest launch came three weeks after North Korea fired about 12 short-range ballistic missiles eastward from an area near Pyongyang on 20 August.
Crude oil closes above $100 after worst attack on cargo ships since US-Iran war
West Texas and Brent crude futures both closed above $100 a barrel as investors feared that supply tightness would intensify, after reports of the largest attack on cargo ships since the war between the United States and Iran began in late February. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump of the United States insisted he does not regret deciding to launch war against Iran, and Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, revealed on Thursday, September 10, that the US government will sanction a major bank next week to pressure Iran into ending a war that has lasted more than six months. The news website Axios reported, citing two US officials, that Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, called President Trump twice last Thursday to urge the United States to launch strikes on the Houthis, but President Trump rejected the request. On the economic front, The Wall Street Journal reported that the US Department of Defense is negotiating a loan of about $5 billion for Fluidstack, an AI cloud startup, to strengthen the US data center supply chain. Meanwhile, Micron Technology announced total compensation for direct production-line employees in Taiwan of up to the equivalent of 35 to 68 months' salary, or at least NT$1.7 million in cash, for fiscal year 2026, and Samsung Electronics and Qualcomm have still not reached an agreement to hire Samsung to produce processor chips using 2-nanometer technology, as they cannot agree on price, which could push production back to next year.
Trump says he has no regrets about starting Iran war, ready to sanction major bank next week
US President Donald Trump has stated he has not the slightest regret over his decision to launch war with Iran, vowing that if he had to do it again he would do exactly the same, even though the conflict has political implications for the US midterm elections. In an interview with Fox News anchor Laura Ingraham on Thursday, September 10, US time, Trump said that if Iran were allowed to have nuclear weapons, the Iranian government would wipe out Israel and the Middle East entirely, and would also launch missiles at cities across the United States. Trump's stance comes as global financial markets brace for a potentially protracted Iran war, after reports that key Trump advisers, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, warned the Iran war could drag on for the remainder of Trump's term and could even extend past the presidential inauguration in January 2029. However, Trump continues to insist on claims he has repeated for months that the fighting will end immediately after the midterm elections conclude and will cause oil and natural gas prices to fall as a result. On the economic front, the US government continues to cut Iran off from the global financial network, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealing that the US government will sanction a major bank next week, a measure originally scheduled for announcement today, September 11, but postponed due to commemorations marking the 25th anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks. Bessent added that the US government had previously sanctioned Egypt's second-largest bank, forcing the closure of its Dubai branch, after finding it had processed transactions transferring up to 1.8 billion US dollars to Iran, and that Turkey's largest bank had also been sanctioned for transactions with Iran, although Bessent did not name the two banks specifically.
Iran resumes ballistic missile production at underground facility
Iran has been found to have resumed production of ballistic missiles at an underground facility using stockpiled components. US and Middle Eastern officials were reported to have revealed this. Despite heavy attacks on missile-related facilities in the early stages of the war, Iran is now proceeding with the assembly of liquid-fuel missiles, which require fueling immediately before launch, and solid-fuel missiles, which can be stored in a launch-ready state.
NY Crude Tops $100 a Barrel as Middle East Tensions Drive Eighth Straight Gain
Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose for an eighth consecutive session on the 10th, as buying accelerated amid escalating Middle East tensions. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate broke through $100 a barrel in morning trading and settled at $102.48 a barrel, up $6.43, or 6.69%, from the previous day, marking its highest level in roughly four months since mid-May. Market pessimism over an early return to normal in the Middle East has deepened after U.S. President Trump suggested on the 9th that a military campaign against Iran would conclude only after the U.S. midterm elections in November. On the 10th, reports that Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi militant group is strengthening its control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait along the Red Sea coast, along with reports that Saudi Arabia's crude output fell sharply last month, raised concerns that energy shipments through the Red Sea, in addition to the Strait of Hormuz, could also be threatened. Amid the surge in crude prices, stocks fell for a fourth straight session, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 316.56 points at 52,064.10 and the Nasdaq Composite closing 171.62 points lower at 26,081.72.
Dow futures reversed into a decline of more than 100 points after West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged past $100 per barrel, fueling investor worries about inflation and interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. As of 8:04 p.m. Thailand time, Dow futures were down 104 points, or 0.20%, at 52,321. Brent crude also surged past $105 per barrel amid tensions between the United States and Iran that have investors concerned about disruptions to oil supply from the Middle East. The Wall Street Journal reported that advisers to President Donald Trump warned the Iran war could drag on for the remainder of Trump's term, and Dan Struyven, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said the escalating violence in a conflict now in its seventh month is raising the risk that oil prices could spike above $120 per barrel. Meanwhile, the US Labor Department reported the August producer price index. The headline PPI rose 5.4% year on year, above analysts' forecast of 5.3% and up from 4.8% in July, while on a monthly basis it rose 0.4%, in line with expectations, after a 0.1% gain in July. Core PPI rose 4.6% year on year, in line with expectations, from 4.3% in July, and on a monthly basis it rose 0.2%, below the forecast of 0.3%, from 0.3% in July.
Trump Threatens Heavy Strikes on Iran After Activity Detected at Pickaxe Mountain Nuclear Site
US President Donald Trump issued a warning to Iran over activity at Pickaxe Mountain, which is suspected of being linked to a nuclear programme, threatening that if Iran proceeds with reviving its nuclear programme, the United States may have to respond with heavy strikes. Speaking on Wednesday at a Republican Party convention ahead of the midterm elections, Trump said the United States had observed certain activity at Pickaxe Mountain and warned Iran against actions that could be considered provocative. An analysis of satellite imagery by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, published on Wednesday, found that in 2026 there was more movement on roads around Pickaxe Mountain than at any time since monitoring of the area began, along with a clear increase in construction activity. The latest data suggests activity in the area may be shifting from excavation to internal construction and reinforcement of external structures. However, CSIS said it could neither confirm nor refute reports that Iran has moved uranium enrichment centrifuges into Pickaxe Mountain. Still, the rapid increase in activity in the area, located only about 2 kilometres from the former nuclear facility at Natanz, is suspicious and warrants close attention. Tensions rose further when Iran disclosed on Wednesday that it had fired long-range missiles at a US base in Jordan and attacked 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping channel that normally carries about 20% of the world's oil. Earlier, US Central Command, or CENTCOM, said US forces had destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in response to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which used missiles to attack US Navy warships twice within two days. As a result, the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged past 100 dollars a barrel for the first time since July before trading on Thursday morning at around 100.40 dollars a barrel, down 0.8%. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to 95.51 dollars a barrel.
Iran Threatens to Escalate War with US; Trump Expects It to End After Midterms
Iran has signaled it is ready to escalate its war with the United States to a more intense level and will step up retaliatory strikes if the US continues to attack its territory and infrastructure. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump believes the war, now in its seventh month, could end within a few weeks and expects it to conclude immediately after the US midterm elections in November, scheduled for November 3. An unnamed senior Iranian official said Tehran has no intention of backing down under pressure from the US naval blockade and attacks on Iranian oil tankers, even as domestic economic pressure intensifies, with inflation accelerating to nearly 90% and the rial depreciating rapidly. But Iran's leadership sees the war with the US as a threat to the country's very existence, leaving it with little choice but to keep fighting. There is still no sign of the fighting easing. The US disclosed that one of its warships had to evade an Iranian attack before the US responded by destroying five Iranian energy tankers. Tehran then fired about 20 missiles at an air base in Jordan used by US forces, and also attacked US Navy vessels and several commercial ships. The Wall Street Journal reported that senior US government officials, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, raised the possibility that Iran may refuse to soften its stance even as the US increases pressure, and that the war could drag on through the remainder of Trump's presidential term, which ends in January 2029. Energy prices have risen sharply, with Brent crude topping 100 dollars a barrel on Wednesday, bringing its gain to about 65% since the start of the year, while diesel prices at US service stations hit a record high last week.
Kasikorn Thai expects SET today in a 1,610-1,630 range, Brent crude breaks above $100
Kasikorn Securities estimates the SET Index will move in a range of 1,610 to 1,630 points today, with the main pressure coming from the Middle East situation, after Brent crude oil prices surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since July, driven by escalating conflict between the United States and Iran and risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year US government bonds rose to 4.84%, the highest since 2023, after the government announced a plan to buy back long-term bonds worth up to 6 billion dollars, which was lower than the market expected. Yesterday, the SET Index closed at 1,617.89 points, down 4.00 points, or 0.25%, with foreign investors net buying Thai shares worth 3,136 million baht. Short-term strategy still focuses on waiting for pullbacks to accumulate stocks with strong earnings prospects, with today's standout picks being PTTEP and EASTW.
Trump advisers fear Iran war will drag on until 2029
Key advisers to President Donald Trump are warning that the war between the United States and Iran could drag on for the remainder of Trump's term. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that advisers, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have discussed the possibility that the conflict with Iran will extend beyond the presidential inauguration in January 2029. Those internal discussions differ sharply from many of Trump's and his advisers' public statements, which indicated the war was nearing an end. Trump told reporters on Wednesday that the war would end immediately after the midterm elections in November. The war is set to enter its seventh month in September, far longer than Trump's original target of a four-to-six-week operation. Oil prices surged past 100 US dollars a barrel this week amid a renewed outbreak of military operations between the two sides, and Trump and Republicans are facing growing public discontent over the Iran war, including its impact on the cost of living, a trend analysts say could affect the party's chances in the midterm elections.
Crude oil surges to highest level since May 22 after Iran-US tanker attacks
West Texas and Brent crude prices closed at their highest levels since May 22 after Iran and the United States traded attacks on oil tankers, the largest such strikes since the war began. The October contract for West Texas crude closed at 96.05 dollars per barrel, up 3.02 dollars, or 3.25%. The November contract for North Sea Brent closed at 101.21 dollars per barrel, up 3.29 dollars, or 3.4%, after touching an intraday high of 101.58 dollars per barrel. A senior Iranian official said Tehran is ready for an intensified war and will escalate retaliatory strikes if the United States continues to attack Iranian territory and infrastructure. The United States succeeded in pushing through a resolution condemning Iran, opening the way to refer Iran's nuclear program to the United Nations Security Council and paving the way for new military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. President Donald Trump said the United States is considering new strikes on Iran's suspected nuclear activities.